Global Ag News For Jan 23.2026

TOP HEADLINES

Iraq Plans to Sell 500k Tons of Stockpiled Wheat: Grain Board

Iraq’s cabinet on Tuesday approved selling surplus wheat from the warehouses of its grain board at 415,000-420,000 Iraqi dinar (about $318) per ton, the country’s grain board director Haider Nouri Al-Garaawi said in a phone interview.

• Al-Garaawi said this year’s domestic harvest, which starts in April, is expected to be around 4m tons — less than recent years — due to water scarcity
  • Country currently has 4m tons in warehouses, including the 500k tons it plans to sell
  • NOTE: Last year, Iraq’s output exceed 5m tons
• Iraq’s production was enough to meet the needs of its government-subsidized food-ration program for the past three years, and there are no plans for imports for the program through year-end
• Al-Garaawi expects neighboring countries will submit purchase requests for Iraq wheat, especially Turkey and Iran, as the price suits them given the lower transportation costs, wheat’s quality and specifications that are similar to Russian wheat

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 2 in SRW, up 3 1/4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 1/2; Soybeans up 2 1/4; Soymeal unchanged; Soyoil up 0.41.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 1/2 in SRW, up 1 3/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/4; Soybeans up 8 1/2; Soymeal up $6.20; Soyoil up 1.58.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 10 1/2 in SRW, up 14 1/4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 16 3/4; Soybeans up 18 3/4; Soymeal down $3.20; Soyoil up 5.63.

Chinese Ag futures (MAR 26) Soybeans up 39 yuan; Soymeal up 10; Soyoil up 4; Palm oil up 2; Corn up 12 — Malaysian Palm is down 22.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 22 ringgit (-0.52%) at 4175.

 

There were changes in registrations (-11 Soybeans). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 120 Oats; 9 Corn; 446 Soybeans; 910 Soyoil; 163 Soymeal; 23 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 22 were: SRW Wheat up 3,109 contracts, HRW Wheat up 4,292, Corn up 22,807, Soybeans down 5,136, Soymeal up 3,192, Soyoil up 1,743.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 23 JANUARY 2026

1. NORTH AMERICA: A historic U.S. winter storm arriving this weekend will bring various impacts on the commodity markets, though winter wheat should be protected from cold risks by ample snow
2. SOUTH AMERICA: Excessive rainfall in Southeast Brazil/Minas Gerais will continue for the next 5-8 days, causing local floodings and landslides that may impact coffee harvest
3. EUROPE: An arctic cold airmass should be confined to North and Northeast Europe over the next 10 days, with stable, near-normal temperatures across key wheat areas of Western E.U.
4. BLACK SEA: Extreme cold conditions will retreat from wheat areas of Russia and NE Ukraine, as above normal temperatures should slowly spread in the region by mid next week
5. TROPICS: Tropical Cyclone Seventeen has emerged over the Timor Sea and will make landfall in northern Western Australia tomorrow, maintaining its current strength

 

Brazil: Central Brazil continues to see favorable rainfall for filling soybeans. South-central areas will stay drier, possibly through next week. That may include some significant areas of filling soybeans that could cut the top off of yields in some areas. Soil moisture remains low for the coming safrinha corn crop as well, which will be planted immediately after soybeans are harvested over the next few weeks.

Argentina: It has been very dry across the southern half of Argentina for quite some time. Soil moisture and crop conditions continue to fall which will have some effect on both corn and soybean production. A few spotty showers may develop across the south this weekend, but coverage is forecast to be low. Models have increased chances for spotty showers for more of the country next week, but the prospects are still low.

Northern Plains: A significant arctic cold front is moving through on Thursday and temperatures will be well below normal. Temperatures should moderate some next week, but will still be cold, reinforced by a couple of more clippers moving through.

Central/Southern Plains: A strong arctic cold front will sweep south on Friday which will bring in some extremely cold air. In addition, a system will form along the front and produce widespread wintry conditions across the region for Friday night and Saturday. Areas of heavy snow and ice are in the forecast. Some of that snow may protect areas of winter wheat from the harsh temperatures, but significant damage is looking likely.

Midwest: A significant arctic cold front will sweep through the region on Thursday, leading to some significantly cold air for Friday through Monday. A system will move across the south, but should clip the southern half of the region with some snow, which should be heavy near and south of I-70. Though the harshest temperatures will moderate next week, a few clippers should bring reinforcing shots of cold air and some more light snow. Exposed areas are at risk of winterkill on winter wheat.

