Global Ag News For Feb 17.2026

TOP HEADLINES

Russian strike on Odesa region causes ‘incredibly serious’ damage to power infrastructure

A Russian strike on Ukraine’s southern Odesa region caused “incredibly serious” damage to power infrastructure supplying the regional capital, Ukrainian energy company DTEK said.

“Repairs will take a long time to restore the equipment to working order,” the company said on social media.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 6 3/4 in SRW, down 4 3/4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 3; Soybeans down 1 3/4; Soymeal down $3.00; Soyoil up 0.41.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 2 1/2 in SRW, up 5 3/4 in HRW, unchanged in HRS; Corn is up 2; Soybeans up 19 3/4; Soymeal up $7.70; Soyoil up 0.41.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 4 1/4 in SRW, down 6 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is up 3 1/4; Soybeans up 69 3/4; Soymeal up $13.00; Soyoil up 3.82.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 6.3% in SRW, up 4.1% in HRW, down 0.9% in HRS; Corn is down 2.5%; Soybeans up 9.6%; Soymeal up 3.9%; Soyoil up 19.0%.

China markets are closed for Holiday.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 30 ringgit (-0.74%) at 4016.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 94 Oats; 9 Corn; 301 Soybeans; 910 Soyoil; 163 Soymeal; 17 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 13 were: SRW Wheat down 4,466 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,544, Corn up 5,808, Soybeans up 6,846, Soymeal down 694, Soyoil up 6,895.

 

HIGH STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN THE ARGENTINIAN CROP AREAS OF CÓRDOBA

Weather anomaly severity: Moderate

Crops impacted: Corn, Soybean, Coffee, Sugarcane

Preferred model for the next 5 days: GFS Op

Preferred model for the 6-15 day timeframe: GFS Ens

Forecast confidence: High from day 1 to 10; Moderate from day 11 to 15

Forecast change: No significant change

 

Brazil: Scattered showers moved through southern Brazil over the weekend, but were very isolated over central Brazil, which may have allowed fieldwork to progress more rapidly as the country continues to harvest soybeans and plant corn. A front across the south will move back into central areas this week, though will still be awfully scattered for the rest of the week. They may intensify this weekend into next week, but the country needs the rain as subsoil moisture continues to be low for this time of year and will be counted on for the coming safrinha corn crop.

Argentina: A front brought scattered showers over the weekend, but most areas saw light rain while only a few lucky areas saw anything beneficial. A few more waves of showers will move through the country through Thursday before another dry stretch commences. The dry stretch may only last a week with showers returning by next Wednesday. Rain has improved soil moisture lately, but both corn and soybeans have been trying to improve conditions since the end of January with little progress. Crop conditions for both have not increased since the declines started in early January. For some of the crop, the rains are too late, but there is still time for the later-planted portions of both crops.

Northern Plains: Extremely warm air over the last week has all but melted all of the snow in the region, which is way too early. However, we still have some time to go to build up some snow before the true spring thaw. A big winter storm will move through with some heavy snow for northern areas Tuesday and Wednesday and additional snow may come to southern areas on Thursday. Colder temperatures will stick around for a little while as well, but are likely to rise ahead of the next big storm next week. Strong winds will also occur across the region with multiple big storms forecast for the end of February.

Central/Southern Plains: It was extremely warm over the weekend. Though some good rain fell across the region, soil moisture maps are not all that favorable for winter wheat, especially across the west, and drought is a big problem across Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas prior to spring planting. Many systems are forecast to move through the region, and could bring some batches of precipitation, but the forecast favors areas to the north and east for anything significant. Instead, strong winds could dry soils quicker, especially with temperatures remaining warm early this week and again next week.

Midwest: A system went across the southern half of the region with moderate rain over the weekend while warmer temperatures continued, especially in the west. Snowpack is extremely low across most of the region and we will need to see significant precipitation prior to spring planting to feel good. Streaks of drought, especially from Missouri to northwestern Ohio are the major issues heading into spring, though the weather pattern is opening up and promising some bigger storm potential. One system will move through late Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by another for Thursday and Friday. When added together, there is potential for widespread rain and thunderstorms south with snow across the north.

