Written Commentary
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold: Gold climbed to three-week highs after Friday’s Supreme Court ruling against President Trump’s tariff measures pressured the dollar and revived safe-haven demand. The administration responded by imposing a blanket 15% levy on imports, fueling further uncertainty over US trade policy. Trade tensions widened over the weekend, with Europe signaling it may pause ratification of its trade agreement with Washington and India delaying interim trade negotiations.
Geopolitical risks also remain elevated. President Trump warned Iran to reach a nuclear agreement within 10–15 days or face consequences, though the White House indicated some limited progress was made during recent talks in Geneva.
On the macro front, Friday’s data reinforced expectations for a patient Fed. Headline and core PCE both rose 0.4% month-over-month in December, pushing core inflation to 3.0% year-over-year, above target. Meanwhile, Q4 GDP slowed sharply to 1.4% from 4.4% in Q3, with government spending, exports, and shutdown effects weighing on growth. The mix of moderating activity but sticky inflation supports a steady policy stance rather than imminent easing.
Structural support for gold remains intact as central banks continue to diversify reserves away from the dollar and increase bullion purchases, reinforcing a steady underlying bid into 2026.
Silver: Silver futures are up 5.4% to $86.91
Platinum: Platinum is down 0.3% to $2,169.
BASE METALS
Copper: Copper prices are lower as inventories across warehouses continue to rise and as trade-related uncertainty weighed on sentiment ahead Chinese markets reopening on Tuesday. Benchmark three-month copper on the LME fell 0.4% to $12,913 after hitting a one-week high of $13,050 earlier in the session.
Copper inventories in LME-approved warehouses continued to build, reinforcing concerns about softening demand conditions. Stocks rose by 6,675 tons overnight to 241,825 tons, the highest level since March 2025, and are now up roughly 70% year-to-date. The steady accumulation points to subdued physical offtake and a lack of urgency from buyers.
Attention now turns to the reopening of Chinese markets on Tuesday, where domestic demand trends remain in focus. Recent softness in Chinese consumption has weighed on sentiment, and any signs of continued weakness could pressure prices further.
Zinc: Zinc fell 0.9% to $3,353.
Aluminum: Aluminum slipped 0.2% to $3,096.
Tin: Tin advanced 1.9% to $47,425.
Lead: Lead lost 0.4% to $1,958.
Nickel: Nickel climbed 1.2% to $17,560 after an Indonesian official said the government was considering revoking the environmental permit of a company after a landslide hit a mine waste zone at its nickel processing hub.
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