Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were steady to $.02 lower while spreads weakened. Sept-26 and Dec-26 both traded to a 3-month high overnight. Day 1 of the Pro Farmer crop tour estimated SD corn yields will reach only 149 bpa, down from last year’s forecast of 174 bpa. In OH they forecast yields at 180.2 bpa, down from 185.7 last year while pegging NE at 160.7 bpa vs. 179.5 YA. Day 2 results likely out this afternoon. US corn conditions slipped 1% to 60% G/E, in line with expectations. Composite ratings improved in 7 states, declined in 9 while holding steady in 2. Overall ratings fell to a fresh growing season low while slightly below the historical average. 76% of the crop is in the dough stage, 29% is dented while 4% of the crop is mature, all just ahead of the 5-year Ave. Using updated USDA acreage data my model is suggesting an average US yield of 180.4 bpa with production at 15.983 bil. bu., just below the USDA forecast of 16.013 bil. AgRural reports Brazil’s 2nd crop is 85% harvested vs. 94% YA. Speculative traders were net buyers of over 20k contracts yesterday stretching their long position to 244k contracts, which if realized would be the largest in 3 months. O.I. jumped just over 15k contracts.
SOYBEANS
Prices turned mixed with beans steady to $.05 higher, meal was steady to $1 higher while bean oil was down over $.01 ½ lb. in the nearby contracts, giving back nearly all of yesterday’s price surge. Bean and oil spreads weakened while meal spreads firmed. Both Sept-26 and Nov-26 beans traded to new highs for the month. Next resistance for Nov-26 is at its contract high at $12.56 ½. Sept-26 meal stalled just before reaching its Aug-26 high of $316.40. Sept-26 oil rejected trade above yesterday’s high while closing back below MA support. The US Midwest has seen some relief from recent heavy rains with heaviest precipitation in the past 24 hours across C. NE. Much of the Midwest will see light, scattered rain thru the end of the week with heaviest concentration across C. MO. Normal to below normal temperatures for much of the C. Midwest and Great Lakes region while the SW plains remains hot and dry. Crush margins plunged $.17 to $2.54 ½ bu. after trading to a 5-month low intraday. US Gulf FOB offers are holding $.30-$.35 bu. below Brazilian offers thru the end of 2026. The USDA announced another flash sale of 136k mt to China. Yesterday’s NOPA crush at 216.6 mil. bu. was below expectations. Implied census crush at 222 mil. bu. would bring YTD crush to 2.436 bil. bu. on pace to reach the USDA forecast. Crush in August needs to reach 214 mil. bu. vs. only 198 YA. Bean oil stocks at 1.36 bil. lbs. were down 9.4% from June and below expectations of 1.454 bil. Pod count data from the Pro Farmer crop tour as follows: SD – 946 pods per 3×3 foot square vs. 1,189 YA, OH 1,197 pods vs. 1,287 YA and NE at 1,269 pods vs. 1,348 YA. Soybean ratings fell 1% to 61% G/E, in line with expectations. Composite ratings match the lowest of the crop cycle while still just above their historical average. Ratings improved in only 5 states, declined in 11 while holding steady in 1. 85% of the crop is setting pods vs. YA and 5-year Ave. of 80%. Using updated USDA acreage data my model is suggesting an average US yield of 53 bpa with production at 4.547 bil. bu., just above the USDA forecast of 4.519 bil.
WHEAT
Prices were mixed in choppy 2-sided trade. CGO Sept-26 was down $.10 ¼ at $6.64 ½, KC Sept-26 was off $.15 at $7.43 ¾ while MIAX Sept-26 was up $.01 ¼ at $6.76 ¼. The overnight high in Sept-26 KC was within a dime of its contract high at $7.77 ½. Ukraine’s grain harvest has reached 30.8 mmt with 6.6 mil. HA (56%) of their cropland being harvested. Wheat harvest has so far come in at 23.8 mmt. A German farm association forecasts their countries wheat harvest will reach 20.9 mmt, down 7.7% YOY. IKAR reports Russia’s wheat export prices ended last week at $215 per mt, down $5 from the previous week. They expect Russia will export between 2.1-2.6 mmt in August, up from 1.6 mmt in July. US WW harvest advanced to 96%, vs. 93% YA and 5-year Ave. of 94%. Spring wheat ratings increased 1% to 52% G/E. With the increase, composite ratings remain just above their 5-year Ave. 41% of the crop has been harvested vs. the 5-year Ave. of 34%. Updated acreage data and crop ratings suggest an average yield of 49.2 bpa and production at 457 mil. below the USDA forecast of 474 mil.
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