Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
USDA report day. Grains are mixed. Stocks are slightly higher. USD is lower. Crude is higher. Gold and silver are higher. Central Bank is expected to lower rates. Trade will be watching the Supreme Court decision on Trump tariffs. China, Japan and now S Korea relations worsen as China fighter jet radars pointed toward Japan jets. China will increase buying cheaper Saudi Arabia crude oil.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 10.92. SF is back below 11.00. USDA announced 512 mmt soybean to China and China will auction soybean from reserve to make room for US and Argentina imports. Talk that China may delay buying rest of 12 mmt US soybeans that was talked about until 2026 is negative. Trade est US 25/26 soybean carryout at 302 mil bu vs USDA 290. Range is 250-385. Some est carryout closer to 470 due to lower exports. One crop watcher est Brazil crop at 176 mmt vs USDA 175 and Argentina 49 vs USDA 48.5.
CORN
CH is near 4.45. CH resistance 4.50. Support 4.40. Dalian corn futured were sharply lower. Brazil weather is favorable. Ukraine harvest running behind normal. Higher Black Sea freight due to war risk as peace talks break down weighs on Ukraine export price. Trade estimates US 25/26 corn carryout at 2,124 mil bu vs USDA 2,154. Range is 1,970-2,229. Some est carryout closer to 2,320 due to lower domestic use. US to announce soon 12 billion dollar US farm aid to offset lower prices and tariffs. Key is will aid slow or increase farmer cash sales. One crop watcher est Brazil crop at 138 mmt vs USDA 131 and Argentina 54 mmt vs USDA 53. US soybean export commit is near.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.37. KWH is near 5.32. MWH is near 5.74. Trade estimates US 25/26 wheat carryout at 890 mil bu vs USDA 901. Range is 846-901. Some est carryout closer to 904. Trade estimates World 25/26 wheat carryout at 272.7 mmt vs USDA 271.4 and 261.4 ly. Range is 271-275.
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