Metals Complex Continues its Descent

PRECIOUS METALS

Gold: Gold prices are sharply lower as a hawkish repricing of rate expectations, a post‑FOMC bond sell‑off, and a strong USD on safe‑haven demand amid Middle East escalation rising oil prices weigh on the metal. April COMEX contracts are down 7% to $4,545. Energy prices continue to dictate sentiment and present material upside risks to inflation that could also hurt global economic growth. Gold continues its balancing act of safe-haven demand and bearish inflationary pressures.

Flows remain central to the story. Gold’s sharp drop on Wednesday reflected forced liquidation and systematic selling after the Fed signaled a slower and shallower easing path, prompting a reassessment of rate‑cut probabilities beyond mid‑year and reducing the appeal of non‑yielding assets at the margin. At the same time, ongoing geopolitical risks and central‑bank reserve diversification continue to underpin longer‑term demand for bullion as a macro hedge, suggesting that while the near‑term balance of risks is tilted toward volatility around US data and Fed‑speak, structural support from official‑sector buying and strategic investors remains in place on deeper dips.

Silver: Silver futures are down 13% to $67.48. Silver also faces pressure from profit‑taking after the January spike and concern that industrial demand, particularly from solar, electronics, and broader manufacturing, may not fully offset tighter financial conditions and slower global goods growth. Silver’s volatility remains elevated, with a 52‑week range stretching from roughly $31 to above $120 per ounce that underscores the extent of speculative participation and the metal’s high beta to both the precious complex and risk assets more broadly.

Platinum: Platinum is down 8 % to $1,892.

BASE METALS

Copper: Copper prices are lower, with benchmark three-month copper on the LME falling 3.8% to $11,925 a ton in official activity after dropping to $11,754, its lowest since December 19. Meanwhile, central bank decisions are in focus as inflation risks have skewed to the upside, while concerns that higher energy prices will hurt economic growth dent sentiment. The Fed, Bank of England, and European Central Bank all held rates in their meetings, noting that material risks to inflation have risen. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates for a second straight month, warning about inflation risks from the Middle East war.

Exchange inventories have continued to rise, with LME stocks climbing toward the mid‑330,000‑tonne area, the highest in more than six years, reinforcing perceptions of ample near‑term availability and helping cap rallies despite still‑elevated outright prices relative to last year. Macro signals from China remain mixed: industrial output and retail sales beat expectations in the January–February data, but property remains a drag and Beijing’s 4.5–5% growth target has been read as cautious, leaving copper in a consolidation phase rather than a clear uptrend as traders weigh stronger headline data against weakness in traditional construction demand.

Zinc: Zinc lost 3.1% to $3,035.

Aluminum: Aluminum fell 7.2% to $3,154 as speculators scrambled to liquidate bullish positions. Still, expectations of shortages have underpinned prices. LME aluminum stocks have fallen to their lowest since July. The war in Iran has affected deliveries from aluminum producers in the region that account for around 9% of global aluminum supply and sparked fears of disrupted imports of raw materials such as alumina to these producers via the Strait of Hormuz.

Tin: Tin plunged 7.5% to $41,705.

Lead: Lead gave up 2.2% to $1,871.

Nickel: Nickel slid 4.1% to $16,450.

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