Global Ag News 9.22

TODAY—DELIVERABLE STOCKS

Overnight trade has SRW Wheat up roughly 5 cents, HRW up 6; HRS Wheat up 4, Corn is up 2 cents; Soybeans up 5;  Soymeal up $3.00, and Soyoil down 15 points.

Chinese Ag futures (January) settled down 56 yuan in soybeans, down 7 in Corn, down 30 in Soymeal, down 122 in Soyoil, and down 166 in Palm Oil.

Malaysian palm oil prices were down 65 ringgit at 2,942 (basis December) at midsession weakened by falling global equities, weaker Dalian vegoil prices, and new fears of Europe restrictions over the pandemic.

U.S. Weather Forecast: The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Midwest has another front to work through later Monday into Tuesday bringing light to moderate rainfall. Those rains look to fall mainly in the northeast sections of the Midwest. Temps over the next 5 days look to run average and stay average over the 6 to 10 day period.  The Southern Plains over the 6 to 10 day period sees little to no rains for most of the region. Temps will be average over this period. The Delta has light rains over the 6 to 10 day period in most areas.

South America Weather Forecast: Weather outlook in most production regions is unchanged; showers and a few thunderstorms are still expected in center west and center south Brazil tonight and Wednesday which will begin to moisten the topsoil moisture a little; greater rainfall will be needed though to promote better flowering conditions.

The player sheet had funds net sellers of 20,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; sold 35,000 Corn; sold 16,000 Soybeans; sold 4,000 Soymeal, and; net sold 7,000 Soyoil.

We estimate Managed Money net long 25,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 66,000 Corn; net long 225,000 Soybeans; net long 61,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 95,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 530 contracts; HRW Wheat down 450; Corn up 4,100; Soybeans up 850 contracts; Soymeal up 2,000 lots, and; Soyoil down 2,400.

There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 109 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 222; Soybeans 1; Soyoil 1,907 lots; Soymeal 300; Rice ZER0; HRW Wheat 135, and; HRS 1,195.

Tender Activity—Egypt seeks optional-origin wheat—S. Korea feed groups bought 202,000t optional-origin corn, seeks 69,000t corn; passed on 70,000t optional-origin feed wheat—Thailand bought 180,000t optional-origin feed wheat—

U.S. Winter Wheat planted was 20% (trade estimate was 22%) versus 93% last week, 18% a year ago, 19% average.

U.S. Winter Wheat emerged was 3% (trade estimate was NA%) versus NA% last week, 3% a year ago, 2% average.

U.S. Spring Wheat harvested was 96% (trade estimate was 97%) versus 92% last week, 84% a year ago, 96% average.

U.S. Corn mature was 59% versus 41% a week ago, 26% last year, and 49% average.

U.S. Corn harvested was 8% (trade estimate was 11%) versus 5% a week ago, 6% last year, and 10% average.

Corn was rated 61% good to excellent (trade estimate was 59%) versus 60% last week, and 57% a year ago; 25% fair (25% last week, 30% last year), 14% poor to very poor (15% last week, 13% last year).

U.S. Soybeans dropping leaves was 59% versus 37% a week ago, 29% last year, and 50% average.

U.S. Soybeans harvested was 6% (trade estimate was 5%) versus NA% a week ago, 2% last year, and 6% average.

U.S. Soybeans were rated 63% good to excellent (trade estimate was 62%) versus 63% a week ago, and 54% a year ago; 27% fair (26% last week, 33% a year ago), and; 10% poor to very poor (11% last week, 13% a year ago).

The first two of 16 U.S. Crop Watch fields were harvested last week, though for the most part, the producers report that harvest activity has been on the lighter side and will likely ramp up in the coming days; warm and dry weather across most of the Corn Belt this week will aid in the effort.

Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had:

—Wheat exports running 8% ahead of a year ago (up 8% last week) with the USDA currently forecasting a 1% increase on the year

—Corn 7% ahead of a year ago (up 28% last week) with the USDA up 32% for the season

—Soybeans are up 6% on the year (up 49% last week) with the USDA having a 26% increase forecasted on the year

The White House has dropped a plan to provide funds from the U.S. Department of Agriculture to oil refiners that are denied exemptions from the nation’s biofuel regulations; the Trump administration was considering doling out at least $300 million in cash to the facilities, potentially from the USDA’s Commodity Credit Corporation, triggering an outcry from Midwest lawmakers who argued the money should be used for farmers, not the oil industry.

China has nearly exhausted its reserves of frozen pork, according to new estimates that underscore the supply shortfall in the world’s top protein market two years after the arrival of African swine fever; the level of reserves is a state secret in China, the world’s number one producer, consumer and importer of pork; but Enodo Economics, a London-based consultancy focused on China, estimates that reserves fell by about 452,000 tons between September 2019 and August this year; China has less than 100,000 tons of pork reserves remaining; at this rate, within two to three months they’ll be out.

High soy prices are expected to support planting in Argentina this season, but that will be balanced by dry weather, which is driving farmers across the Pampas grains belt to favor late-season corn, which also has attractive prices; the grain, which is the country’s main cash crop, competes with corn for planting area in Argentina late in the year; corn planting starts in September, soy in October; but by waiting to plant corn in November and December, farmers are betting they can benefit from an increase in showers expected toward the end of the year; dryness has been an issue for Argentine wheat crops over recent months, prompting growers to be risk averse as they make soy versus corn sowing decisions.

Russian wheat export prices rose for the fourth week in a row last week on strong demand from Turkey, Egypt and other major importers and higher Chicago wheat prices; Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loading from Black Sea ports and for supply in October was at $235 a ton free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, up $11 from the previous week, agriculture consultancy IKAR said; Sovecon, another Moscow consultancy, pegged wheat up $6 at $228 a ton at the end of last week.

Ukraine’s 2020 wheat harvest declined to 25.1 million tons from 28.3 million tons in 2019, economy ministry data showed

Farmers in Kazakhstan have threshed 18.2 million tons of grains and pulses from 93.4% of the sown area, with marked improvements in quality compared with the previous harvest; the Central Asian nation has previously said it would harvest about 18 million tons of grains and pulses this year, making 7.5-8.0 million tons available for exports.

Soft wheat exports from the European Union and Britain in the 2020/21 season that started on July 1 totaled 4.14 million tons by Sept. 20, official EU data showed; that was 38% below the volume exported in the previous 2019/20 season

European milling wheat futures fell on Monday, pulling back after hitting five-month highs last week and pressured by falling U.S. markets; front month December was down 0.5% or 1.0 euro at 193.50 euros ($227.17) a ton.

India has raised the price it will pay to buy new-season wheat from local farmers by 2.6% to 1,975 rupees per 100 kg to placate farmers and encourage them to step up planting that begins next month.

Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Sept. 1-20 period are estimated up 17.6% on month at 1,047,269 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said.

By contrast, palm oil shipments to China during 01-15 September declined to 111 thousand tons, down by 39% versus their levels in 01-15 August at 181 thousand tons.