Written Commentary
CRUDE OIL
November Crude Oil held was near unchanged early Wednesday after holding Tuesday’s low. On Tuesday the market fell to the 0.382 retracement of the rally from the July low to this month’s high, and that level 88.47, is acting as support. The market is balancing news of negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz against threatening language that President Trump used towards Iran in his speech at the UN on Tuesday. US envoy Steve Witkoff said that the United States and Iran engaged in lengthy talks on Tuesday on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, via mediators. A senior Iranian official said this week that Tehran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within days if the US eased military pressure and lifted its blockade on Iranian ports. News that Saudi Arabia has restarted operations at its East-West Pipeline and was on the cusp of resuming exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu (at reduced volumes) offers some hope of supply relief as well.
PRODUCTS
November RBOB reached a new contract high early Wednesday, while November ULSD was near unchanged after falling to its lowest level since September 10 on Tuesday. USLD may have seen some pressure following a statement by President Trump that supports the idea a ban on diesel exports.
NATURAL GAS
November Natural Gas was higher early Wednesday following a big rally on Tuesday that took the market to its highest level since July 24. There is no big weather event driving this move, but demand appears to be keeping pace with record US production. LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states has risen to 113.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, up from a record of 112.2 bcfd in August but a bit below the average level a week ago. Daily output was on track to fall to an 11-week low of 109.8 bcfd on Tuesday due mostly to declines in Louisiana and North Dakota, but these daily numbers can be volatile.
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