Delayed Brazil Harvest Lifts Coffee

COFFEE

September Coffee was higher for the third straight session early Tuesday. Old crop supplies remain tight, the Brazilian harvest is behind, and El Nino threatens to cause problems with the robusta crops in Asia and the 2027 arabica crops in Brazil. Safras & Mercado reported on Friday that 64% of Brazil’s planted area had been harvested as of July 15, up from 58% a week earlier but below the 77% at this time last year and behind the five-year average of 70%. Arabica was 54% harvested versus 67% a year earlier, and robusta was 84% versus 93% a year earlier. Traders are waiting to see the extent of the damage done to crops from the heavy rains in June.  Concerns persist that El Nino will dampen the flowering and cherry setting stages of the 2027 arabica crop this fall. World Weather Inc. said on Sunday that Brazil coffee areas will see some rain from Parana into Sao Paulo later this week, which includes some arabica areas. Indonesia is getting drier.

COTTON

December Cotton was higher early Tuesday but inside Monday’s range. Stock indices and crude oil were higher, which lends some support to cotton. The weekly Crop Progress report released Monday afternoon showed 45% of the US cotton crop was rated good/excellent as of July 19, up from 44% the previous week but down from 57% a year ago. The five-year average for this date is 50%. Texas was 30% G/E, unchanged from last week but down from 51% a year ago and below the five-year average at 38%. Mississippi was 47% G/E, up from 39% last week and the same as 47% a year ago. The five-year average is 60%. The crop is progressing at a normal pace, with 32% of the US crop \setting bolls, unchanged from a year ago and the five-year average. Texas received no rain overnight. Tropical Storm Bertha could being heavy rains to the Coastal Bend region but not West Texas, where it is needed most. They are not expected to see much rain over the next week to 10 days.

SUGAR

October Sugar was near unchanged early Tuesday and was confined to Monday’s range. Data from Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry on Monday showed center-south cane crushing totaled 31.15 million metric tons during the second half of June, down 28.4% from the same period last year. Sugar production was 1.61 million tons, down 44.2%, and ethanol production was 1.7 billion liters, down 13.1%. These numbers were below expectations from an S&P Global Energy poll last week that had sugar output at 1.87 million tons and ethanol at 1.86 billion liters. Drier conditions this week are expected to help advance harvesting. Production tends to peak in late July/early August. China’s General Administration of Customs said the nation imported 280,000 metric tons of sugar in June, which was down 34.2% from the same month a year ago. A junior oil minister for India said the nation has no plans to increase the ethanol content in gasoline beyond the current 20%. Supportive factors include the ongoing drought in Europe that is damaging the beet crop there and lower than normal monsoon rains that could reduce cane production in major producers India and Thailand.

COCOA

September Cocoa was near unchanged early Tuesday, inside Monday’s range. Ivory Coast’s cocoa grind totaled 56,325 metric tons in June, up 22% from the same period last year according GEPEX. The total grind from the start of the 2025/26 season is 493,468 tons, up 3.7% from the same period last season. This as well as better than expected second-quarter grind numbers out of Asia and North America last week suggest demand is starting to recover. A Reuters poll of 11 traders and analysts on Monday had West Africa production falling in 2026/27 due to the “super El Nino.’ The median was for a balanced market in 2026/27 versus a surplus of 400,000 in 2025/26. Ivory Coast production was expected to fall to 1.8 million metric tons from 1.98 million in the current season and Ghana to 580,000 tons from 675,000. Ecuador’s output was expected to hold steady at 600,000 tons. Ivory Coast cocoa port arrivals totaled 13,000 metric tons for the week ending July 19, down from 22,000 the previous week but on par with a year ago.

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