ADMIS News
COFFEE
May Coffee was lower early Wednesday after reaching its highest level since February 3 on Tuesday. Brazil is expected to have a strong crop this year, but Brazilian farmers are reportedly reluctant to sell ahead of harvest. The Brazilian real is holding around its highest level in almost two years, which lowers the incentive to export. World Weather Inc. said periodic rains over the next week to ten days in Brazilian growing areas should be sufficient to support favorable crop development. ICE certified stocks increased by 1,176 bags on Tuesday to 533,737. This was after they had declined 53,000 bags over the course of the three previous sessions.
SUGAR
May Sugar was lower early Wednesday but inside the range of the past four sessions and holding most of its gains from last week. Lower crude oil and gasoline prices this morning may lower the incentive for cane processors to switch their crushing activity from sugar to ethanol. Reuters points out that Brazil’s state-controlled oil company Petrobras, which supplies about 80% of the gasoline in that country, has yet to increase domestic prices. Aside from the ethanol theme, the sugar market is also looking at a lower surplus this year (with some analysts even calling for a deficit), a lower Indian output than initially forecasts, and the possibility of El Nino developing this summer that could reduce monsoon rains in India. India sugar exports have recently picked up with the recovery in prices. In the meantime, World Weather Inc. says Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines will continue to receive frequent rain and thunderstorm activity over the next two weeks, maintaining adequate to abundant soil moisture for normal crop use.
COCOA
May Cocoa was lower early Monday but was still inside a relatively narrow range the market has observed since bouncing its mild rally off the contract lows in early March. Good growing conditions in West Africa and low demand expectations limit the upside. World Weather Inc. says slowly increasing shower and thunderstorm activity will occur during the next week will continue the favorable outlook. GEPEX reported Ivory Coast’s cocoa grind at 53,058 metric tons in February, which was up 1.1% from a year ago. Cumulative grind since the start of the season in October is down 5.9% from last year, but at lease the recent trend is positive. ICE cocoa stocks increased 13,061 bags on Tuesday to 2.349 million, their highest since July 28.
COTTON
May Cotton was higher early Wednesday in a reversal of the selloff/correction of the five previous sessions but it was back near unchanged as the session progressed. Slightly lower crude oil and slightly higher equity markets may have eased concerns about inflation and lower demand. Dry weather continues to be a concern for the upcoming US crop. World Weather Inc. expected rainfall in West and South Texas to continue to be restricted over the next ten days. The market could see more consolidation ahead of the Prospective Plantings report on the 31st. In their Outlook Forum in February, USDA projected 2026 plantings at 9.40 million acres, up from 9.28 million last year but down from 11.18 million in 2024.
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