Written Commentary
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold: Gold is extending its rout into a ninth consecutive session, though is trading above session lows following President Trump’s comments that he had asked the Department of Defense to postpone military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days. Trump made the announcement on Truth Social just hours before a deadline he had set for Tehran to “fully open” the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to destroy Iranian power plants in a further escalation in a conflict now in its fourth week. However, Iran’s Fars news agency said after Trump’s post that there was no direct communication with the US or through intermediaries.
While Trump’s comments mark the first signs of de-escalation since the conflict began, energy prices remain elevated and still present material upside risks to inflation. Fed repricing is particularly stark, with markets not pricing in any policy change from the central bank for the rest of 2026. However, the Fed is more likely to cut rates than to raise them given its dual mandate and the possibility of the bank looking through an energy price shock in an effort to support the labor market.
Global markets are digesting a synchronized hawkish shift across major central banks layered on top of a worsening Middle East conflict and persistent energy‑driven inflation risks. This combination has driven a sharp repricing in rate expectations, with markets not expecting the Fed to move on rates in 2026. Still, ongoing geopolitical risks and central‑bank reserve diversification continue to underpin longer‑term demand for bullion as a macro hedge, suggesting that while the near‑term balance of risks is tilted toward volatility around US data and Fed‑speak, structural support from official‑sector buying and strategic investors remains in place on deeper dips.
Silver: Silver futures are down 2.5% to $68. Silver remains down meaningfully from its January highs, and the wide 52‑week range highlights the role of speculative participation.
BASE METALS
Copper: Copper prices have recovered from three-month lows earlier in the session on the back of President Trump’s comments regarding talks between the US and Iran. Still, risks around the conflict remain as a headwind to prices given the uncertainty and potential impacts on demand and monetary policy. LME copper warehouse stocks have climbed relentlessly to 342,350 tonnes, nearly double the late-January level, and the broader exchange inventory overhang above 1.25 million tonnes continues to weigh. CNBC CFO Council executives have flagged that corporate patience with elevated oil may last only two more weeks before spending cuts begin, a signal that copper’s demand outlook could deteriorate further.
Copper looks like a market caught between structural bulls and cyclical sceptics. On one side, investors focused on grid build‑out, renewables and data‑center demand continue to view pullbacks as opportunities to maintain exposure to a constrained supply story. On the other, rising inventories, uneven Chinese property activity and slower factory growth in several major economies are encouraging macro funds to fade rallies and keep overall risk light.
China is in a relatively quiet week for data, with industrial profit data due Friday set to be the highlight. Industrial profits have declined in recent years due to persistent price wars and an oversupply of manufactured goods. That should lend focus to SHFE warehouse levels for clues on Chinese copper demand.
Zinc: Zinc shed 0.55%.
Aluminum: Aluminum dropped 1.15%. Expectations of shortages have underpinned prices. LME aluminum stocks have fallen to their lowest since July. The war in Iran has affected deliveries from aluminum producers in the region that account for around 9% of global aluminum supply and sparked fears of disrupted imports of raw materials such as alumina to these producers via the Strait of Hormuz.
Tin: Tin lost 4.33%.
Lead: Lead dipped 0.63%.
Nickel: Nickel declined 1.23%.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
