Written Commentary
OPENING COMMENTS
Widespread Rains in all the right places (now-end of July). Moisture coming up from the gulf may disrupt the Louisiana harvest, but they will have windows to work with come early August
August-November Bean Spread has fallen from a +15¢ inverse to a -7¢ carry in the last month due to the Delta and mid south crop conditions improving -primarily in Louisiana (92% gd/ex this week). They can not easily store grain for longer than 3-40 days due to humidity, so it will have to hit the market. This drives out any sort of premium and may domino into wider carries for the Nov-Jan in the Midwest and north.
CPI (Consumer Price Index) Year-over-year was reported yesterday at 2.7% increase. That is 0.3% higher than May and 0.1% higher than expectations. Core CPI which excludes food and energy was slightly less than expected. Consumer goods have never been as expensive as they are today, but inflation is lower than the peak 9.1% in 2022.
PPI (Producer Price Index) Month-over-month came in lower than expected at 0.2% Expectations were at a +0.2% increase.
Export & World News
Algeria state grains agency bought around 1 million MT of milling wheat in an international tender. Algeria is also in the market to buy about 240K MT of animal feed corn from optional origins. Thailand is in the market to buy up to 60K MT of animal feed wheat.
Malaysian palm oil futures were up 36 ringgit overnight, now at 4182.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.35 (expanded $0.55); Soybeans $0.75 (expanded $1.15); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
Weather Outlook
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