Global Ag News For April 10.2026

TOP HEADLINES

China Cotton Consumption Seen Higher Than Prior Forecast: CASDE

China raised its cotton consumption outlook as the Middle East conflict pushed up energy costs, making synthetic fibers costlier and improving cotton’s competitiveness, according to the agriculture ministry.

• Estimates for cotton consumption were raised by 200,000 tons to 7.8 million tons in 2025-26, according to the China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (CASDE) report
  • Higher oil prices linked to the war raised the cost of chemical fibers, which are generally made from petrochemicals, prompting a shift toward cotton as a substitute
• Demand has been supported by active purchases by textile firms during the peak demand season, it said
• In other markets, ample pork supplies and low prices are curbing demand for food products made from domestic soybeans
• There has been downward pressure on feed corn prices, with pig farmers suffering from prolonged losses
• Production, demand and import estimates for corn, soybeans and edible oils for 2025-26 remain unchanged

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 2 1/2 in SRW, down 3/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 1; Soybeans up 1; Soymeal up $4.70; Soyoil down 0.57.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 21 3/4 in SRW, down 22 in HRW, down 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 6 3/4; Soybeans up 7 1/2; Soymeal up $7.80; Soyoil down 1.23.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 44 1/4 in SRW, down 45 3/4 in HRW, down 2/5 in HRS; Corn is down 14 3/4; Soybeans down 4; Soymeal up $6.80; Soyoil down 1.75.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 13.7% in SRW, up 15.3% in HRW, up 8.1% in HRS; Corn is up 1.2%; Soybeans up 13.7%; Soymeal up 9.6%; Soyoil up 40.9%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 26) Soybeans up 123 yuan; Soymeal up 12; Soyoil up 48; Palm oil up 78; Corn up 27 — Malaysian Palm is down 108.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 108 ringgit (-2.33%) at 4535.

There were changes in registrations (-11 Corn). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 93 Oats; 630 Corn; 523 Soybeans; 1,536 Soyoil; 197 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 9 were: SRW Wheat down 15,543 contracts, HRW Wheat down 5,151, Corn down 12,902, Soybeans up 248, Soymeal down 10,721, Soyoil up 2,721.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 09 APRIL 2026

• NORTH AMERICA: The latest EC extended run from 09 April shows widespread warmth across the U.S. through much of the next 4 weeks, and regional wet weather in the Midwest U.S.
• SOUTH AMERICA: The latest EC extended run from 09 April shows warmth prevailing across much of South America during the next 4 weeks, with regional wet weather in far northern Argentina/western Brazil and dry conditions in Southeast Brazil
• SOUTHEAST ASIA: Near or above normal rainfall is expected across Indonesia and Malaysia during the next 10 days
• BLACK SEA: Ukraine will experience dry conditions through 10 days, while areas to the east are expected to pick up above normal totals
• TELECONNECTIONS: The Arctic Oscillation (AO), which is currently in a strong positive phase event, is expected to drop sharply into a negative phase event during the next week and remain as such through much of April, potentially shaking up Northern Hemisphere weather patterns

 

Northern Plains: A few showers will move through on Thursday. Another system will move through this weekend with warmer air and some scattered showers into Monday and another system will be possible late next week. The frequent rounds of precipitation will improve soil moisture, but colder temperatures are creating slower rises in soil temperature. Unless the pattern changes, it could be a shorter window for planting this spring.

Central/Southern Plains: A front will stall out in the region on Thursday and Friday before lifting northward on Saturday as another system moves in. Yet another system will move through early next week. All features will bring chances for scattered showers, including to the deepest drought areas that are building in the west. The showers will come in batches of thunderstorms, which will mean some areas will see heavy rain while others are likely to be drier. Mixed improvement should be expected, but not widespread improvement for winter wheat or significant increases in soil moisture for corn and soybean planting. Drought remains a problem despite the active pattern, which is forecast to continue through most of April.

Midwest: A front will remain active with showers through Friday, lifting northward on Saturday with some warmer air moving in. A system or two will then bring more scattered showers early-to-mid next week, providing plenty of opportunity to have good soil moisture for spring planting. However, some areas may receive too much and ponding may be a concern for planting as well. Though temperatures are rising, the 50-degree soil temperature mark is only creeping into southern areas and frequent changes in air temperature will mean a slow progress northward for the rest of the month.

