Lower Trade to Begin The New Month

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Lower trade in the Ag space to begin the new month with wheat being the leader to the downside.  No major surprises in yesterday’s USDA quarterly stocks and acreage data while lower energy prices also weigh on agricultural commodities.  Yesterday Pres Trump stated he expects US military forces will leave Iran in 2-3 weeks while also suggesting other nations in the region will take the lead to reopen the Straits of Hormuz.  Spot WTI crude oil is down $2.65 per barrel near $98.75.  Spot RBOB is down $.07 per gallon while HO is down $.01.  Waves of precipitation continue to track across the nation’s midsection.  By the end of the Easter weekend 2-3” of accumulation precipitation is expected across the central and ECB including portions of the Eastern plains.  Lighter amounts for the far WCB and SW plain.  In Argentina continued rain in BA and surrounding provinces will slow crop development and lead to potential quality issues.  In Brazil rains will favor the south in RGDS along with the far north and NE growing areas.  Mostly dry for the WC region.  The US $$ is sharply lower while US equity markets are up .80%-1.1%.

Corn: 

May-26 is down $.05 ¾ at $4.52 while Dec-26 is $.05 at $4.79 ¼ both near session lows however holding within yesterday’s range.  Mch 1^st stocks at 9.024 bil bu were 80 mil below the average est. while acres at 95.338 mil. were nearly 1 mil. above expectations.  This acreage figure would still be the 2^nd highest in the past decade as surging input costs didn’t drive away as many acres expected.  Today’s EIA report is expected to show ethanol production slipped to 325 mil. gallons LW, vs. 328 mil. the previous week.  Monthly corn grind for ethanol production in Feb-26 out after today’s close is expected to reach 322 mil. bu., steady with YA.

Soybeans: 

May-26 beans are down $.09 at $11.62 while Nov-26 beans are $.06 ½ lower at $11.51 with both holding within yesterday’s range.  May-26 meal is down $1 at $315.40 unable to hold overnight strength.  May-26 oil is down 95 points at 67.93.  Mch 1^st stocks at 2.105 bil bu were 40 mil above the average est. while acres at 84.70 mil. were 850k below expectations.  In addition to the war/energy headlines the markets attention will also refocus on Pres. Trump’s upcoming trip to China.  Being delayed until mid-May I believe reduces the odds of additional Chinese old crop demand.  Bean oil used for the production of biofuels surged 14% in Jan-26 to 978 mil. and was up 49% YOY.  Usage in the first 4 months of the 25/26 MY at only 3.773 bil Lbs is off 11% vs. the USDA forecast of up 19%.  Census crush after today’s close is expected to reach 215 mil. bu. in Feb-26, a record high for the month and well above the 189.6 mil. bu. processed in Feb-25.  Bean oil stocks are expected to surge to 2.6 bil lbs. vs. 1.924 bil at the end of Feb-25.

Wheat: 

Prices range from $.10-$.16 lower, not able to build on yesterday’s higher trade.  CGO May-26 is down $.13 at $6.03 ¼ while KC May-26 is down $.16 at $6.19 ½.  Mch 1^st stocks at 1.30 bil bu. were 10 mil. below the average est. while all wheat acres at 43.775 mil. were 1 mil. below expectations.  Winter wheat acres at 32.41 mil. were down 580k from Jan-26 report and down 743k from YA while also a 6-year low.  Spring wheat acres at 9.415 were 428k below expectations and down 575k from YA.  Yesterday Tunisia reportedly bought 100k mt of soft wheat near $275/mt CF.  Rusagrotrans expects Russia’s wheat shipments in March could approach the record from 2024 at 4.89 mmt.  If realized would place July-Mch shipments at 37.7 mmt, overtaking YA pace of 36.3 mmt.

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