Written Commentary
CRUDE OIL
March Crude Oil fell back sharply early Thursday after reaching its highest level since September 29 on Wednesday after President Trump appeared to step back from recent threats against Iran, saying he had been assured that government would stop killing protesters. As recently as Wednesday, there were reports that the US was mulling over several options and that some sort of strike was imminent. A US official said that the United States was withdrawing some personnel from military bases in the Middle East after a senior Iranian official warned that it would hit American bases in the region if Washington strikes. The setback in crude price overnight came after the market had climbed $6.30 (11%) in five sessions on concerns a US could threaten supplies out of Iran and from the Persian Gulf in general. Iran exports around 3.3-million barrels of oil per day despite sanctions and is OPEC’s fourth-largest producer.
PRODUCTS
Like crude oil, the products fell off sharply early Thursday after President Trump said he had been assured that the Iranian government would stop killing protesters. Yesterday’s EIA report was bearish for gasoline.
NATURAL GAS
March Natural Gas was near unchanged early Thursday following a selloff on Wednesday that left it within the vicinity of last Friday’s low. The 6-10 and 8-14 day weather forecasts offer mostly below normal temperatures across the northern half of the US, which is a change from the recent mild weather trend and offers a chance of normal gas consumption for a change.
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