Delta: Drought is still heavily entrenched in the region. There may be some isolated showers into the weekend, but drier conditions this week have not be favorable for soil moisture. That will make planting and early growth more difficult. A few fronts will approach the region with some showers next week, but consistent, heavy rains are not in the forecast.

Brazil: A front is providing a brief burst of moderate rain across central Brazil for Thursday. But precipitation will become isolated again after it passes. Another front will enhance showers across the south this weekend into early next week, but wet season rainfall does appear to be winding down early in central Brazil. Overall, this is unfavorable for developing safrinha corn, as wet season rainfall is counted on for decent corn yields. If the rains indeed shut down early, prior to the start of May, then losses should be expected.

Argentina: A slow-moving front brought widespread precipitation to the country last week, but that is only favorable for the shrinking portion of the corn and soybean crops that were planted late. Early-planted corn and soybeans continue to go through harvest. Another system will move across the north this weekend with more rainfall, as will another early next week.

Europe: A couple of smaller systems are moving through Europe this week with more focused areas of precipitation, previously across Spain and for Germany on Thursday. Despite the somewhat drier look this week, most areas of the continent have good soil moisture for winter wheat and early corn planting outside of the northeast, which is drier. Showers may be more widespread this weekend into next week as a system slowly passes through the continent. Northeast areas still look drier, though.

Black Sea: A stalled system will continue to produce rounds of showers into the weekend and possibly next week as well. Soil moisture has slowly been improving since the winter, though it is not ideal in too many areas. The region would like to keep these scattered showers going or see more widespread heavy rains for the second half of April. No concerns are noted though at the moment.

 

The player sheet for 4/9 had funds: net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 9,500 corn, sellers of 1,000 soybeans, buyers of 4,000 soymeal, and sellers of 1,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: Exporters sold 136,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to South Korea for 2025/2026 delivery, the U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed.
• CORN PURCHASE: South Korean group Cargill Agri Purina purchased about 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender seeking up to 140,000 tons, European traders said. The tender sought corn from South America or South Africa only.
• CORN PURCHASE: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased around 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal late on Wednesday without an international tender being issued, European traders said. If sourced from the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast, shipment was between June 14 and July 12.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: South Korea’s NOFI also purchased around 60,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in a private deal late on Wednesday without issuing an international tender, European traders said.
• UPDATE ON WHEAT PURCHASE: South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 90,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Wednesday, European traders said on Thursday. This was up from earlier estimates of 50,000 tons.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: A group of animal feed importers in Thailand was believed to have purchased around 60,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in a tender that closed on Tuesday, European traders said.

PENDING TENDERS

• UREA TENDER: India, the world’s largest urea importer, was looking to purchase 2.5 million metric tons of the key crop nutrient to shore up domestic supplies, which have tightened due to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. Bids for the tender must be submitted by April 15.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 65,394 metric tons of rice, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers is April 21.

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY

Rosario Bourse Boosts Argentina Corn Forecast on Acreage Change

Corn output this year is now seen at 67 million metric tons, up from 62 million, Rosario Board of Trade analysts said in a monthly report.

• Satellite imaging revealed a wider planted corn area
• Soybean estimate kept at 48 million tons
  • Satellites showed smaller soy acreage, fully compensated by higher yield expectations

 

SovEcon Cuts Ukraine Wheat, Corn Estimates for 2026 Season

SovEcon cut its forecasts for Ukraine’s wheat and corn production on concerns over availability of fuel and fertilizers amid the hostilities in the Middle East.

