Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.02-$.03 lower largely on spillover pressure from the soy complex. Spreads were steady to slightly easier. Mch-26 fell below its 100 day MA and to a new low for the month however held support above the November low of $4.34 1/2. Yesterday’s CFTC report showed MM’s sold 49k contracts the week ended Nov. 25th, flipping their position to net short 11k contracts. EU corn imports for 25/26 as of Dec. 14th at 7.5 mmt are down 20% from YA. Many are questioning the USDA domestic usage figures. Feed usage at 6.10 bil. is up 11.6% from YA while US cattle on feed continue to run 1-2% below YA. Usage for ethanol production may also have trouble holding up at 5.60 bil. bu. as sorghum usage remains historically high. Still holding in its $4.35-$4.55 range but just barely.
SOYBEANS
Prices were lower across the complex with beans $.09-$.10 lower, meal was steady to down $1 while oil has plunged just over $.01 lbs. Bean spreads finished steady to slightly better while product spreads weakened. Jan-26 beans finally filled the gap from late Oct-26 while also slicing thru its 100 day MA. Next support is near $10.20. Jan-26 meal has had a 4th consecutive session of higher highs. Jan-26 oil plunged to a 6 month low pressured by lower energy prices, higher NOPA stocks along with continued delays and uncertainty regarding RVO’s and SRE. Spot board crush margins slipped $.05 ½ to $1.34 ½ bu. with bean oil PV dipping to 44.4%. China’s SinoGrain so far has auctioned off 323k mt of soybeans this week, about 63% of the intended volume. This is their 2nd recent auction as they intend to free up roughly 4 mmt of storage space for US bean imports. Export sales data thru Nov. 20th plus announced sales so far place Chinese purchases at around 4.5 mmt. Total sales are believed to be closer to 7-7.5 mmt with some smaller unannounced sales and perhaps some of the announced sales to unknown. US sales to China will likely come to a screeching halt once they hit 12 mmt as Brazilian prices are $.50 bu. under US offers for Jan shipment while widening out to near 80 cents by March. EU soybean imports as of Dec 14th at 5.6 mmt are down 14% from YA. Meal imports at 8.3 mmt are down 10%. Yesterday’s CFTC report showed in the week ended Nov. 25th MM’s were net sellers of 15k contracts of soybeans, nearly 11k bean oil while buying 4k soybean meal.
WHEAT
Prices are $.04-$.011 lower across the 3 classes today. CGO was the downside leader leading however new contract lows for CGO and MIAX futures. Next support for Mch-26 CGO is at the fall low on the weekly chart at $4.92 ¼. Mch-26 CGO spread over corn futures dipped to $.73 bu., the lowest since Sept-23 for the spot contracts. Rumors that China may washed out their announced purchase of US wheat from back in Nov-25 also fueled today’s selloff. Hopes for peace in Ukraine and growing global production have speculators pouring back into the short side of the market. Jordan reportedly passed on making any purchase in their recent 120k mt tender. EU soft wheat exports as of Dec. 14th at 10.5 mmt are down 3% from YA. For the week ended Nov. 20th MM’s were net sellers of 5k contracts of CGO futures, 2k in KC, while buying just over 4,500 contracts in MIAX.
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