Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
There was a steady/higher start for beans following a weekend of beneficial rains in much of Brazil. Last week’s close at 1 1/2 month lows keeps the edge with the bear camp, although a deeper pullback into support may spark some technical buying.
SOYBEAN MEAL
The pullback in March soymeal paused late last week as prices found buying support at the 200-day moving average. Bitter cold across the Midwest has reportedly caused some slowdowns at crushing plants and will likely affect overall crush rates during December. However, temperatures are expected to moderate later this week, and a warm-up is forecast to continue until the end of the year. Another major factor for soymeal is the major storms impacting the Pacific Northwest Coast.
CORN
March corn closed below its recent range on Friday, giving the bears the edge in the near term. There was little fresh news over the weekend, but Brazil did see beneficial rains across much of the crop area.
WHEAT
Chicago wheat is extending its weakness this morning on a lack of fresh bullish news. Rumors that China was buying Argentine wheat last week were true, and the 1st cargo in decades is set to depart. Argentina’s feed wheat is the cheapest in the world.
CATTLE
The cattle complex closed lower on Friday, but prices ended the week strong, partly due to winter weather concerns. Bitter cold below-zero temperatures were seen in much of the Midwest and Plains over the weekend, but after this week, temperatures will begin a significant warming trend, and cattle stress concerns should subside.
HOGS
There was strong action in the hogs last week on an improved technical outlook and bullish seasonals. Open interest continues to drop in the nearby months, rising in the deferreds. Thursday’s technical breakout to the upside on strong trading volume was a bullish development and points to further upside.
MILK CLASS III
January Class III milk finished last week with a sizable gain after reaching a 4-week high on Friday.
ENERGIES
February Crude Oil is pressing against last week’s lows early Monday, as the market weighed the interruptions of Venezuelan oil exports against what is expected to be an otherwise ample global supply as well as a slight improvement in the chance of peace in Ukraine over the weekend.
February Natural Gas extended last week’s selloff slightly early Monday and was in the vicinity of the October low. Warmer weather is coming later this week to the US, with mid-week temperatures rising to the 60s and lower to a few middle 70s in the central and southern Plains, according to World Weather Inc.
DOLLAR INDEX
The USD index edged lower in a week filled with foreign central bank meetings and delayed US data, including November nonfarm payrolls data on Tuesday and inflation data on Thursday. Last
COCOA
March Cocoa was lower early Monday after Ivory Coast port arrivals showed an improvement over the previous week, which eased concerns that the West African main crop was struggling.
COFFEE
March NY Coffee was under pressure early Monday, falling to its lowest level since November 21, the day it put in a spike low in the wake of the lifting of the tariffs on Brazilian imports.
COTTON
March Cotton was higher early Monday and was approaching to the upper end of last week’s range. The market may be drawing some support in anticipation of the Export Sales update.
SUGAR
March Cotton was higher early Monday and was approaching to the upper end of last week’s range. The market may be drawing some support in anticipation of the Export Sales update later this morning.
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold prices are nearly 1% higher, as a weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions provided support, while speculation over the trajectory of US interest rates remains.
Silver futures are 3% higher at $63.97. Silver fundamentals have been supportive of prices as expectations that industrial demand for silver will pick up in the coming years. Sectors including solar energy, EV’s, data centers, and artificial intelligence will drive industrial demand higher through 2030, the Silver Institute industry association recently noted in a research report.
Copper prices are higher as some traders rolled forward positions ahead of a contract expiry this week, helping the market to set aside weak data and worries about the property sector in top consumer China for now.
EQUITIES
The index are higher as markets await a week that will bring delayed job and inflation data that will help shape interest rate expectations for 2026. In premarket trading, megacaps were mixed.
INTEREST RATES
Yields are lower across the curve although the 10- and 30-year yield have both edged above last week’s pre-meeting level, as speculation over the amount of easing from the Fed in 2026 has grown following the meeting.
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