• The country’s wheat output is now forecast at 23.6m tons, down 1m on the previous estimate
• Corn production is now seen at 28.1m tons, a cut of 1.7m
  • Weather conditions are seen as favorable, but tighter access to fertilizers and fuel is expected to weigh on yields
  • Cites similar pattern in 2022, when good weather was offset by input shortages, resulting in lower yields
• “Input constraints are not yet critical, but they are already shaping yield expectations for the new crop,” said Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon. “Ukraine is one of the key grain exporters in the Northern Hemisphere and could face some of the most pronounced input-related challenges this year due to disruptions linked to the Middle East”
• Export pace for wheat adjusted marginally
  • Forecasts wheat exports at 20.8m tons, up 0.5m tons
  • Expects corn exports unchanged at 27m tons
  • “Persistently weak shipments this season are leading to a buildup of stocks, which is expected to support exports next year despite a smaller crop”: SovEcon

 

Argentine Soybean, Corn Estimates April 9: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2025-26 corn and soybean production estimates maintained
• Corn harvest advanced to 22% complete from 19% in the previous week

 

USDA attaché projects Argentina 2026/27 soybean crop at 49 million tons

Following are selected highlights from a report issued on Thursday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service post in Buenos Aires:

“Post forecasts Argentina’s soybean production at 49 MMT (million metric tons) in MY (marketing year) 2026/27 on slightly higher area, with yields returning to more typical levels following the current season’s strong performance. Crush is projected to ease slightly to 42 MMT as margins soften, resulting in marginally lower soymeal production (31.9 MMT) while exports remain strong at 30 MMT. Soybean oil production and exports are forecast largely unchanged, supported by firm global vegetable oil demand.”

 

India rapeseed sales shift to private traders as war lifts edible oil prices

• Middle East conflict lifts edible oil and rapeseed prices
• Rapeseed prices stay well above government procurement rates
• Farmers prefer private trade, accelerating rapeseed crushing
• Higher rapeseed oil supplies limit edible oil imports

Indian farmers are selling rapeseed to private traders as market prices remain well above government procurement rates, driven by a rally in edible oil prices linked to the Iran war.

Domestic oilseed prices in India, the world’s largest importer of vegetable oils, tend to track international benchmarks, which have surged on expectations that the conflict will boost edible oil use in biofuels.

The private sales are accelerating the pace of rapeseed crushing in India, easing reliance on costly imports of palm oil, soy oil and sunflower oil, which account for nearly a third of its cooking demand.

“In the open market, we’re getting around 7,000 rupees, so there’s no point going to government procurement centres,” said Roop Singh, a farmer in Bharatpur district in the northwestern state of Rajasthan, the country’s biggest rapeseed producer.

State-run agencies buy crops from farmers at the minimum support price, set at 6,200 rupees per 100 kg for rapeseed mustard.

Rapeseed prices in India typically start falling from March as supplies from the new-season crop increase, but this year they have climbed about 9% since the start of the month.

“There is crushing parity in rapeseed, as demand is robust for both rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal. Oil mills are aggressively purchasing rapeseed from farmers for processing,” said Anil Chatar, a leading trader based in Jaipur in Rajasthan.

A sharp rise in Chinese purchases of India’s rapeseed meal is also helping prices to hold firm, after Beijing imposed a 100% retaliatory tariff on rapeseed meal and oil imports from its main supplier Canada in March last year.

China’s rapeseed meal imports from India surged to 771,435 metric tons between April 2025 and February 2026, from 24,044 tons in the same period a year earlier, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

India’s rapeseed output in 2026 is likely to rise 3.6% from a year ago to a record 11.94 million tons, said B.V. Mehta, executive director of the SEA.

The south Asian country mostly imports edible oils from Malaysia, Indonesia, Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine and Russia.

 

Malaysia’s March palm oil stocks hit seven-month low as exports surge

Malaysia’s palm oil inventories slid in March, down for a third straight month and hitting a seven-month low on a surge in exports that more than offset a modest increase in output.

Falling inventories in the world’s second-largest producer of the tropical oil could support benchmark Malaysian futures, which have climbed in recent weeks after the Iran conflict drove energy prices higher.

Malaysia’s palm oil stocks tumbled 16.1% to 2.27 million metric tons in March from February, marking their lowest level since August, data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) showed on Friday. Inventories were slightly higher than expectations.

Crude palm oil production increased 7.2% to 1.38 million tons, snapping a four-month run of declines. Even so, that was the lowest level of output for the month of March in three years.

Palm oil exports rocketed 40.7% higher to 1.55 million tons, the most in five months.

A Reuters survey had forecast inventories at 2.18 million tons, with output seen at 1.34 million tons and exports at 1.56 million tons.

“Despite the hefty reduction in March, Malaysian palm oil inventories remain well above typical levels for this time of year,” said Anilkumar Bagani, research head at vegetable oil broker Sunvin Group.

