Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Mostly higher trade across the Ag space overnight as crude oil prices continue to recover from yesterday’s mid-session plunge. Weighing on energy prices were false reports that the US Navy escorted a tanker thru the Straits of Hormuz. Limiting the upside are reports the IEA recommend releasing 400 mil. barrels of oil from strategic reserves and reports the US military sunk several Iranian ships, including minelayers near the Straits of Hormuz. Spot crude is currently up $3.80 a barrel at $87.25 while holding within yesterday’s range. Inside trade for both RBOB and heating oil futures as well. Traders brace for a key inflation reading later today that is expected to show US consumer prices rose 2.4% YOY in Feb-26. Yesterday’s USDA WASDE reports were quickly forgotten with no changes to the US carryout est for corn, soybean or wheat. Rains are expected to fill in over EC and Southern Argentina over the next week providing some late season benefit to corn and soybeans. Rains in Brazil will continue to favor N. growing areas with only scattered moisture for the SC region and RGDS. In the US powerful storms and damaging winds continue to impact the central Midwest and Great Lakes region. Little to no rain for the SW plains and far WCB. Above normal temperatures in the west are expected to slide across the central Midwest and ECB in week 2 of the outlook. The US $$ is slightly higher while US equity markets are little changed.
Corn:
May-26 is up $.06 ½ at $4.59 ¾ near session highs. Dec-26 is up $.07 at $4.86 ½. No changes to US ending stocks holding at 2.127 bil. bu. with global stocks rising more than expected to 293.8 mmt. Brazil’s production was raised 1 mmt to 132 mmt, while Argentina was cut 1 mmt to 52 mmt. EIA data is expected to show ethanol production range between 319-331 mil. gallons vs. 322 mil. the previous week.
Soybeans:
May-26 beans are up $.16 ½ at $12.18 ½. May-26 meal is down a buck at $313.50 while holding support overnight at its 100 day MA at $312.10. May-26 oil has surged $.02 ½ to 68.12, perhaps anticipating RVO and SRE announcement ? US ending stocks held steady at 350 mil. bu. as a 5 mil. bu. increase in crush was offset by higher imports. Bean oil usage for biofuel production was slashed 800 mil. lbs. to 14 bil. while other domestic usage was upped 750 mil. bu. Production in Brazil and Paraguay was left unchanged while Argentina was cut .5 mmt to 48 mmt. Overnight spot board crush margins rebounded $.07 to $2.19 with bean oil PV stretching out to a new all-time high at 52.1%. US Treasury Sec. Bessent and USTR Greer are expected to meet with Chinese trade officials in Paris this weekend ahead of Pres. Trump/Xi meeting in Beijing in late March. Bulls remain hopeful for fresh Chinese purchases despite US Gulf FOB offers running $1.00-$1.30 over Brazilian offers into the summer months.
Wheat:
Prices range from $.06 to $.12 higher. CGO May-26 is up $.10 at $6.01 however holding within yesterday’s range. KC May-26 is up $.11 ½ at $6.20 also holding just below yesterday’s high. No ending stocks were left unchanged at 931 mil. bu. while global stocks drifted down to 277 mmt. Safras & Mercado forecast Brazilian acres in 2026 will fall 15.5% from YA to 1.985 mil. HA. Production is expected to drop 14.5% to 6.85 mmt, below the USDA forecast of 8 mmt.
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