Brazil & India Shape Sugar Supply Outlook

SUGAR

Sugar bulls may find mild relief that the market held steady despite bearish news. Indian producers are urging the government to double 2025/26 export quotas to 2 million tons, while Czarnikow raised India’s output forecast to 32.8 million tons and the global surplus to 8.7 million. Brazil’s October exports rose 12% to 4.2 million tons. On the bullish side, Brazil is diverting more cane to ethanol, though both Brazil and India are exploring alternative ethanol feedstocks to avoid high domestic sugar prices—possibly slowing India’s export decisions.

COFFEE

March Coffee extended its selloff overnight but found support near the 50% retracement of the rally from the October 28 low. Reuters reported that about 150,000 bags of Brazilian arabica are being shipped to ICE warehouses in Europe, confirmed by rising pending stocks in Antwerp. ICE certified stocks fell 11,567 bags to 418,203, the lowest since March, while pending review rose to 12,886. Brazil’s October exports fell 17% year over year to 233,097 metric tons amid U.S. tariffs, while Vietnam’s exports rose 13.4% for January–October. Typhoon Kalmaegi brought heavy rains to northern Vietnam’s Central Highlands, slowing harvests, though southern areas were spared. Light rain was also reported across key Brazilian coffee regions. The market is watching the U.S. Supreme Court’s review of tariff legality, with sentiment leaning toward skepticism of Trump’s authority, though opinions remain speculative.

COCOA

March Cocoa traded up to the 9-day moving average overnight but failed to push through it. The market is feeling pressure this week on concerns about demand after Barry Callebaut said that it expected sales of cocoa products to decline by a mid-single-digit percentage in its coming financial year due to high prices. World Weather Inc say Ivory Coast rainfall through Sunday will be greater than what has occurred recently, with scattered to occasionally numerous showers and thunderstorms most days. Similar conditions are expected for in Ghana and Cameroon. Shower activity will diminish next week. Extending the rainy season should be good for crop development as long is it isn’t too wet. The trade will be looking to the weekly Ivory Coast arrivals report Sunday or Monday to see  if they post another strong week. ICE stocks fell 13,040 bags yesterday to 1.794 million, the lowest since March 26.

COTTON

December Cotton has fallen back to late-October levels, showing little support from hopes the Supreme Court will strike down Trump’s tariffs. The selloff in soybeans and a weaker stock market are weighing on sentiment, as fading optimism about China’s soybean demand also dampens cotton sales outlooks. The USDA’s November 14 crop report will be its first since the shutdown, with strong Texas yields expected but possible losses from late-summer dryness in the Delta and Southeast. As of late September, 47% of the U.S. crop was rated good/excellent, up from 32% a year ago. The USDA’s last estimate put 2025/26 U.S. production at 13.22 million bales, down from 14.41 million in 2024/25, with ending stocks at 3.6 million. Export sales had reached just 36% of forecasts versus a five-year average of 53%, suggesting possible downward revisions unless sales improve.

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