“Export performance will need to be repeated in April to support the market, as production so far this month is still seen as elevated, while exports are sharply down in the first 10 days.”

A recent rally in soyoil prices has widened palm oil’s discount to its rival, potentially drawing Indian buyers back into the market after they stayed on the sidelines last month, said a New Delhi-based dealer with a global trade house.

India’s palm oil imports fell nearly 19% in March to a three-month low, dealers said.

 

India to Restore Fertilizer Output to Normal as Gas Supply Rises

India’s production of urea — a widely used nitrogen fertilizer — will return to normal levels from Friday, as some idled plants restart operations following an improvement in natural gas supplies, according to people familiar with the matter.

Some manufacturers, including top producer Indian Farmers Fertiliser Cooperative Ltd., had shut a few of their facilities or undertaken routine maintenance as supplies of gas, a key feedstock, fell after disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict.

As a result, India’s urea production fell by about 800,000 tons in March, from a normal monthly level of more than 2.6 million tons, said one of the people, who asked not to be identified as they are not authorized to speak to the media. India is one of the largest consumers and the biggest importer of the crop nutrient.

A fertilizer ministry spokesperson didn’t immediately respond to an email seeking comment.

The government boosted gas flows for the sector to about 95% of average consumption, from around 70%–75% earlier, according to the oil ministry.

The improvement comes ahead of sowing of monsoon crops, such as rice, corn and soybeans, which typically starts in early June. Fertilizer, one of India’s most gas-intensive sectors, depends heavily on steady flows. A temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran agreed this week may improve supplies, but shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is still slow.

While Indian liquefied natural gas importers have been able to secure some supply from the spot market, buyers have struggled to replace the loss of volumes from major producer Qatar. The 30-day moving average for Indian LNG imports is down 27%, compared with this time last year, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

Indian Potash Ltd., which procures urea for the government, issued a tender last week to import 2.5 million ton. India regularly imports urea through global tenders to meet domestic demand, but this is its first such purchase since the US-Israeli war on Iran, making the timing in focus.

 

Summer weather outlooks and strong yield prospects boost 2026/27 China corn production

2026/27 CHINA CORN PRODUCTION: 306.2 [298.3 – 310.7] MILLION TONS, UP 1.7% FROM LAST SEASON

Supportive policies, high prices, and good summer weather outlooks are expected to increase China corn acreage and yields, raising 2026/27 production to 306.2 million tons, 5 million above last season.

Regarding policies, China’s central government, in its 2026 No. 1 Document, aims to ensure food security by maintaining stable grain and oilseed sown areas and increasing productivity. The country has increased the use of genetically engineered corn to boost yields and continues to encourage soybean production through higher subsidies and intercropping with corn or wheat. Additionally, China emphasizes supporting corn production for silage, aiming to support the livestock industry.

Economically, China’s domestic corn prices have risen 6-8% over the past year, nearing the levels seen two years ago due to lower imports and consumption growth. This has led to higher anticipated profits compared to soybeans. Though corn subsidies are much lower than those for soybeans, the strong prices and higher returns still encourage farmers to plant more corn.

After reviewing government policies, farming history, and economic trends, we estimate China’s corn sown area for 2026/27 at 45.19 million hectares, up 0.5% from last season.

Spring corn planting is about to start in the Northeast, while summer corn will be planted in June after winter wheat harvest in the North China Plain.

In the Northeast, spring corn planting is off to a good start thanks to warm and relatively wet conditions in March and April. Summer weather forecasts show that June through August will likely be wetter than usual with normal or slightly warmer temperatures, which should benefit corn production. In the North China Plain, although summer outlooks suggest slightly warm and dry conditions, the region’s strong irrigation systems can mitigate the effects of unfavorable weather. Based on current and predicted conditions, the national average yield is estimated at 6.78 tons per hectare, slightly above the trend yield of 6.72 tons per hectare.

 

Chinese Scientists Uncover Genetic Mechanism That Helps Rice Resist Bacterial Blight

(Yicai) April 9 — After 20 years of research, Chinese scientists have discovered the immune mechanism by which some rice resists bacterial blight, offering a basis for breeding varieties of the widely consumed grain that are both disease-resistant and high-yielding.

