Written Commentary
BASE METALS
Copper: Copper prices fell on renewed concerns over economic growth after President Trump vowed more strikes on Iran and offered no concrete timeline to end the conflict in Iran or open the Strait of Hormuz. Benchmark three-month copper on the LME was down 1.6% at $12,235 as the dollar and oil prices rose in a broad risk-off mood in markets. Copper is trading more like a macro-sensitive risk asset, reflecting its role as Dr. copper, after surging to speculative-fueled all-time highs earlier in the year.
Elevated inventory levels continue to offer near-term headwinds to prices as well. LME copper warehouse stocks remain at nearly an eight-year high of 364,450 tons, up 150% YTD. Meanwhile, major Chinese smelters are planning to raise or maintain output in 2026, per 2026 earnings outlooks, despite a public commitment late last year to cut production by more than 10%. Jiangxi Copper, China’s top copper smelter, raised 2026 production guidance for copper cathodes to 2.39 million metric tons, up from 2.38 million tons produced in 2025. Similarly, Yunnan Copper increased its 2026 guidance to 1.71 million tons, up from 1.64 million tons produced last year. Daye Nonferrous, which published results on Wednesday, flagged a slight drop in 2026 to 713,000 tons, from output of 716,000 tons for last year. The three smelters produced a third of China’s refined copper last year.
Zinc: Zinc slipped 1.7% to $3,235.
Aluminum: Aluminum dipped 3% to $3,424. The cash LME aluminum contract was trading at a steep $67.25 a ton premium over the three-month forward, pointing to a shortage of near-term metal.
Tin: Tin slumped 3.9% to $45,500.
Lead: Lead lost 1.3% to $1,916.
Nickel: Nickel shed 0.9% to $17,050.
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold: Gold prices are lower, erasing Wednesday’s gains with April COMEX contracts down 4% to $4,619 in response to President Trump’s speech Wednesday night, which sent the dollar and energy prices sharply higher. The USD index is 0.5% higher to 100.12, while WTI prices are up nearly 13% to $113.12. Trump’s speech offered no further clarity on the conflict in Iran and vowed more aggressive strikes on Iran in the next two to three weeks with no concrete timeline to open the Strait of Hormuz. Fears that the conflict may leave Iran with a stranglehold over the Strait of Hormuz continue to be reflected in higher energy prices and dampened risk sentiment.
Fed rate pricing inched hawkishly following the speech, though further tightening out of the central bank is unlikely. February’s JOLTS data confirmed a stable labor market but revealed that the hiring rate fell to its lowest level since April 2020. The figures, not consistent with a robust labor market, have likely taken a move up from the Fed entirely off the table, a factor that has been offering strong headwinds to gold prices. Still, odds of a hike at December’s meeting are practically non-existent, marking a sharp reversal after ending Friday at an implied 50%.
Fed Chair Powell on Monday said the central bank is inclined to hold rates steady and look past the energy shock from the war in Iran, though he cautioned that action could be necessary if the public inflation expectations rise significantly. Powell noted that energy disruptions tend to be short-lived, and monetary policy works too slowly to counteract them in real time. Powell also said that longer-run inflation expectations appear to be “well-anchored” despite the elevated oil prices.
Silver: Silver futures are down 7.75% to $70.13.
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