Global Ag News For March 23.2026

TOP HEADLINES

Chinese Pig Prices Hit 15-Year Low as War Costs Worsen Margins

Chinese pig farmers are facing worsening losses, as tepid domestic consumption of pork is compounded by rising costs from the war in Iran.

The government has been urging breeders since last year to reduce sow numbers and slaughter rates to better align supply with demand. It did so again last week, and also said it’s buying frozen pork for state reserves to support the market. The intervention comes after pig prices crashed to their weakest in at least 15 years, according to data from Shanghai JC Intelligence Co., and producer margins plumbed four-year lows.

Economic growth in China has sputtered since the pandemic, and households are spending less on their favorite meat. The government, meanwhile, is keen to keep food deflation at bay as it pursues an economic agenda based on lifting consumption.

But farmers haven’t cut their cloth accordingly, and there’s still a surplus of sows for breeding. Feeding those vast pig herds could become more expensive as global agricultural markets respond to disruptions to energy and fertilizer supplies from the Middle East.

The two main feed ingredients, soybean meal and corn, have jumped on the Dalian exchange since the US and Israeli strikes on Iran began. The stress on crop markets will only get worse the longer the Strait of Hormuz is effectively blocked to shipments.

The squeeze on incomes, and the government’s pressure, could force China’s farmers to hasten production cuts over the next two quarters, or even exit the industry, according to a note from commodity market researcher Mysteel.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 9 1/4 in SRW, up 8 1/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 7 1/4; Soybeans up 7 1/2; Soymeal up $0.40; Soyoil up 0.44.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 7 1/4 in SRW, down 2 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 18 3/4; Soybeans up 13 1/2; Soymeal up $16.20; Soyoil up 2.00.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 13 in SRW, up 34 in HRW, up 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 24 1/4; Soybeans down 2; Soymeal up $7.90; Soyoil up 4.10.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 19.2% in SRW, up 19.4% in HRW, up 11.1% in HRS; Corn is up 7.4%; Soybeans up 13.4%; Soymeal up 11.5%; Soyoil up 37.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 26) Soybeans down 9 yuan; Soymeal down 21; Soyoil up 80; Palm oil up 94; Corn up 25 — Malaysian Palm is up 83.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 83 ringgit (+1.83%) at 4611.

There were changes in registrations (-28 Soymeal). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 94 Oats; 641 Corn; 523 Soybeans; 1,536 Soyoil; 213 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 20 were: SRW Wheat up 1,058 contracts, HRW Wheat down 137, Corn up 2,905, Soybeans up 2,525, Soymeal up 10,398, Soyoil up 2,442.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 23 MARCH 2026

• NORTH AMERICA: Warm temperatures continue across much of the U.S., while the Plains and the Northwest’s winter wheat areas experience ongoing dry conditions.
• SOUTH AMERICA: Warm temperatures with dry spells will persist across the Pampas corn and soybean regions, while Brazil’s Center-West and South turn dry, and wet spells remains confined to the Southeast and Northeast.
• EUROPE: Central Europe will see near normal to cooler temperatures over the next 15 days, with wet spells across Germany and Poland.
• ASIA: Asia will remain mostly dry, except for brief wet spells in the central and northern wheat‑growing regions of China.
• AFRICA: Wet spells are likely to favor cocoa development in Ghana and Ivory Coast and support Ethiopia’s coffee crop, whereas continued rains may delay corn harvest progress in South Africa.
• TELECONNECTIONS: MJO Phase 8 is forecast to bring wet conditions across South America and Africa through first half of April.

 

HEAVY RAINFALL FORECAST IS UPHELD FOR THE CROP AREAS OF THE ARGENTINIAN PAMPAS

Weather anomaly severity: High (Argentina)

Crops impacted: Corn, Soybean, Coffee, Sugarcane

Preferred model for the next 5 days: EC Op

Preferred model for the 6-15 day timeframe: EC Ens

Forecast confidence: High for the next 10 days, very low for day 11-15

Model change from previous runs: Wetter for Eastern Brazil for day 11-15

Significant weather anomalies:

Brazil:

• A major change in the precipitation pattern next week, with a trend to dry conditions in Northern, Southeast and Central Brazil
• 10-day rainfall deficits between 10-40 mm normal along the northern regions as well as Goais and Sao Paulo region
• Regional rains will arrive in the South early next week, with 10-30 mm surpluses in Rio Grande do Sul
• Moderate heat to prevail in the South, with temperatures 2-4 °C above normal throughout the next 10 days (daily average 24-27 °C in Parana region)
• EC 45-day comment: Expansion for dry/warm conditions in the South/Southeast in April, with relatively high forecast confidence
• Easing rains in key coffee areas will be favorable for reducing excessive moisture and for crop development
• Arrival of local rains in the south will help late soybean growth, while it shouldn’t affect harvest pace