Delta: Water levels on the Mississippi River continue to be low, though not dangerously so. Some beneficial showers moved across the region on Wednesday and a major winter storm will move through this weekend. That should help to boost water levels on the river and help to ease some of the growing drought in the region. That will be accompanied by a burst of arctic air and local rivers may have to worry about ice jams because of it next week.

The player sheet for 1/22 had funds: net buyers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 3,500 corn, buyers of 3,000 soybeans, buyers of 6,500 soymeal, and sellers of 2,500 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 192,350 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations for shipment in the 2025/26 marketing year.

BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is January 28.

 

PENDING TENDERS

WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers is January 27.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of four analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Friday for week ending Jan. 15.

Corn est. range 1,800k – 3,200k tons, with avg of 2,338k

Soybean est. range 600k – 2,800k tons, with avg of 1,522k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 5.2% to 25.739M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

Analysts were expecting 24.821 mln bbl

Plant production at 1.119m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.113m

 

Abiove Raises Brazil Soy Crushing Estimate to 61m tons in 2026

Brazil’s Vegetable Oils Industry Association (Abiove) now sees the country’s total soybean crushing at a record 61 million tons, a 0.8% increase from a November estimate.

That compares to 58.5m tons crushed in the prior year

Soymeal output seen at 47m tons, versus prior estimate of 46.6m tons

Soyoil production estimated at 12.3m tons, up from 12.2m tons in earlier forecast

 

Brazil 2025/26 Soybean Crop Seen At 179.5 Million Tons – Hedgepoint

BRAZIL 2025/26 SOYBEAN CROP SEEN AT 179.5 MILLION TNS, UP FROM PREVIOUS 178 MILLION TONS – HEDGEPOINT

BRAZIL SOYBEAN FARMERS REAPED 3% OF AREA THROUGH JAN 16 UP FROM 1% IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – HEDGEPOINT

 

Brazil traders see January soy shipments missing exporters’ outlook

Some Brazilian traders say soybean exports in January are likely to miss grain exporters’ association Anec’s forecast released on Tuesday, while Anec told Reuters it is reconsidering its estimate for 3.8 million metric tons of shipments this month.

In a statement, Anec said its monthly estimate, far above the 1.1 million tons shipped in January 2025, was based on shipping schedules. Actual volumes are likely to slow in late January, it added, so the total may be closer to 3 million tons.

Much of the soybeans that Brazil has exported this month were planted in 2024 and harvested in 2025, Anec said, adding that logistics bottlenecks may also affect January’s exports.

One trader, who spoke on condition of anonymity, estimated Brazil would only ship around 2 million metric tons of soybeans this month, suggesting talk of an early harvest was overblown.

China, the world’s largest soy importer and Brazil’s main buyer, has also stepped up purchases of U.S. soybeans since reaching a trade truce with Washington in October.

In the first three weeks of January, Brazil shipped 1.307 million tons of soy, compared with around 1 million in the same period of 2025, according to Brazilian government trade data.

“The market had prepared for quick shipments in anticipation of an early soybean harvest,” a second trader said. “But the harvest is proceeding at a normal pace, not ahead of schedule, so shipments are likely to be delayed until February.”

An estimated 3% of Brazil’s planted soy area had been harvested through last Friday, up from 1.1% last year, according to Hedgepoint Global, an agribusiness consultancy.

 

Brazil’s rain forecast to boost corn yields in key regions, LSEG says

Widespread rainfall that is expected over Brazil during the next two weeks is forecast to improve conditions for Brazil’s corn production, LSEG said on Thursday, after dry weather has stressed crops in some the nation’s key producing regions.

• Brazil logged precipitation deficits of 120-160 mm over the past 30 days, particularly in Mato Grosso, Goias, and Minas Gerais, LSEG said in a report.
• Warm, dry weather has limited potential yield gains, though first-crop conditions remain in good shape overall, LSEG added.
• Forecasts predict cooler temperatures and widespread above-average rain in the Central West and Southeast over the next two weeks.
• Southern regions may see drier weather into early February, which is not expected to immediately impact first-crop corn due to previous rainfall.
• Deep-layer soil moisture across the Central West, Northeast, Southeast, and South is at five-year lows, the report said.
• Lack of rainfall during wet season increases risk of drought for second-crop corn production, LSEG added.