Delta: A system moved through over the weekend, which brought widespread precipitation to most areas. This will provide some boost to the Mississippi River, but more will be needed to ease the drought that is very widespread through the Delta prior to spring planting. Multiple larger storms are forecast for the rest of February, which may provide some benefit to the rivers, but favors the Plains and Midwest with the significant precipitation.

 

The player sheet for 2/13 had funds: net buyers of 500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 1,500 corn, buyers of 4,500 soybeans, buyers of 2,500 soymeal, and sellers of 2,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT SALE: A group of South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in an international tender, European traders said.
• WHEAT SALE: A group of South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 40,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from Canada in an international tender, European traders said. 

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is February 17.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for price offers is February 18.
• WHEAT TENDER: The TFMA group of importers in Thailand has issued an international tender to purchase at least 60,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat

 

 

TODAY

NOPA January US soybean crush estimated at 218.52 million bushels

• January crush slowed due to winter weather disruptions
• Largest-ever January crush, third largest for any month
• Soyoil stocks forecast to rise to 20-month high

The U.S. soybean crush likely slowed in January from a month earlier as winter weather disrupted operations at some processing plants, according to analysts surveyed ahead of a National Oilseed Processors Association report due on Tuesday.

NOPA members, who represent more than 99% of all U.S. soybean processing capacity, were estimated to have crushed 218.52 million bushels last month, according to the average of estimates from 10 analysts surveyed by Reuters.

If that crush estimate is realized, the total would be down 2.9% from the December crush of 224.99 million bushels but up 9.1% from the January 2025 crush of 200.38 million bushels. It would also be the largest-ever January crush and the third largest for any month on record.

U.S. crush capacity has increased as some processors built new plants and others expanded existing ones amid soaring demand for vegetable oils to make biofuel. But harsh winter weather, including icy river shipping conditions and extreme cold, slowed processing at numerous plants last month.

Crush estimates for January ranged from 211.17 million to 226.00 million bushels, with a median of 219.50 million bushels.

The report is scheduled for release at 11 a.m. CST (1700 GMT) on Tuesday.

Soyoil stocks held by NOPA members as of January 31 were forecast to rise to a 20-month high of 1.71 billion pounds, based on estimates from seven analysts.

The total, if realized, would be up 4.0% from stocks of 1.64 billion pounds at the end of December and up 34.0% from year-earlier stocks of 1.27 billion pounds.

Oil stocks estimates ranged from 1.60 billion to 1.83 billion pounds, with a median of 1.71 billion pounds.

 

CROP SURVEY: US January Soybean Crush Seen at 218M Bushels

Projections are based on a survey of up to seven analysts conducted by Bloomberg News Feb. 12 to Feb. 13.

• Soybean crush seen 8.8% higher vs January of last year, and a decline of 3.1% vs a month ago
• Oil stocks at the end of last month seen at 1.668b lbs vs 1.274b a year earlier

 

Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean harvest reaches 21% of area, AgRural says

Brazilian farmers had harvested 21% of their 2025/26 soybean crop as of last Thursday, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday, up 5 percentage points from the previous week, but below the 24% reported a year earlier.

• The slowdown was mainly driven by heavier rainfall in some states, particularly in Mato Grosso, where sunny spells became rarer, AgRural said.
• Planting of Brazil’s second corn crop reached 31% of the estimated area, compared with 36% a year earlier, AgRural said.
• The first corn harvest hit 22%, lagging the 29% seen a year earlier.

 

Brazil’s soy harvest remains ahead of last year, but loses pace, Patria AgroNegocios says

Brazil’s soy harvest currently remains ahead of the same period last year but has lost pace over the past week due to rains, consultancy firm Patria AgroNegocios said on Friday.

