Ivory Coast Port Arrivals Down

COCOA

After starting out lower, July Cocoa reversed higher early Monday and was approaching Friday’s high. Cocoa arrivals at Ivory Coast ports totaled 22,000 million metric tons for the week ending May 31, down from 34,000 the previous week and equal with the same week last year. Cumulative arrivals for the 2025/26 marketing year have reached 1.659 million tons, up from 1.540 million at this point last year and the highest since 2022/23, when they had reached 2.104 million at this point in the season. The five-year average is 1.806 million. The weather in West Africa appears to be generally favorable for cocoa production. World Weather Inc. said scattered showers and thunderstorms occurred over the weekend Ivory Coast through Ghana and southern Benin to western and southern Nigeria. They expect periodic rain and some thunderstorms will impact west-central cocoa areas throughout the next week to ten days. Sufficient rain will fall to maintain normal crop development, although some of the rain will be light.

COFFEE

July Coffee was higher early Monday but was in the lower half of Friday’s range down. The market is having a difficult time mounting a rally with a large Brazilian harvest approaching. Arabica supplies are expected to improve significantly as the harvest gets underway, but the pace has been slow so far; rains have slowed crop development as well. Safras & Mercado said last week that Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest had reached 16% of the planted area as of May 27 versus a five year average of 20%. The arabica harvest was 12% complete versus 14% last year and on average, while the robusta harvest was 24%, versus 31% last year and a five-year average of 30%. World Weather Inc. said rains missed most of Brazil’s coffee production areas over the weekend, and they expect any additional rains to be extremely brief and light over the next 7-10 days and have no impact on crop or soil conditions. Temperatures will be mild to warm, which should help the development and harvesting. The best chance for cooler weather is early to mid-week next week, but there will be no risk of crop damaging cold.

COTTON

December Cotton was gapped higher overnight, opening at its highest level since May 21. It has since given back a good portion of its gains, but it was still above Friday’s high as of this writing. News over the weekend that India had suspended customs duties on cotton imports for five months may have provided support, as that could benefit US cotton exports. India has been the fifth-largest buyer of US cotton for the 2025/26 marketing year so far, having purchased a total of 626,500 bales as of May 21. (The top buyer this year is Vietnam at 3.747 million bales, followed by Pakistan at 1.402 million, Turkey at 1.0183 million, and Bangladesh at 815,100.) However, the traders mentioned rupee’s depreciation has made imported cotton slightly more expensive than domestic supplies, and industry officials said Indian cotton is currently the cheapest in the world and that ample supplies from this year’s crop are available domestically. Cotton is largely grown in rain-fed areas in India, and any disruption to monsoon rains from El Nino could reduce output for the crop being planted in June and boost import demand, said a New-Delhi-based dealer with a global trade house. India has already lowered its forecast for this year’s monsoon to “below normal.” Recent rain in US cotton areas has improved crop and field conditions, including in west Texas. Additional moisture is expected this week that will further raise topsoil moisture for improved planting, emergence and establishment conditions.

SUGAR

July Sugar was higher overnight on follow through from Friday’s rally off a five-week low. The market was given some bearish news last week with the Brazilian UNICA data showing sugar production in the second-half of April was sharply higher than last year. A strong production number was expected, but the number exceeded expectations. Dry conditions in center south Brazil during the period was considered ideal for harvest and crushing activity. The fact that sugar production was higher than last year even with the greater emphasis on ethanol production was not a surprise. Higher crude oil prices after falling under pressure last week may have also given an additional lift to sugar today. Brazilian state-run oil company Petrobras hiked the price of gasoline sold to distributors starting Friday, which adds to support for ethanol production. El Nino is expected to lower Indian monsoon rainfall production in this summer, and India has already reduced its forecasted amounts. It may also affect output in Indonesia and Thailand.

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