Written Commentary
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold: Gold rose past $4,500 per ounce on Wednesday to a fresh record, driven by expectations of further easing out of the Fed and rising geopolitical tensions. US economic growth remained solid in the third quarter, with GDP expanding at a faster pace than in the prior period, although labor market data pointed to continued but gradually moderating job creation. Markets are still pricing in two rate cuts in 2026 as inflation cools and employment conditions appear to soften as policymakers remain divided over whether further rate cuts are necessary in the midst of higher inflation. Meanwhile, tensions involving Venezuela, where the US has quarantined oil tankers, have lifted safe-haven demand and increased geopolitical risk across commodity markets.
Markets will also monitor any news regarding the Supreme Court’s ruling on President Trump’s sweeping tariffs, as the president recently signaled that he expects an unfavorable ruling. President Trump has continuously reiterated that the effects of appealing the tariffs could be disastrous for the economy, signaling that he could be expecting an unfavorable ruling towards his trade policies. Trump did suggest that the tariffs could stay but would require a longer implementation process, while calling the ruling the greatest threat to national security in history.
Silver: Silver prices rose above $72, to reach a fresh record high. Retail investors have increasingly been more attracted to the metal as an alternative investment tool to gold. Industrial demand for silver is expected to remain robust through 2030 as growth in solar energy, electric vehicles, data centers, and artificial intelligence drives consumption, the Silver Institute noted in a recent research report. Prices have been further supported by persistently tight supply and falling global inventories, resulting in a supply-demand deficit that is expected to continue over the coming years.
Platinum: Platinum is up 0.8% at $2,307.
BASE METALS
Copper: Copper prices extended gains to hit all-time highs on Wednesday as robust US economic growth boosted demand prospects for the metal, with supply constraints further bolstering prices. Benchmark three-month copper on the LME rose 1.3% to $12,220 earlier in the morning. On the supply side, China’s top copper smelters will cut production by over 10% in 2026 to counter overcapacity that has led to increasingly distorted copper concentrate processing fees, according to a Chinese market information provider last month. Mine supply constraints and structurally strong demand growth for copper is expected to remain strong in 2025. Underlying fundamentals offer the metal a solid floor for prices as supply-side challenges continue and face robust demand due to the technology sector, leading the copper market to be in an expected supply deficit in 2026.
Flows to COMEX warehouses continued due to higher prices in the US, leaving tighter supply elsewhere around the globe. The US excluded refined copper from the 50% import tariffs that came into force in August but kept it under review, which has led to expectations that US tariffs on copper will be announced in mid-2026. That dynamic has lent continued support to LME -COMEX arbitrage, as US inventories of copper approach 500,000 tons. As long as US prices remain elevated due to tariff expectations, flows into the US are expected, keeping LME-COMEX arbitrage trade going.
Zinc: Zinc was up 1%.
Aluminum: Aluminum added 0.9%. Australia’s South32 said it would place the Mozal aluminum smelter in Mozambique under care and maintenance by March after failing to secure a power deal with the government. Morgan Stanley expects aluminum prices to reach $3,250 per ton by the second quarter of 2026 as demand outpaces supply.
Tin: Tin rose 1.2%.
Lead: Lead added 0.8%.
Nickel: Nickel gained, up 0.7% at $15,845.
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