Argentina:

• A transitions form cold to warm pattern throughout the next 15 days, with temperatures rising from 3-6 °C below normal during the next 6 days to 1-3°C above normal late next week
• Flooding rainfall totals for the next 10 days across the northern crop areas of the Pampas (30-100 mm above normal in Entre Rios, Santa Fe), moderate precipitation activity in Buenos Aires Province and relatively dry conditions in Córdoba (15 mm below normal)
• Wet conditions will benefit late developing soybean and corn at critical yield formation stages, though may disrupt early planted corn harvest and flooding rains may damage mature crop
• Weather discussion: High-pressure dominated outlook will support a trend to dry conditions in Brazil. The influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation phases 7-8 may diminish gradually, resulting in a reduced impact on rainfall patterns.

 

Northern Plains: A strong cold front brought a wave of cooler air into the region over the weekend, after some extreme warmth late last week. The region will be in the active zone this week, with waffling temperatures and some chances for precipitation. Temperatures should rise next week and the weather pattern may feature more widespread and heavier precipitation, though that is a bit uncertain. The region would certainly welcome some precipitation ahead of spring planting.

Central/Southern Plains: Extreme heat this weekend was suppressed by a strong cold front moving through. Temperatures again will rise quite significantly this week before another strong front moves through on Thursday and Friday with another round of cooler air. Temperatures continue on the rollercoaster ride with rising readings next week. Despite all the fronts, precipitation is not occurring, which is causing drought to rise significantly across the region, especially in the west. The weather pattern may get more active next week, but that does not guarantee precipitation for some of the driest areas. Winter wheat conditions are falling significantly and soil moisture conditions are not favorable for many areas for spring planting.

Midwest: Extreme heat moved in on Saturday but was quickly squashed on Sunday as a strong cold front moved through. That is producing some showers across the Ohio Valley on Sunday. A couple of fronts will hang out across the north where showers may occur over the next few days, but a stronger front will move through on Thursday with another round of colder air and scattered showers. The weather pattern may get more active next week, which would increase potential for strong thunderstorms and heavy rain, favorable for increasing soil moisture and reducing drought ahead of spring planting.

Delta: Drought conditions worsened over the weekend as extreme warmth built into the region. A front is failing to bring through any precipitation on Sunday and drier conditions are likely even as another front moves through on Friday. While this will make fieldwork very easy, it will not be favorable for early growth as soil moisture is becoming limited again after some good rain in early March. The pattern looks to be a bit more active next week and into early April, but may not necessarily bring through much precipitation.

Brazil: Scattered showers fell across the country this weekend, but were spottier in central Brazil. A front coming up from Argentina will keep showers going for much of the week, but the forecast is trending toward drier conditions this weekend and through next week for much of the safrinha corn areas as well as the south. Conditions are mixed for safrinha corn so far, and there is roughly a month left to the wet season.

Argentina: A front brought scattered showers to much of the country over the weekend, helping to stabilize crop conditions. Heavy rain will continue across the north for Monday and some showers will be possible later this week and weekend. Though the rainfall appears to be favorable, much of the crop is either in the midst of harvest, as is the early-planted corn, or heading toward maturity, such as early-planted soybeans. So the rainfall is only somewhat helpful. Drier conditions earlier this year have already taken their toll on production.

 

The player sheet for 3/20 had funds: net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 1,500 corn, sellers of 2,000 soybeans, sellers of 3,000 soymeal, and sellers of 1,500 soyoil.

 

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 74,382 metric tons of rice, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers was March 11.
• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 8,000 metric tons of long-grain white rice sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers was March 13.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is March 24.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is March 25.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Cattle on Feed Placements Rose to 1.61M Head in Feb.

Placements onto feedlots of capacity of 1,000 or more rose 3.7% from a year ago, according to the USDA’s monthly report.

Analysts were expecting a rise of 0.3%

• The US feedlot herd as of March 1 were down 0.2% y/y to 11.549m head
• Cattle marketed from feedlots declined 6.8% to 1.522m head

 

China eases rules over presence of weeds in Brazil’s soybean shipments, Globo Rural reports

China has eased rules related to the presence of weeds in soybean cargoes shipped by Brazil, Brazilian news outlet Globo Rural reported on Friday, citing a document from local government.