 

Argentina’s grain harvesting slowed by rains in northern regions

Argentina’s soybean and corn harvesting for the 2025/26 season advanced slowly last week as rains hampered fields in northern production areas, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said on Thursday.

• Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of soybean oil and meal and the third-largest corn exporter.
• The grains exchange estimated Argentina’s soybean harvest area at 17.6 million hectares, down from 18.4 million compared with the 2024/25 season.
• The harvest area for corn is estimated at 7.8 million hectares versus the 7.1 million, compared with the previous season.
• Farmers have so far planted 96.2% of soybeans, a weekly growth of just 2.3 percentage points, and 93.1% of corn, 5.3 percentage points behind the prior season.
• “Adequate/Optimal” water conditions fell 7 percentage points, mainly due to lack of moisture in southern Cordoba and western Buenos Aires provinces, the grains exchange said.
• Separately, the Rosario Grains Exchange estimated that Argentina’s corn harvest will be 62 million tons and its soybean harvest will be 47 million tons in the 2025/26 season.

 

Moderate January weather bodes well for Argentina soy yield but drier days are ahead

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 ARGENTINA SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 47.5 [46.3–48.6] MILLION TONS, UP 2% FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Argentina soybean production is raised by 2% to 47.5 [46.3–48.6] million tons, as milder than expected weather conditions in January benefit crops that are currently moving through blooming phases while looking to enter the critical pod-fill stages soon. Our current estimate puts planted area at 16.7 million hectares, slightly above 16.4 million hectares reported by Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario, but below the Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires’ 17.6 million hectares. In January’s WASDE (released on 12 January), USDA placed Argentina soybean production at 48.5 million tons, unchanged from its previous projection in December.

The past two weeks featured split weather patterns to Argentina’s core. The northern half of the Pampas received mostly above average precipitation up to 120 mm in total, while its southern counterpart remained largely dry with rainfall deficits between 10-40 mm. Temperature patterns have been mixed, but overall cool conditions have been prevalent across key areas of the central and eastern Pampas, though occasional warm conditions were also seen especially in some southern regions. Despite the recent volatile weather, soil moisture levels remain decent across most top producing areas, including western Córdoba, northern Buenos Aires and southern Santa Fe. Initially projected hot and dry conditions for January are proving milder than anticipated, suggesting a better than expected national yield outlook, though rapidly declining soil moisture levels in some southern areas such as southern Buenos Aires and La Pampa do warrant attention. Vegetation densities derived from satellite imagery are mostly hovering around/slightly above historical median levels across the Pampas, conforming well with the recent weather patterns, but declines are seen in some southern areas, warranting close monitoring.

 

Higher area raises Argentina corn production, but drought risks increase

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 ARGENTINA CORN PRODUCTION: 57.9 [50.8–62.9] MILLION TONS, UP 6% FROM LAST UPDATE

Increases in sown area have boosted Argentina’s 2025/26 corn production estimate to 57.9 million tons, but low rainfall and declining soil moisture could limit yields, especially for late-planted corn.

Since January, the Pampas regions have experienced ongoing dry weather, with precipitation deficits between 50 and 70 mm. Mild temperatures and previously high soil moisture have helped prevent significant damage to crops so far, but good rain is needed to improve yields, especially in Buenos Aires, southern Cordoba, southern Santa Fe, and northern La Pampa. Weather forecasts indicate that hot, dry conditions will continue across the southern half of the Pampas over the next two weeks, with the driest area in Buenos Aires, increasing drought concerns. Western and northern parts of corn areas may see wetter and cooler weather, including Cordoba and Santa Fe. The long-term weather forecast for February indicates a strong likelihood of cool and dry conditions in Argentina, which deserves attention.

Recent vegetation densities (NDVIs) have remained close to the long-term median. However, if the warm and dry spell persists, crop conditions—particularly for late-planted corn—could decline rapidly.

