Written Commentary
by Steve Freed,
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures traded higher and near 8.46. Prices have traded higher in part on hopes US economy will soon be reopen and a bounce in energy prices. Weekly US soybean export sales were below pace to reach USDA goal. USDA announced 272 mt US soybeans were sold to China. There was talk that China may buy 10 mmt US soybean to add to reserves. Weekly US soybean export sales were near 12 mil bu. Total commit is near 1,395 mil bu versus 1,647 last year. USDA goal is 1,775 versus 1,748 last year. Sales need to improve to reach USDA goal. Most are still looking for lower 2020 soybean prices if US 2020 weather is normal. Temporary closing of US meat plants could reduce meat production and soymeal use. US soybean plantings are estimated near 9 pct done.
CORN
Corn futures traded higher and near 3.26. Futures have rallied due to short covering from an oversold tech picture. There was also talk that China may buy US corn to add to reserves. Increase US farmer selling, drop in ethanol demand, forecast of lower cattle placements and slow export demand offers resistance. Most still look for lower 2020 corn futures prices if US 2020 weather is normal. C IL sources report that many farmers have completed both corn and soybean plantings. US corn plantings are now estimated near 24 pct done. US Midwest one week forecast calls for 2 chances of rain this weekend and next week. Amounts could be .25-.75 inches with local 1.50 inches. Weekly US corn export sales were near 28 mil bu. Total commit is near 1,393 mil bu versus 1,790 last year. USDA goal is 1,725 mil bu versus 2,065 last year. Managed funds are net short 160,000 corn contracts. Given drop in demand, it will take a weather scare to trigger fund short covering.
WHEAT
Wheat futures traded mixed to higher. Market continues to consolidate. Dry weather across parts of Europe and Russia offers support. Slow US wheat export sales offered resistance. Argentina estimated their wheat crop near 20.2 mmt up slightly from USDA and exports near 13.4 mmt. Australia estimated their next wheat crop near 23.0 mmt versus 15.2 last year. Wheat futures could trend lower if north Hemisphere weather turns normal. Continued drier pattern in Europe and Black Sea could send prices higher. Weekly US wheat export sales were near 9 mil bu. Total commit is near 935 mil bu vs 931 last year. USDA goal is 985 vs 936 last year. US winter wheat drop is now rated 58 pct good/ex vs 57 last week. Saudi Arabia is tendering for World wheat.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