China is not going to implement a zero tolerance policy for the presence of weeds in the shipments, a document from Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture said, according to Globo Rural.

The move comes as Brazil has been negotiating soybean inspection and safety requirements for shipments of the crop to China, following complaints from Beijing.

 

China Soy Imports Seen Rising to 108M Tons Next Season: USDA

Increase of 2 million tons for upcoming 2026-27 season reflects “moderate growth in demand for soybean meal by China’s feed industry,” the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service says in a report.

• Agency notes that 10.8 million tons of an initial 12 million ton target for US soy orders for the current season has been either purchased or shipped as of Feb. 26
  • Due to remaining 10% tariff in China, purchases have been limited to state-owned entities
• However, reduction of tariffs on imports of canola from Canada could “reduce demand for competing oilseed and meal imports”
• NOTE: USDA won’t make an official projection for the 2026-27 season until a report due May 12

 

Brazil’s soy harvest surpasses 65%, yet still behind last year, Patria AgroNegocios says

Farmers in Brazil harvested 65.79% of the expected 2025/26 soybean area, below the 73.84% seen at this time last year, but near the five-year average of 66.96%, consultancy firm Patria AgroNegocios said on Friday.

• Weather conditions are once again a cause for concern in some regions of central Brazil, Patria said, with continued excessive rainfall.
• It noted that yields remain within expectations, and the results are generally positive.
• Mato Grosso state continues to lead the country on pace, having harvested 99.1% of its estimated area.
• Brazil is the world’s largest producer of soy.

 

Argentina grain exports jump as strong harvest meets global turmoil

Argentina is shipping out grains at a strong pace this season as record sunflower exports and booming corn sales help absorb one of the country’s biggest harvests in years, the Rosario grains exchange said on Friday, though the conflict in the Middle East is adding volatility to global prices and raising freight costs.

Argentina is benefiting from record wheat and corn production and its best sunflower harvest of the century, the exchange said in a report, with exports providing an outlet for abundant supplies.

But the wider global backdrop is becoming more unstable, as war-related disruptions to shipping routes and heavy speculative trading in futures markets cause sharper swings in grain prices.

Sunflower has emerged as one of the biggest success stories of the 2025/26 season, the exchange said, with sunflower oil exports posting their strongest start to a marketing year since 2005 and shipments of raw sunflower seed hitting unprecedented levels in the first quarter.

Corn is also off to a quick start. With the harvest advancing and heavy arrivals at the Rosario export hub, the first month of Argentina’s new corn export season is expected to break records, topping 4 million metric tons, the report said.

Argentina’s corn remains competitively priced on world markets despite rising shipping costs, helping exporters maintain strong sales. That edge could weaken later in the year, however, when Brazil’s second-season corn crop begins reaching global buyers.

Still, the strong harvests and robust export demand at home will face headwinds from the conflict in the Middle East, including disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, the report said.

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Lower soybean costs and rising byproduct prices boost industry margins

The industry crush margin rose this week both in Brazil and the United States, driven by higher byproducts prices.

In the domestic market, in addition to lower soybean costs, the margin increase also reflects soybean oil price rises. It is worth noting that demand for soy oil from the biodiesel industry remains strong amid concerns over fuel supply and rumors of a strike in road transport.

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, prices for soybean meal moved down 0.2% from March 12-19. The Brazilian value of soy oil rose by 2.3% in the same comparison, averaging BRL 6,706.80 per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS) on March 19.

Considering prices for soybean, soy meal and soy oil in SP, the crush margin increased by 9.8% from March 12-19, at BRL 635.56/ton on March 19. On March 17, it reached BRL 714.32/ton, the highest since August 20, 2024.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Prices remain firm in Brazil and in the US

Corn prices continue firm in both domestic and international markets. In Brazil, producers are focused on crop activities rather than new deals, while demand stays strong as buyers aim to replenish inventories.

However, some sellers and buyers avoid trading large-volume trades amid uncertainties stemming from the current geopolitical scenario and logistics in Brazil. Rumors of a possible strike in road transportation, driven by rising costs due to higher oil prices abroad, are reinforcing a more cautious stance among market participants.

Between March 12 and 19, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn prices upped 0.1%, to close at BRL 71.63 per 60-kg bag on March 19. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, corn values increased 1% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 1.1% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) from March 12-19.

 

Brazilian city trials new biofuel aimed at replacing diesel entirely

As widening conflict in the Middle East roils global energy markets, one city in southern Brazil is planning to run more of its municipal fleet on an innovative homegrown biofuel designed to replace diesel entirely.

