Written Commentary
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold: Gold prices are higher as the dollar weakened, with April COMEX contracts rising 2.45% to $5,228. Despite the rebound, recent market dynamics suggest investors have favored dollar liquidity over gold amid rising energy prices, as the inflationary implications have tempered expectations for Federal Reserve easing.
Crude oil is trading just above $90 per barrel, easing from Monday’s highs but remaining elevated enough to keep bond yields firm. Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, limiting the metal’s upside despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
President Trump said he thinks the war against Iran “is very complete” and that Washington was “very far ahead” of his initial four to five week estimated time frame on Monday. Trump also eyed potential easing of sanctions on Russia to alleviate supply-side pressures on energy prices. However, Iran state media reported that an oil tanker has exploded near Abu Dhabi, casting doubt on Trump’s comments over a sooner-than-expected end to the conflict.
Energy markets remain the primary driver of sentiment. The conflict in Iran has disrupted roughly one-fifth of global crude and natural gas supply as Tehran targets shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on regional energy infrastructure continue. Qatar’s energy minister warned that Gulf producers could shut down exports within weeks if the conflict escalates further, a scenario that could push oil toward $150 per barrel.
On the macro front, February’s weak payroll report reinforced expectations for Fed easing later in the year, though rising energy prices have complicated the outlook by increasing inflation risks. Markets have shifted expectations toward easing in the fall, with September now favored as the likely starting point. Total easing priced for year-end has widened to roughly 42 bps from 38 bps on Monday. Attention now turns to Wednesday’s inflation report, which will provide a clearer gauge of price pressures before the latest escalation in Middle East tensions.
Silver: Silver futures are up 5.75% at $89.40.
Platinum: Platinum is up 2.15% to $2,215.
BASE METALS
Copper: Copper prices are higher, with benchmark three-month copper on the LME advancing 1.18%, as risk-sentiment improved following comments from President Trump on Monday and a drop in energy prices. Still, rising warehouse inventories and the broader conflict in Iran provide an obstacle to upside gains.
China’s unwrought copper imports fell in the first two months of 2026, according to China’s customs data on Tuesday, with still-high prices and the Lunar New Year break keeping demand for imported units sluggish. Copper imports declined by 16.1% year-over-year to 700,000 metric tons in the two months from January to February. During that time-frame, benchmark three-month copper on the LME rose 5.91% in January and 1.41% in February. The Yangshan copper premium, a gauge of China’s appetite for imported materials, dropped to $20 a ton in late January, the lowest since July 2024, though it picked up after the Lunar New Year break.
Copper inventories at the London Metal Exchange rose by 7,700 tons to 301,950 tons on Tuesday, the most since October 2024. Meanwhile, the large build in COMEX inventories seen last year, driven by concerns about potential US import tariffs, has stabilized, with stocks hovering around 545,000 tons.
Zinc: Zinc gained 0.69%.
Aluminum: Aluminum prices fell, as a wave of profit-taking took place following comments from President Trump on Monday. Benchmark three-month aluminum on the LME fell 0.78% to $3,359 per ton earlier in the morning. The metal hit a three-year high of $3,544 a ton on Monday.
Still, shipping disruptions from the Middle East continue to fuel supply concerns for the metal, while production from Gulf countries has dropped following force majeures from several Mideast smelters. The Gulf region produced 8% of the world’s aluminum last year. Worries about supplies have flipped the discount for the cash aluminum contract over the three-month forward into a premium or backwardation. It climbed to $47.4 a ton on Friday, the highest since February 2022 and was last around $32 a ton.
Aluminum stocks in the LME-registered warehouses fell to 454,655 tons on Tuesday, the lowest since July last year.
Tin: Tin fell 1.08%.
Lead: Lead gained 0.13%.
Nickel: Nickel is little changed.
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