Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Mixed trade overnight with fresh news scarce. Export sales later this AM with CFTC-COT update this afternoon. USDA Sec. Rollins is expected to speak at today’s USDA Forum while the Supreme Court may rule by the end of the month on the Trump Admin. use of tariffs. Lingering rains in EC Argentina and NW growing areas while dry to the South. Recent rains have restored soil moisture to the EC region and to a lesser extent in the South. Southern regions of LaPampa and Buenos Aires return to a dryer pattern into month end. Dry across much of Brazil the past 24 hours. This week’s dryer pattern benefited soybean and 1st crop corn harvest along with 2nd crop corn plantings. Week 2 of the outlook shows increasing rains in the north while dry to the south. Winter has reemerged across the NC Midwest, at least temporarily. Mostly dry across the S. plains and WCB into month end with only lite amounts of moisture for the ECB. Forecasts continue to suggest above normal temperatures across the nation’s midsection into week 2 of the outlook. The US $$$ is slightly lower in 2 sided trade. April-26 crude oil is down $.40 a barrel. US stock indices are slightly lower.
Corn:
Mch-26 is up $.01 ¼ at $4.27 holding within yesterday’s range. First resistance is the 50 day MA at $4.34 ½ with support at this month’s low of $4.24. Yesterday’s EIA data showed ethanol production rebounded to 329 mil. gallons up from 326 the previous week which was in line with expectations at above the pace needed to reach the USDA corn usage forecast. The USDA Outlook Forum showed corn acres slipping 4.8 mil. from YA to 94 mil. with production down 7.4% to 15.755 bil. bu. Total demand is forecast to fall 400 mil. bu. to 16.070 bil. Exports and feed/residual both down 200 mil. Endings stocks at 1.837 bil. would be down 290 mil. from 25/26 MY. Export sales are forecast to range from 35-85 mil. bu.
Soybeans:
Mch-26 beans are down $.01 at $11.42 holding within this week’s range. Mch-26 meal is up $3.50 at $308.30 holding support at its 100 day MA. Mch-26 oil slipped 47 points to 59.21 while holding within yesterday’s range. Oil is overdue for a correction after reaching fresh contract highs 5 of the past 7 sessions. Crush margins jumped $.06 ½ yesterday to $1.86 bu., a 6 month high, while bean oil PV improved to a 7 month high at 49.5%. The USDA Outlook Forum showed bean acres jumping 3.8 mil. to 85 mil. with production up 4.4% to 4.450 bil. Total demand is forecast to jump 207 mil. bu. to 4.464 bil. Exports are forecast to rise 125 mil. to 1.70 bil. with crush up 85 mil. to 2.655 bil. Endings stocks little changed at 355 mil. bu. Bean oil demand for biofuel production is forecast to surge 17% to 17.3 bil. lbs. Exports are expected to drop 50% to 600 mil. lbs. Meal exports are forecast at a record 20,800 short tons. Export sales are expected to range from 14-44 mil. bu. of beans, 200-400k tons of meal and 0-16k tons of oil.
Wheat:
Prices range from $.01 lower to $.05 higher with CGO futures the leader to the upside. CGO Mch-26 is up $.05 at $5.64 ½ trading to a fresh 3 month high. Next resistance is $5.68. KC Mch-26 is up $.00 ½ at $5.66 trading to a 6 month high. The Outlook Forum showed wheat acres in 2026/27 slipping 300k to 45 mil. Trendline yields at only 50.8 bpa results in production at 1.860 bil. down 6%. Total demand is forecast to fall 50 mil. bu. to 1.978 bil. due to lower exports resulting in endings stocks steady at 933 mil. bu. Yesterday’s drought monitor showed US WW acres in drought rose 1% the past week to 46%, a 52 week high. Export sales are expected to range from 10-20 mil. bu.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
