Global Ag News For March 24.2026

TOP HEADLINES

Iran war won’t alter upcoming US biofuel blending plan, sources say

The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump will release its 2026-27 biofuel blending volumes obligations this week, according to two sources familiar with the matter.

The rule will not differ materially from volumes proposed by the EPA prior to the onset of the Iran war, the sources said.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 8 in SRW, down 7 1/2 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 2 3/4; Soybeans up 3 3/4; Soymeal up $0.90; Soyoil down 0.15.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 13 1/4 in SRW, down 9 3/4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 5 3/4; Soybeans down 2 1/2; Soymeal down $4.50; Soyoil up 0.07.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 9 1/2 in SRW, up 16 in HRW, up 1/7 in HRS; Corn is up 11 1/4; Soybeans down 12; Soymeal up $2.80; Soyoil up 3.73.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 14.8% in SRW, up 15.9% in HRW, up 9.1% in HRS; Corn is up 4.4%; Soybeans up 12.4%; Soymeal up 9.8%; Soyoil up 36.4%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 26) Soybeans down 89 yuan; Soymeal down 33; Soyoil down 52; Palm oil down 120; Corn down 16 — Malaysian Palm is down 41.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 41 ringgit (-0.90%) at 4496.

There were changes in registrations (-1 Oats). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 93 Oats; 641 Corn; 523 Soybeans; 1,536 Soyoil; 213 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 24 were: SRW Wheat up 3,943 contracts, HRW Wheat up 375, Corn down 5,449, Soybeans down 89, Soymeal up 7,333, Soyoil up 6,278.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 25 MARCH 2026

• NORTH AMERICA: Warm temperatures continue across much of the U.S., while wet conditions persist in the Northwest’s winter wheat areas.
• SOUTH AMERICA: Warm temperatures with wet spells will persist across the southern Pampas corn and soybean regions, while Brazil’s South/Center West turn dry, and wet spells remains confined to the Southeast and Northeast.
• EUROPE: Central Europe will see near normal to cooler temperatures over the next 15 days, with wet spells across Germany, eastern France, and Poland.
• ASIA: Asia will remain mostly dry, except for brief wet spells in the central and northern wheat‑growing regions of China and north India.
• AFRICA: Wet spells are likely to favor cocoa development in Ghana and Ivory Coast and support Ethiopia’s coffee crop, whereas continued rains may delay corn harvest progress in South Africa.
• TELECONNECTIONS: MJO Phase 8 is forecast to bring wet conditions across South America and Africa through first half of April.

PROSPECTS FOR IMPROVED SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN U.S. CROP AREAS IN APRIL

What to Watch:

• Cold risks in April should be confined to the northern U.S. Plains and the Canadian Prairies
• There is potential for high precipitation and soil moisture improvement in parts of Midwest and Southeast U.S.  

Brazil – Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

Brazil – Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday. 

Argentina – Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures below normal throughWednesday, near normal Thursday-Friday.

Argentina – La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures below normal through Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Friday.

Northern Plains: Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday, above normal Saturday. Outlook: Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Central/Southern Plains: Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated showers northeast Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday. Outlook: Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Thursday. Temperatures above to well above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Midwest – West: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday, south Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

Midwest – East: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday night-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Thursday, below normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures above to well above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Delta: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, above to well above normal Wednesday-Thursday, falling Friday, near to below normal Saturday. Outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday, above to well above normal Monday-Thursday.

 

The player sheet for 3/24 had funds: net buyers of 3,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 10,000 corn, buyers of 2,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and buyers of 6,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to buy milling wheat, European traders said on Tuesday. OAIC indicated a nominal volume of 50,000 metric tons, but the agency usually buys much more. The deadline for offers is on March 26, the traders added.
• NO PURCHASES IN WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of wheat that closed on Tuesday, European traders said. A new tender is expected next week, traders said.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 74,382 metric tons of rice, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers was March 11.
• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 8,000 metric tons of long-grain white rice sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers was March 13.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is March 25.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending March 20 are based on four analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen higher than last week at 1.099m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 26.409m bbl vs 26.407m a week ago

 

US Moving at ‘Warp Speed’ to Finish Biofuels Rules, Rollins Says

The Trump administration is “moving at warp speed” to get out biofuels blending standards, with an announcement coming “sooner rather than later,” according to US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins.

“We have been in a lot of meetings ensuring that our agriculture community is frankly put first and farm security is national security,” Rollins said in an interview at the US Department of Agriculture. “The president has been resolute on that since day one and certainly has not taken his foot off the gas pedal.”

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins

Companies have been anxiously awaiting a decision on long-delayed guidance on mandates for mixing renewable fuels with gasoline and diesel. A lack of clarity on the so-called Renewable Fuel Standard has weighed on the agriculture and biofuel industries. Increased use of renewable fuels is expected to boost demand for feedstocks like corn and soybeans at a time when farmers are facing weak crop prices and high input costs.

“We feel very good” that the biofuels guidance will be out soon, Rollins said after an event where the agency announced a campaign to promote transparency in labeling of agricultural products. Environmental Protection Agency administrator Lee Zeldin said at a conference Monday that a decision would come by the end of the month.

