Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. Stocks are lower led by NASDAQ and Oracle. USD is lower. Crude is lower with IEA suggesting large supply overhang. Gold, silver and copper are higher. US Fed cut rates but signal a pause in future cuts. US Fed to increase balance sheet by buying Treasury securities. China vows to stabilize property issues as crisis worsens. US cold but 2nd week warmer with more snow.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 10.90. Dalain soybean and soymeal futures were higher. Soybean futures may have found support from new China sales and some correction into month end and year end. China showing new interest in US, Brazil and Argentina soybeans. China sold 397 mt soybeans from Reserve. US Oct soybean crush is est at a record 234.2 mil bu vs 215.8 ly. Soyoil stocks 1,717 mil lbs vs 1,592 ly. Germany could allow rapeseed for biofuel feedstock. Brazil rains. Arg dry but could see rains Dec 20. Trade est Nov 12 soybean export sales 600-1,400 mt
CORN
CH is near 4.46. Dalian corn futured at 2 week low. Brazil weather is favorable. CH supported by US export program. Resistance is from potential higher SA crops and talk of higher global feedgrain and feed wheat supplies. US weekly ethanol production up vs ly. Stocks down from ly. Margins better. Trade est Nov 12 corn export sales 800-2,000 mt.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.29. KWH is near 5.23. MWH is near 5.77. World wheat buyers on sideline but need to figure out where to buy, discounted Argentina and Black Sea prices versus higher Australia, Canada and EU supplies versus US. US spring wheat could see good buying for protein. Trade est Nov 12 wheat export sales 200-600 mt.
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