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AFS Ag Hedge PM Comments August 7.2025

Full carry (FC) – When considering two futures contracts of the same commodity with two different delivery months, a market in which the price for the contract with the later delivery equals the price of the contract with earlier delivery plus the entire cost of storing the underlying commodity for the remaining period.       
 

Aug 12th WASDE Estimates (Bloomberg)

Corn and Soybean Production Estimates

25/26 Crop

Avg

Low

High

July

Corn Yield 

184.3

181

189

181

Corn Production

15,996

15,705

16,400

15,705

Soybean Yield

53

52

54

52.5

Soybean Production

4,374

4,290

4,450

4,335

 

Wheat Production Estimates

US Ending Stocks

Brazil and Argentina Production

Managed Money Positions (20 years)

Weekly Export Sales (MT) (week ending 8/1)

 

Sales 24/25

Est Range

Sales 25/26

Est Range

Wheat

na

na

737,800

350K-600K

Corn

170,400

200K-400K

3,163,200

1.3M-2.5M

Beans

467,800

100K-300K

545,000

200K-500K

Meal

169,400

100K-200K

112,400

500K-200K

Soyoil

7,000

0-10K

0

0-3K

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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