The presentation Tuesday came as the White House prepares to host farmers and CEOs of agriculture companies at an event Friday marking National Agriculture Day. “The big celebration on Friday could be a great place to talk about important things moving forward,” Rollins said. “So that’s what we’re gearing toward.”

The administration is reaching out to farmers who have been struggling with President Donald Trump’s global tariffs, and are being additionally squeezed as the war in the Middle East sends prices for fertilizer, a key input for growing crops, skyrocketing.

The agency is looking at multiple options to help with fertilizer prices, Rollins said. Farm groups have floated the idea of pausing countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphates, which have tightened the market for crop nutrients.

“I personally believe the Moroccan action could be really important,” Rollins said. “Hopefully we can make some more moves, not just Morocco, but other moves moving forward that will lessen the stress” on farmers, she said.

 

Export duties on Russian wheat increase 3.7-fold from March 25 to 515.6 rubles per tonne – Agriculture Ministry

The export duty on Russian wheat as of March 25 is 515.6 rubles per tonne compared to 140.9 rubles a week earlier, the Agriculture Ministry said.

It has therefore increased 3.7-fold.

The export duties on barley and corn remain at zero, where they have been for an extended period.

These rates will be in effect through March 31 inclusive.

The rates were calculated based on indicative prices of $231.1 per tonne for wheat ($231.6 for the previous period), $208 per tonne for barley ($217) and $219.8 per tonne for corn ($218.1).

Russia introduced a grain damper mechanism on June 2, 2021, which stipulates floating duties on the export of wheat, corn and barley and the return of funds received from them to subsidize agricultural producers. The duties are calculated weekly from indicators based on the prices of export contracts registered on the Moscow Exchange. The duty is 70% of the difference between the reference and indicative prices.

The base price is currently 18,000 rubles per tonne for wheat and 17,875 rubles per tonne for barley and corn.

 

SovEcon Raises Russian Wheat-Export Outlook on Stronger Demand

SovEcon raised its Russian wheat-export forecasts for the current and next season amid improving demand, partly as the war in the Middle East adds to supply risks.

• The export outlook was increased by 1.1m tons to 46.5m tons for the 2025-26 season, and by 2.1m tons to 43.8m tons for 2026-27, it said in a note
• While crop prospects in the Northern Hemisphere are still broadly favorable, risks are emerging, including deteriorating winter-wheat conditions amid dryness in the US, it said
  • In Europe and Ukraine, higher fertilizer prices — which have climbed amid disruptions due to the Middle East conflict — could weigh on production
• Says a weaker ruble and steady demand from importers helped Russian wheat prices to climb around $6 in recent weeks to about $240 a ton, the highest since August 2025
• “Importers are becoming more active,” SovEcon head Andrey Sizov said. “Combined with rising input costs in Europe and Ukraine and worsening weather in the US, this increases the market’s sensitivity to any supply disruptions”

 

Brazil soy exports seen reaching 15.87 mln tons in March – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 15.87 MILLION TNS IN MARCH VERSUS 16.32 MILLION TNS ESTIMATED IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.44 MILLION TNS IN MARCH VERSUS 2.66 MILLION TNS ESTIMATED IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

 

China Seeks to Work With Brazil to Ensure Stable Grain Supply

Chinese Vice Agriculture Minister Zhang Zhili and his Brazilian counterpart Luis Rua held a meeting in Beijing to discuss key areas in agricultural cooperation, according to a statement from the Beijing-based ministry.

• China is willing to work with Brazil to explore new potential in areas such as supply chain resilience and agricultural machinery, Zhang says
  • Willing to jointly advance green transformation of agriculture and play a constructive role in ensuring stable and smooth global grain supply chains

 

Hormuz-driven fertilizer shortage could raise grain prices, Goldman Sachs says

Disruptions to nitrogen fertilizer supply through the Strait of Hormuz could reduce global grain yields and shift planting decisions, potentially lifting grain prices, Goldman Sachs said in a report on Tuesday.

Fertilizer shortages may lead to lower grain output through delayed or suboptimal nitrogen application and encourage farmers to plant less fertilizer-intensive crops such as soybeans, the report noted.

In the U.S., where farmers import up to 50% of urea fertilizer in some years, spring planting could face challenges as supplies remain around 25% below typical levels, according to The Fertilizer Institute.

Nitrogen fertilizer, which accounts for roughly 20% of grain production costs, has seen prices rise 40% since the onset of the conflict, Goldman said. A quarter of global nitrogen trade and about 20% of LNG shipments — key for nitrogen production — transit the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively blocked since the war in Iran started.

Supply disruptions could tighten availability and increase production costs elsewhere, the bank warned.

“Spare fertilizer production capacity outside the Middle East appears limited,” Goldman added, citing production constraints in Russia, which typically accounts for around 15% of global nitrogen fertilizer exports due to facility attacks and export limits, as well as China’s likely extension of fertilizer export restrictions beyond August.

While U.S. farmers remain relatively insulated for now due to advanced procurement ahead of planting season, disruptions in Europe, Australia and the Southern Hemisphere could bolster demand for U.S. grain exports and raise U.S. grain prices, the bank said.

