Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Mostly higher trade across the Ag space overnight despite a healthy pullback in energy prices. Spot crude oil is down $2.50 near $59.50 per barrel on apparent easing of tensions in Iran. Bean oil is softer in sympathy with lower energy prices. Export sales later this AM, NOPA crush out at 11 AM CST while Conab will also update their production forecasts for Brazil. Weather in SA remains mostly favorable. Good rains across Central Brazil this week will aid crop development. Favorable conditions across central and northern Argentina. Spotty showers will provide limited drought relief in the south. Cooler than normal temperatures across the central and northern US Midwest thru the end of January. Limited rainfall for winter wheat areas for the next week to 10 days. The US $$ is slightly higher. US stock indices steady to higher.
Corn:
Mch-26 is up $.02 ½ holding close to yesterday’s high of $4.25. The market seems to have run out of sellers below $4.20 earlier this week. The Rosario GE raised their Argentine production forecast 1 mmt to a record 62 mmt, well above the USDA forecast of 53 mmt. Analysts expect Conab will bump up their production forecast 1 mmt to 140 mmt, well above USDA’s 131 mmt est. Export sales are expected land between 25-55 mil. bu. Record ethanol production yesterday raises hopes for higher domestic usage.
Soybeans:
Inside trade for Mch-26 beans as it holds near $10.44 up $.01. Mch-26 meal is up $2 at $294. Mch-26 oil is down 40 near 50.60. NOPA crush at 11 AM CST is expected to show NOPA members processed nearly 225 mil. bu. in Dec-25 vs. 206.6 in Dec-24 and if realized would be the 2nd highest figure ever reported. Bean oil stocks are expected to rise 11.4% from Nov-25 to 1.686 bil. lbs. Analysts expect Conab will bump up their production forecast 2 mmt to 179 mmt, just above USDA’s 178 mmt est. Export sales are expected range between 30-65 mil. bu. for beans, 0-25k tons of oil and 150-400k tons of meal. The Rosario GE held their Argentine production forecast at 47 mmt, just below the USDA forecast of 48.5 mmt. Increased production forecasts from SA will make reaching the lowered USDA export forecast of 1.575 bil. bu. challenging.
Wheat:
Prices are steady to $.05 higher across the 3 classes. Mch-26 CGO has recovered to about the midpoint of Monday’s range. Overall holding in a $5.00-$5.25 range. Mch-26 KC is bumping up against MA resistance near $5.28. The Rosario GE held their Argentine production forecast at 27.7 mmt, well above the USDA forecast of 24 mmt. Export sales are expected to range between 5-15 mil. bu.
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