 

Argentina wheat production up on better than expected late season weather

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 ARGENTINA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 27.1 [26.5–27.8] MILLION TONS, UP 9% FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Argentina wheat production is increased by 9% to 27.1 [26.5–27.8] million tons, supported by better than initially anticipated late season weather, healthy soil moisture conditions during the prime growth period, and rapid harvest progress. In January’s WASDE (released on 12 January) USDA placed Argentina wheat production at 27.5 million tons, up from its previous estimate of 24 million tons in December. Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires and Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario currently forecast production at 27.8 and 27.7 million tons, respectively.

 

Healthy soil moisture conditions bode well for Paraguay soybean production

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 PARAGUAY SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 11.3 [10.7–11.9] MILLION TONS, UP 3% FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Paraguay soybean production is increased by 3% to 11.3 [10.7–11.9] million tons, as recent rains and high soil moisture across core producing areas in the southeastern Oriental Region support positive yield prospects, albeit localized excessive moisture remains a concern. Our median production estimate is slightly above the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 11.0 million tons, which assumes national level area and yield at 3.8 million hectares and 2.89 tons per hectare (tph), respectively (vs. LSEG Agriculture Research’s 3.71 million hectares and 3.04 tph, respectively).

 

Sovecon says it might cut Russian wheat crop forecasts if cold spell persists

Sovecon consultancy said on Thursday it could cut Russia’s wheat crop forecast for this year from the current 83.8 million metric tons if the current cold spell across the country persists for a week or longer.

“Sovecon is closely monitoring an abnormal cold pattern in Russia. A downward revision cannot be ruled out if temperatures of minus 20 Celsius to minus 25 degrees Celsius persist for a week or longer,” the consultancy said.

 

India Scraps More South American Soy Oil as Rupee Slumps

India, the world’s largest vegetable oil buyer, canceled more soybean oil shipments from South America as the rupee’s slump to a record low widened the price gap between local and imported oil.

About 35,000 to 40,000 tons of the commodity from Brazil and Argentina, booked for delivery in February and the April-July period, have been scrapped, with total cancellations likely to exceed 50,000 tons, said Aashish Acharya, vice president at Patanjali Foods Ltd., one of India’s top vegetable oil buyers. Several other traders contacted by Bloomberg confirmed the action.

The latest development comes after Indian buyers backed out of more than 100,000 tons of Argentinian deals in December, equivalent to roughly 20% of what the country imports in a month. India relies on overseas purchases for nearly 60% of its edible oil consumption.

A weaker rupee and higher global prices have pushed up South American soy oil to trade at $25 to $30 a ton higher than local supplies, Acharya said in an interview. That disparity has made imports more expensive and uneconomical, prompting buyers to cash out, and instead look at the tropical oil which has been trading at attractive discounts, he said.

Soy oil’s premium over palm has doubled from the start of the year to around $146 a ton, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Supplies of South American soybean oil have tightened as China ramped up purchases of soybeans, reducing their availability for crushing into oil. Nearby prices for Argentinian soy oil are at the highest in more than a year, according to Commodity3 data.

Soy oil in Chicago have also climbed, but Indian prices didn’t follow as the rupee weakened to a record low against the dollar, said Mayur Toshniwal, president and head of trading at Emami Agrotech Ltd., an Indian vegetable oil processor and biodiesel maker. That mismatch may lead to more cancellations of soy oil deals and boost palm oil imports, he said.

Palm oil futures in Kuala Lumpur have gained just 2.6% so far this year, trading at 4,156 ringgit a ton as of 4:12 p.m. local time. In contrast, soy oil has surged 11%. in Chicago during the same period.

 

Corn, Biofuel Lobbies Torch E15 Council as ‘Travesty’

Corn growers and biofuel industry lobbies lashed out Thursday at lawmakers’ plans to establish an E15 council, with some groups saying it will put American farmers at a disadvantage.

Those comments came after House lawmakers said they would remove legislation for year-round E15 sales from a funding measure and would instead establish an E-15 Rural Domestic Energy Council to submit legislative proposals to Congress no later than Feb. 15, with the goal of considering legislation no later than Feb. 25.

It was a compromise after Midwestern lawmakers demanded the latest government funding package include the E15 provision.

“Congress picked foreign refiners over American farmers and drivers today. What a travesty,” said Emily Skor, CEO of Growth Energy, a trade association for the biofuel industry, in a statement.

The National Corn Growers Association President Jed Bower lambasted the idea as a “process-ridden task force that kicks the can down the road once again,” in a statement.