Nestled among rolling expanses of soybean farms in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, the city of Passo Fundo is deploying a diesel alternative for its municipal fleet made from feedstocks including soy, animal fats and used oils.

Whereas traditional biodiesel is blended with petroleum-based diesel at a ratio of 15% in Brazil, the new fuel is designed to fully replace the fossil fuel in any vehicle that takes diesel, cutting carbon emissions and potentially reducing costs.

Be8, one of Brazil’s biggest biodiesel firms, received regulatory approval in late 2024 to start producing the new fuel, called BeVant, in Passo Fundo, aiming initially to make 28 million liters (7.4 million gallons) annually.

BeVant is a so-called drop-in for the fossil fuel and can be used in regular diesel engines without needing modifications, Be8 said.

With crude prices soaring due to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, triggering fears of diesel shortages in Brazil, Passo Fundo Mayor Pedro Almeida said the new fuel has brought some peace of mind.

“When we talk about these conflicts … and when we have an alternative fuel like BeVant available, that represents, without a doubt, a very large competitive potential,” said Almeida.

Neither the mayor’s office nor Be8 commented on the current cost per liter of BeVant, but the company said it was around 15% more expensive than biodiesel and much cheaper than its direct competitor, HVO, or green diesel.

 

Russia says multiple cattle illnesses are complicating Siberian outbreak

• Culling of sick cattle sparks rare protests
• Official says other illnesses complicating pasteurellosis outbreak
• US report cites possibility of foot-and-mouth disease
• Russia denies allegations in USDA report

Russian authorities said on Friday “other diseases” were complicating an outbreak of cattle illness that has led to mass culling in Siberia, which they have blamed on pasteurellosis and rabies.

The culling of thousands of animals has sparked rare protests in wartime Russia and prompted calls by farmers for the resignation of top government officials overseeing agriculture.

“The veterinary services found it difficult to implement such unpopular measures,” Sergei Dankvert, head of the government commission investigating the outbreak, said in an interview with Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper.

“However, this concerns an outbreak of a dangerous infectious disease, pasteurellosis, complicated by other illnesses, and incurable rabies,” he said, without specifying what the other illnesses were.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) in a report published on Friday cited “local sources and trading contacts” who alleged that “the scale of these measures may indicate an unconfirmed outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease.”

It added that the authorities’ response to the outbreak “raised concerns about the adequacy of current vaccines and the potential impact on Russia’s cattle trade”.

Russia obtained recognition from the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) in 2025 as a foot-and-mouth-free territory. The highly contagious viral disease usually requires mass culling, and any confirmation of its presence could have a massive impact on Russian agricultural exports, which President Vladimir Putin has ordered officials to increase by 50% by 2030.

The FAS also published an official Russian document dated February 25 that indicated a ban on all livestock exports from 15 affected regions in Siberia and central Russia was in place.

The Novosibirsk region of Siberia declared a state of emergency to tackle the outbreak earlier this week, and officials attributed it to pasteurellosis – a severe bacterial pneumonia – and rabies.

The Russian agriculture watchdog agency told Reuters that allegations in the USDA report “were not true” and emphasized the importance of relying on reports by WOAH rather than “claims from anonymous sources.”

It stressed that planned vaccinations of animals against foot-and-mouth disease have been conducted in the Novosibirsk region since 2022 and are routinely monitored by the watchdog.

In a separate statement to Reuters, the Agriculture Ministry added that Russia reports all cases of diseases requiring such reporting to WOAH.

Both the ministry and the watchdog said that the ongoing vaccinations against foot-and-mouth disease in neighbouring Kazakhstan are not related to outbreaks of pasteurellosis in Russia.

Culls continued on Friday in the village of Kozikha, 70 km (45 miles) southwest of Novosibirsk, according to witness accounts and multiple videos from the area.

One of the most prominent protesters, Svetlana Panina, who lost 150 head of cattle in the culling, posted a video saying she had been briefly detained for questioning as a witness in a case involving an arson attack at an animal burial site.

Dankvert said laboratory tests showed the pasteurellosis involved in the original outbreak had mutated and started to behave more aggressively than usual.

“In such a situation, the only way to stop the spread is the rapid removal and destruction of sick and suspect animals, as is done worldwide,” he said.

 

US Milk Production Rose 3.1% Y/y in February, USDA Says

Agency releases report on website.

• Output for the 24 major-producing states was 17.56b lbs, 529m more than in February of last year
• Milk per cow averaged 1,912 lbs, a 0.7% increase from last year

Estimated output for all the US rose 2.9% y/y to 18.255b lbs

 

 

 

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