• Farmers in Brazil have harvested 22.30% of the area planted with soy for the 2025/26 season, ahead of the 16.78% harvested this time last year, Patria AgroNegocios said.
• However, the harvest has lost pace amid “excessive rains” in Brazil’s center-north region, it said.
• “The percentage harvested still exceeds the five-year average, but the volume harvested this week was lower than in previous weeks,” the consultancy firm added.
• The five-year average for the period is 18.40%, according to Patria.
• Reports show lower than expected productivity in important soy-harvesting regions, such as the states of Mato Grosso, Parana, Goias, Tocantins and Mato Grosso do Sul, Patria AgroNegocios said.
• Brazil is the world’s largest producer of soy.

 

Russian wheat export prices up as shipping difficulties continue

Russian wheat export prices rose last week as weather conditions continued to seriously hamper shipments from the country’s southern ports, analysts said.

The price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in the second half of March was $233.0 a metric ton at the end of last week, up $2 compared to the previous week, said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.

Weather conditions significantly limited shipments from Russia’s southern ports in January. In February, difficult weather conditions continue: storms are hampering shipments in the Black Sea, while ice conditions are affecting shipments in the Sea of Azov, where the water is shallow.

Sovecon estimated the price for the same type of Russian wheat at $231-$235 a ton FOB, compared with $230-$233 at the end of the previous week.

The agency raised its estimate for February wheat exports by 0.2 million tons to 3.3 million tons. Rail carrier Rusagrotrans increased its own estimate by 0.125 million tons to 3.4 million tons last week. IKAR estimated February wheat exports at 3.1-3.2 million tons.

Russia’s 20 million ton grain export quota took effect on February 15. It will remain in effect until the end of the 2025/26 marketing season on June 30.

New-crop wheat conditions look favourable overall, Sovecon noted.

On Friday, IKAR announced an increase in its estimate for the 2026 wheat harvest to 91 million tons from 88 million tons, with export potential in the 2026/27 season at 47.5 million tons.

 

IKAR consultancy revises up Russia’s 2026 wheat crop to 91.0 mln tons

Dmitry Rylko, the head of the IKAR consultancy, said on Friday he saw Russia’s 2026 wheat crop at 91.0 million metric tons, up from an earlier forecast of 88 million metric tons.

He said he saw export potential for wheat in the 2026/27 season at 47.5 million metric tons.

Russia’s total grain crop in the 2026/27 season is expected to be 141.5 million metric tons, Rylko said, with an export potential of 63.5 million tons.

IKAR’s baseline estimate for wheat exports in the 2025/26 season, which began on July 1, 2025 and will end on June 30, 2026, stands at 46 million metric tons. That is compared with an export potential of 46.5 million tons.

According to IKAR, 62% of the estimated wheat export potential for the 2025/26 season has already been exported.

 

Russia Black Sea Port Hit in Drone Strike Before Peace Talks

Russia’s Black Sea coastal region came under heavy drone attack overnight, with damage reported to infrastructure at the Taman seaport and fuel tanks.

Air defenses battled to repel Ukrainian UAVs throughout the night in the assault on the Krasnodar region of southern Russia, Governor Veniamin Kondratyev said in a Telegram post early Sunday.

The strikes come as Russian and Ukrainian negotiators are expected to gather again in Geneva on Tuesday for peace talks.

The heaviest damage was reported in the settlement of Volna in the Temryuk district, where the Taman port is located. A fuel storage tank, warehouse facilities and port terminals were struck, according to the governor.

Ukraine’s General Staff confirmed the Taman port attack in a Telegram statement, while providing no details on the scope of the damage.

Emergency services deployed 126 personnel and 34 units of equipment to contain several fires. Two people were hospitalized and are receiving medical assistance, according to officials.

Taman is located on a peninsula across the Kerch Strait from Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014. The facility, which was previously attacked in December, handles oil, liquefied petroleum gas, grains, fertilizers and other cargo.

Elsewhere, the Russian coastal city of Sochi suffered one of its most prolonged and intense attacks, Mayor Andrey Proshunin said. Minor damage was reported there and in the village of Yurovka, near Anapa, according to authorities. Since the start of the day, 18 drones heading for Moscow were also downed, Interfax reported, citing Mayor Sergei Sobyanin.

