Written Commentary
BASE METALS
Copper: Copper prices on the LME hit a six-month high as supply worries continue to fuel gains. Benchmark three-month copper was 1.1% higher at $14,258, while COMEX prices are up 0.10% at $6.73 at a record high. The Democratic Republic of Congo has banned exports of copper concentrate and cobalt concentrate, per a government order reviewed by Reuters on Thursday. The move is designed to increase domestic processing and retain more value from its mineral resources. The ban takes effect immediately, although one-year export waivers may be granted under strategic circumstances, the order said. Congo mostly exports copper in the form of refined metal, so the supply disruption is less disruptive than the headline appears, although it is yet another disruption to supply for the market. It exported 696,725 tons of copper cathodes in the Q1 2026, compared to 53,926 tons of concentrate containing 18,863 tons of copper metal, according to official data.
Falling inventories outside the US and hopes that US-Iran talks will open the Strait are setting up bullish conditions for the metal despite the uncertainty over the status of negotiations. LME warehouse available inventory sits at an eight-month low and below a day’s worth of global copper consumption. Low inventories levels continue to push the premium of cash prices over the three-month forward to $154 a ton, the most since October. The premium of COMEX copper to LME copper continues to support coppers movement into US warehouses. COMEX warehouses sit at over 650,000 metric tons, double LME and SHFE levels combined. Strong demand for AI infrastructure buildout and supportive Q2 results from several large AI-names have also lifted sentiment and expectations that the new technology will support longer-term demand prospects. However, that leaves the market susceptible to shifts in demand and performance in the tech sector.
Zinc: Zinc was up 1.8% at $3,795. Zinc has hit a four-year high amid low supplies.
Aluminum: Aluminum rose 0.5% to $3,258.
Tin: Tin was 0.1% lower at $56,675.
Lead: Lead gained 0.4% to $1,893.
Nickel: Nickel was down 2.0% at $16,770. Chinese market information hub SMM reported that one of Indonesia’s nickel ore miners had received an additional production quota.
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold: December gold contracts neared a seven-week high as US-Iran peace deal hopes have supported the metal ahead of Friday’s labor report. Hopes for a deal that restores oil flows are easing inflationary fears among traders and paring back Fed tightening expectations. Traders have reduced expectations of a Fed hike at September’s meeting from about 70% at the start of the week to under 60% this morning in the wake of US-Iran news. However, the market remains fully priced for a hike in December. President Trump said the US held “very good discussions” with Iran on Tuesday, Axios reported that the US and Iran are closing in on an interim agreement to reopen the Strait with Oman’s consent. Kansas City Fed President Schmid said on Tuesday that some policy tightening is needed to get inflation back to the 2% target, while on Wednesday San Francisco Fed President Daly said she was “completely supportive” of the decision last week to hold rates steady. NY Fed President Williams said he was optimistic that inflation pressures will ease gradually, though will not hesitate to respond with rate hikes if they prove stubborn. Governor Cook has said she is prepared to raise rates if inflation does not ease. Gold has found some momentum amid in recent days as hopes that the current macro backdrop will shift in the event of an opening of the Strait. Gold could continue to breakout if Treasury yields continue to retreat and Fed tightening expectations wane, though a strong jobs report tomorrow would make that prospect unlikely in the near-term.
Silver: September contracts are down 0.77% to $61.81.
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