“Corn growers are disgusted, disappointed and disillusioned that after spending years of calling for passage of E15, Congress has again punted, and it has done so in a spectacularly weak and offensive way,” he said.

“Bizarrely, members of Congress are now planning to establish a rural energy council to explore this legislation as if we are in the beginning stages of discussing E15. We already have a bill. We already have an agreement with the petroleum industry after months of negotiation,” Bower added.

Renewable Fuels Association President and CEO Geoff Cooper also said it amounted to “kicking the can” and added that Congress shouldn’t have rejected legislation supported by a wide range of groups, from farmers to many oil refiners.

“They shouldn’t let a handful of mid-sized oil refiners, including foreign-owned companies, blow the whole thing up,” Cooper said.

An outside lobbying firm filed on Tuesday a fourth-quarter disclosure for lobbying on behalf of PBF Holding Company LLC, a petroleum refining and logistics company based in New Jersey, saying that it had lobbied “in opposition to allowing E15 year-round without corresponding relief from compliance costs for merchant refineries.”

Some industry groups have written letters to lawmakers and the Trump administration in recent weeks about the issue.

Growth Energy, which spent $2.5 million on federal lobbying last year, wrote a letter this month to congressional leaders urging passage of legislation to allow for year-round sales of E15.

Dozens of other corporations and industry groups disclosed lobbying on E15 matters last year, disclosures show. Some of those made big investments in K Street.

Koch Government Affairs said in its fourth-quarter federal lobbying filing that it had lobbied on issues related to renewable fuel standards and “E15 waiver.”

The American Petroleum Institute disclosed in a report covering the fourth quarter of last year that it was working on “draft legislation related to E15 and Small Refinery Waivers.”

 

US RINS WEEKLY REPORT : RINs Prices Rise Driven by Bullish Soybean Oil Futures

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

D4, D5, and D6 RINs enter the third week of the new year consolidating around 124.25, 123.50 and 115.75 cents per gallon. The beginning of 2026 has seen RINs swap prices continue their significant bullish momentum, a symptom if not a consequence of the recent geopolitical turbulence. Moreover, a key factor responsible for the trajectory of RINs swap prices is that of the Bean Oil- Heating Oil (BOHO) spread.

Indeed, D4 RINs prices are highly correlated with the BOHO spread due to the nature of RINs being both a subsidy and a tax. Nevertheless, in the past two days D4 RINs prices have decoupled from the BOHO spread via a marginal decrease. Between January 16 and January 21 BOHO prices decreased from 1.7214 cents per gallon to 1.6978 dollars per gallon. While such a deviation occurs from time to time, this development is something to watch closely. Dry weather and drought like conditions continue to plague parts of the Midwest, facilitating a significant surge in soybean oil prices.

On January 2, 2026 soybean oil prices settled at 48.87 cents per gallon. Throughout the first three weeks of the new year soybean oil prices have increased spiking to a yearly high of 54.05 cents per gallon on January 21st. While the Midwest contends with drought issues, negotiations continue to develop between  U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng regarding a US-China soybean purchase commitment. It should be noted that the aforementioned purchase commitment is currently marked at 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans. Additionally, weather data indicates that heavy rains in Northern Brazil have delayed soybean harvest. Nevertheless, it appears that this pause will be relatively short and not significantly affect the greater Brazilian soybean crop.

 

LIVESTOCK: US Red Meat Production Rose 6.3% Y/y in December

Commercial beef and pork production rose to 4.83b pounds in Dec., according to the USDA’s monthly livestock slaughter report.

• Beef production up 4.5% y/y to 2.3b pounds
• Dec. cattle slaughter totaled 2.58m head, a 1.5% increase from a year ago

• Avg live weight rose by 32 pounds from last year to 1,463 pounds

• Pork production up 8% y/y to 2.52b pounds
• Hog slaughter increased 7.2% y/y to 11,524m head

• Avg live weight was 293 pounds vs 291 pounds a year ago

 

ELEVATED COLD RISKS FOR DORMANT WHEAT IN THE U.S. TO PERSIST THROUGH FEBRUARY

What to Watch:

• Cold risks are evident for the HRW wheat in Central U.S. in the forecast for February, including insufficient snow cover
• There is potential for high precipitation and soil moisture improvement in parts of Midwest and Eastern U.S.
• Low confidence in temperature outlook for all eastern regions

 

 

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