In Ukraine, parts of the Black Sea port city of Odesa and the nearby town of Chornomorsk experienced water-supply and power outages after an overnight attack from Russia, according to the regional administration. The Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Sumy regions were also under fire overnight, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in a post on X.

Russia has for months repeatedly struck Ukrainian cities and damaged the country’s energy infrastructure with barrages of cruise and ballistic missiles, combined with swarms of explosive-laden drones, leaving hundreds of thousands of people without power and heating amid freezing temperatures. Ukraine retaliates with attacks on Russian refineries, oil terminals, ports and parts of the power grid in the southern areas and bordering regions.

Last week, Russia’s Belgorod region reported that more than 220,000 users were left without power after an attack. Local authorities are working to restore hot water supply to affected homes, but residential buildings connected to the centralized heating system will not be able to receive hot water until the end of the heating season, the local administration said on Saturday. The season typically ends in April or early May.

Russia and Ukraine are set to take part in US-led talks in Geneva starting on Tuesday, in pursuit of an end to Russia’s war, which will hit the four-year mark on Feb. 24.

The meeting follows two rounds of talks since New Year in the United Arab Emirates involving military officials from Ukraine and Russia as well as US envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law.

 

Malaysia Feb. 1-15 Palm Oil Exports Fall 11.24% M/m: Intertek

Malaysia’s palm oil exports fell 11.24% m/m during Feb. 1-15, according to Intertek Testing Services.

• Crude palm oil exports: 200,625 tons, 31.1% of total
• India led all destinations for total exports: 193,220 tons

 

CORN/CEPEA: Upward trend spreads as sellers limit supply

Cepea, 13 – The upward trend for corn prices, which has started earlier this month in some areas in São Paulo, has extended to other regions surveyed by Cepea in Brazil. Price rises are linked to the fact that producers are away from closing trades, since they are focused on crop activities, which limits the supply in the spot market.

Concerning the demand, purchasers claim to face difficulties to close deals. Besides the smaller supply, they prefer not to close trades at the high levels seen in recent days.

From February 5-12, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn prices moved up 1.8%, to close at BRL 67.67 per 60-kg bag on Feb. 12. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, in the same comparison, corn values increased 0.7% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 0.2% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers).

Although purchasers are facing difficulties to trade, new estimates released this week point to large crops in Brazil and in the world and high inventories in Brazil. In global terms, on the other hand, inventories are likely to be the smallest since 2014/15.

For the time being, Conab indicates that the national output may total 138 million tons, while the USDA estimates 131 million tons, downing 2% and 4% compared to the season before, respectively. In spite of the decrease, the volume is still considered high.

Comparing reports released in January and February, Conab points to a decrease for the second and the third crops, now projected at 109.26 and 2.48 million tons, against 110.46 and 2.51 million tons in the previous estimate. The projection for the first crop, in turn, rose to 26 million tons.

Conab also indicates that 94.57 million tons may be consumed in the domestic market, 4% more than in the season before. Exports for the 2025/26 season are estimated at 46.5 million tons. Therefore, ending stocks (January/27) are projected at 11.76 million tons, higher than the 1.88 million tons in 2024/25.

Worldwide, the USDA forecasts production at 1.29 billion tons, 5% more than in the previous season. As for the global consumption, the estimate is at 1.3 billion tons. Ending stocks may total 288.97 million tons, reducing the stock/consumption ratio to 22.5%, against 25.9% observed in the average over the last five crops.

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Stronger demand sustains prices and lifts premiums

Cepea, 13 – The demand for immediate delivery boosted trades the spot market, a scenario that sustained quotations and lifted export premiums. Producers, in turn, are unwilling to trade, focused on the irregular weather in part of Brazil. On the other hand, the valorization of Real against dollar (which reduces the competitiveness of the Brazilian product against the one from the US) and the perspective of increases in the stock/consumption ratio limited more significant price rises.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) upped 0.4% from Feb. 5-12, to close at BRL 120.38 per 60-kg bag on Feb. 12. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) rose 0.5% in the same comparison, closing at BRL 126.20 per 60-kg bag. On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices dropped 0.1% in the wholesale market (deals between processors), but moved up 0.3% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers). The US dollar closed at BRL 5.202 on February 12, for a decrease of 1% against that observed on Feb. 5.