A joint team from the Center for Excellence in Molecular Plant Sciences of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, and Zhejiang University identified rice gene Xa48 and uncovered the means by which it triggers an immune response to bacterial blight.

The findings, published yesterday in the science journal Nature, provide key theoretical and technical support for breeding new rice varieties that combine disease resistance with high yields.

Bacterial blight, which is caused by the Xanthomonas oryzae bacteria, is a disease affecting rice, commonly found in coastal, lakeside, and low-lying flood-prone areas. It is one of the world’s most devastating plant diseases, as it can cause yield loss of over 70 percent.

The incidence of bacterial blight in China over the past two decades has increased and spread to almost all rice-growing areas as a result of climate change and increasingly extreme weather.

The study found that Xa48 is retained only in rice subspecies grown in the southern Yangtze River region, where bacterial blight occurs more frequently, while it is absent in subspecies north of the region, where flooding is less common. This discovery has major implications for rice breeding.

The researchers also developed a new rice variety by combining the Xa48 gene with the foundational resistance gene Xa21. This confirmed that the presence of both genes can reconstruct a broad-spectrum disease resistance similar to that of wild rice, maintaining stable resistance even under extreme conditions such as typhoons and floods, without affecting yield.

The findings have already been applied in the development of new disease-resistant varieties by several breeding companies and institutions, Yicai learned, including Yuan Long Ping High-Tech Agriculture, Winall Hi-Tech Seed, China National Rice Research Institute, and the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Fall, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 535k tons in the week ending April 4 from 691k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 18% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments down 32.4% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $18.23 per short ton, an increase of $0.16 from the previous week

 

AFTER A BRIEF COLD SPELL INTO NEXT WEEK, A BLACK SEA REGION WARMING TREND WILL EMERGE WHILE REGIONAL RAINS WILL PERSIST TO THE BENEFIT OF WHEAT

Weather Anomaly Severity: Moderate

Crops impacted: Wheat, Corn

Preferred model for the next 5 days: EC Op

Preferred model for the 6-15 day timeframe: EC Ens

Forecast confidence: High through the next 10 days, then lower due to uncertainty about the extent of returning cold risks

Model Change (from previous update): Drier in Ukraine

Significant weather anomalies and crop impact:

• The past week featured widespread Eurasia warmth, with temperatures 3-6 °C above normal.
• Temperatures will be 3-6 °C colder than normal from Ukraine into Southern Russia through 5 days, with widespread warmth arriving during the 6-15 day forecast.
• 15-day precipitation totals will be 25-50 mm wetter than along Southern/Central Russia, with near normal totals elsewhere.
• A trend toward more widespread cool/dry conditions is likely in late April as an item to monitor.
• A warming trend and regional high rainfall through mid-April will be favorable for winter wheat development as the main crop impact.

 

EUROPE COLD RISKS WILL BE LIMITED UNTIL LATE IN THE MONTH, WITH CROPS BENEFITING FROM FAVORABLE WEATHER IN THE MEANTIME

Weather Anomaly Severity: Moderate

Crops impacted: Wheat, Rapeseed, Corn

Preferred model for the next 5 days: EC Op

Preferred model for the 6-15 day timeframe: EC AIFS Ens (best consistency with teleconnections)

Forecast confidence: High through 5 days, low afterward due to uncertainty about whether arriving warmth will be widespread or regional

Model Change (from previous update): Warmer in Western Europe

Significant weather anomalies and crop impact:

• The past week was largely warm and dry across Europe, with temperatures 1-3 °C   below normal and rainfall 5-15 mm drier than normal.
• Warmth (temperatures 2-4 °C above normal) will persist across Western Europe, while Eastern Europe will trend 2-5 °C below normal through 5 days.
• The 6-15 day outlook will feature expanding and intensifying warmth as the most likely outcome.
• 15-day precipitation totals will be 25-50 mm wetter than normal from northern Spain through western Poland, with near or below normal rainfall elsewhere.
• The final third of April is likely to feature returning cold risks for Europe along with a drying trend in most areas.
• Short-term warmth and wet conditions in Europe should create a favorable outlook for wheat/rapeseed development, though returning cold late in the month could threaten crops.

 

 

 

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