However, delays to March fertilizer shipments might affect April availability, compounded by the lack of U.S. strategic reserves or quick domestic production scalability.

 

India’s vegetable oil buyers step back, betting war-driven rally will ease

Indian vegetable oil refineries are curtailing purchases of palm oil, soyoil and sunflower oil, betting that the Iran war-driven price rally will not last and that they can replenish stocks after the conflict ends, industry officials told Reuters.

Lower buying by India, the world’s largest importer of vegetable oils, could limit gains in Malaysian palm oil FCPOc3 and U.S. soyoil prices, while supporting local vegetable oil prices and domestic oilseed growers.

Palm oil prices earlier this month climbed to their highest in more than a year on expectations that rising crude oil prices, driven by the Middle East conflict, would boost demand for the tropical oil from the biodiesel sector.

“There’s no need to panic-buy. There are ample stocks available in the global market, and prices will come down sharply the moment the war ends,” said a senior official with a leading edible oil importing company, which has curtailed imports for March and April delivery.

India, which meets nearly two-thirds of its vegetable oil needs through imports, brought in an average 1.36 million metric tons a month in the marketing year that ended in October 2025.

Imports are likely to fall to about 1.1 million tons in March, with palm oil shipments seen at around 680,000 tons, down from 847,689 tons the previous month, according to estimates from three dealers at global trade houses.

“Indian buyers have largely stayed on the sidelines over the past few days. The recent correction in palm oil prices may attract some buying, but overall sentiment remains wait-and-watch,” said Sandeep Bajoria, chief executive of Sunvin Group, a vegetable oil brokerage and consultancy firm.

Malaysian palm oil was trading 1.7% lower on Tuesday.

Stock levels from recent months of imports are comfortable, encouraging Indian buyers to bet the war will not last long, said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house.

Supplies from India’s new-season rapeseed crop have started arriving, with output estimated at a record high, helping to partly offset lower imports, the dealer said.

India buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia, and imports soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia, and Ukraine.

 

Kazakhstan bans animal feed wheat imports from Russia after cattle disease outbreak

Kazakhstan banned imports of animal feed wheat from Russia after an outbreak of cattle diseases in several Russian regions bordering Kazakhstan led to mass culling of livestock, a document issued by the State Inspection Committee showed.

Russian authorities identified the diseases as pasteurellosis, a severe bacterial pneumonia, and rabies, but many veterinarians and farmers have said that pasteurellosis can be treated with antibiotics and does not require slaughter.

The culling of thousands of animals in the Novosibirsk region has sparked rare protests in Russia and prompted calls by farmers for the resignation of top government officials overseeing agriculture.

“This measure is aimed at ensuring veterinary safety, in connection with the recent deterioration of the epizootic situation,” the document, dated March 21, said. Imports of other grains used for animal feed production are also banned.

Kazakhstan’s Agriculture Ministry told Reuters that the ban does not apply to food grade wheat from Russia. Kazakhstan imported 0.9 million metric tons of wheat, both for food and for animal feed, from Russia since September 2025.

 

Russia stops ammonium nitrate exports for one month amid global supply crunch

• Russia controls up to 40% of global ammonium nitrate trade
• Exports suspension will allow domestic market to be prioritized
• Fertilizers in global supply crunch due to Strait of Hormuz closure

Russia, which controls up to 40% of the global trade in ammonium nitrate, said on Tuesday it will stop exports of the fertilizer for one month until April 21 to ensure sufficient supply during the spring planting season.

Russia, a major fertiliser exporter, lacks the capacity to boost production this year amid a global supply crunch caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 24% of global trade in ammonia, an ingredient of ammonium nitrate, passes.

The Agriculture Ministry said it had stopped all issued licenses for ammonium nitrate exports and will not issue new ones, with the exception of those pertaining to government contracts. Russia produces a quarter of the world’s ammonium nitrate.

“In the context of growing export demand for nitrogen fertilizers, the suspension of their supply abroad will allow the needs of the domestic market to be prioritized during the spring fieldwork season,” the ministry said.

 

England Sees Drought Risk Dwindle After Months of Heavy Rain

Exceptional winter rainfall in England means there’s now little risk of drought this year, UK environment officials said.

All areas of England have recovered from last year’s parched conditions, which included the driest spring in more than a century and the warmest summer on record. Water companies’ hosepipe bans and heavy rainfall in recent months mean the country’s reservoirs are now 95% full, the Environment Agency said.

In February, rainfall was more than 50% higher than the long-term average. Hundreds of properties were flooded, and the road and rail network saw significant disruption.

This type of rapid move from drought to flood is likely to become more common because of climate change, the agency said. Despite the country’s recovery from last year’s abnormally dry conditions, a “flash drought” — caused by a mixture of very dry weather and high temperatures — is still possible.

“We enter spring in a favorable position, but we can never be complacent,” Helen Wakeham, the agency’s director of water, said in a statement.

The rest of March is expected to be drier than average and there’s “no strong indication at this time of a shift towards significantly wetter conditions,” Sarah Davies, head of environment and energy at the Met Office forecaster, said in a separate statement.

 

 

 

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