Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.01-$.02 higher in 2-sided trade. Spreads were slightly firmer with Wednesday being the 1st day of the Goldman roll. May-26 held MA support $4.48. The USDA will provide its first planting progress report after today’s close which is expected to show 2-3% of the crop has been seeded. USDA WASDE report on Thursday. A WSJ poll shows analysts expect corn stocks to rise 16 mil. bu. from March to 2.143 bil. bu., which appears odd given the Mch. 1st stocks at 9.024 bil. bu. were 80 mil. below expectations. Both index funds and money managers were modest sellers of corn in the week ended Tues. Mch. 31st. The MM long position slipped to 268k contracts. Export inspections at 79 mil. bu. were above expectations. Last week’s inspections were revised up by nearly 4 mil. bu. bringing YTD inspections to 1.908 bil. up 36% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 15.5%. Noted buyers were Mexico – 18 mil. and Japan – 16 mil.
SOYBEANS
Prices were higher across the complex with beans up $.02-$.03, meal was steady to $2 higher while oil was up 50-1000 points. May-26 beans have held in $11.55-$11.80 range for the past 3 weeks. May-26 meal has MA support at $313.30. Spot bean oil traded $.70 lb. for the first time since July-23. Bean and meal spreads were mixed while oil spreads surged. Iran formally rejected a US proposal for a 45-day ceasefire in exchange for an immediate reopening of the Straits of Hormuz. Iran’s countered with a plan calling for a permanent ceasefire that including the lifting sanctions, compensation for war damages as well as a new arrangement for governing the Straits. Pres. Trump responded saying Iran’s counter proposal was “not good enough, but it’s a significant step”. Pres. Trump has also stated he would not move Tuesday’s deadline for Iran to open the Straits of Hormuz or face military strikes on their power plants and bridges. Crush margins jumped $.11 to $2.99 ¼ bu., a new 3 ½ year high with bean oil PV a new all-time high at 52.5%. Friday’s CFTC report showed money managers bought just over 13k contracts of bean oil extending their long position to a record large 135,809 contracts. Across the soybean complex MM’s bought nearly 21k contracts pushing their long position to a record high of 449,149 contracts. Export inspections at 29 mil. bu. were above expectations and above the 20 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. Last week’s inspections were revised up by 4 mil. bu. bringing YTD inspections to 1.127 bil. down 26% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 16%. China took nearly 19 mil. bu. The WSJ poll expects no change to ending stocks of 350 mil. bu.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.02-$.07 lower with KC futures the downside leader. Support for July-26 KC is at $6.06 ¾. US winter wheat acres in drought jumped 8% LW to 65%, a new 52 week high, and well above the 37% from YA. Winter wheat conditions are expected to land at 42% G/E, vs. 48% YA. Spring wheat plantings are expected at 2-3%. Across the 3 classes of wheat MM’s were net buyers of nearly 28k contracts, extending their combined long position to 51,314 contracts, the largest since June-22. MM’s were net long CGO wheat for the first time since July-22. The United Nations FAO forecasts global wheat production will slip 1.7% in 2026 to 820 mil. tons. Ukrainian drone strikes sank a Russian vessel carrying wheat in the Sea of Azov over the weekend. The Ave. est. in the WSJ polls shows all wheat stocks slipping 10 mil. bu. to 921 mil.
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