 

India Relaxes Wheat Export Curbs to Appease Protesting Farmers

India permitted limited exports of wheat, easing restrictions imposed more than three years ago, to support farmers as bumper harvests improved domestic supplies and pushed prices lower.

The government cleared outbound sales of 2.5 million tons of the grain and additional shipments of 500,000 tons of wheat products, according to a statement by the food ministry. With local stockpiles high, prices easing and output expected to rise, allowing partial exports will help stabilize local prices and keep food security intact, it said on Friday.

As the world’s second-largest wheat producer, India’s return to overseas markets may help consumers in import-dependent nations in Asia, Africa and the Middle East.

The move comes at a time when farmers protest the country’s interim trade deal with the US, warning that it may harm local growers. Agriculture supports tens of millions of smallholders, and past liberalization efforts, most notably in 2020, triggered year-long protests, forcing the government to repeal three farm laws. That underscores the sensitivity of partially opening the $580 billion sector to greater foreign competition.

Expectations of a bumper wheat harvest after the strongest monsoon season in five years, which replenished reservoirs, had strengthened the case for relaxing curbs. The area allocated to the staple, which is generally harvested from mid-March, rose nearly 2% to 33.4 million hectares (82.5 million acres) as of Jan. 30. Production climbed to a record high of almost 118 million tons in 2024-25.

The world’s most populous nation had banned wheat exports in 2022 after local prices jumped following a heat wave that damaged yields across the country.

The availability of the grain with private entities surged by almost 75% from a year earlier to about 7.5 million tons in 2025-26, the statement said. Reserves held by the state-run Food Corp. of India are seen at around 18.2 million tons at the start of April this year, “thus ensuring that export permissions will not impact domestic food security requirements,” according to the statement.

The government also cleared additional shipments of 500,000 tons of sugar in the season ending in September, on top of 1.5 million tons allowed in November.

 

India Farm Group Close to Modi Wary of GM Products in US Deal

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s close ally in the farm sector has raised concerns about genetically modified byproducts entering India after the interim US trade deal, as resistance to the pact builds among domestic agricultural groups.

“We are not comfortable with the import of cheaper GM soybean oil and animal feed processed from GM corn,” Mohini Mishra, the head of the Bharatiya Kisan Sangh, told Bloomberg News. The BKS is a politically influential farmers’ group close to Modi’s ideological parent organization, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh.

The interim US trade deal marks one of the broadest reductions of India’s trade barriers in the politically-sensitive agriculture sector, and the lack of details is stoking anxiety among tens of millions of small farmers. On Thursday, thousands of farmers gathered across the country from Punjab to Tamil Nadu to demonstrate against the pact. That protest was spearheaded by a separate farmers’ group, the Samyukt Kisan Morcha.

India’s small farmers are a vital political constituency in the world’s most populous nation, and any threat of sustained nationwide protests evokes memories of 2020 and 2021, when growers paralyzed the capital and mounted the most significant challenge to Modi’s administration.

The government has repeatedly sought to dampen rural concerns. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has emphasized that sensitive agricultural products, including dairy and poultry, are excluded from negotiations, and has said there would be no concessions on imports of key GM crops.

While many critical details remain unclear, a joint statement issued last week showed that India agreed to cut or eliminate import duties on some US food and agricultural products, including distillers dried grains, red sorghum for animal feed and soybean oil, under the framework of an interim trade deal. The import of DDGS — mostly made from US GM corn — effectively allows genetically-modified byproduct into the market.

The BKS is standing by the Modi government for now, Mishra said, though he added that the group is awaiting further details.

 

 

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