Written Commentary
Precious Metals
Gold prices rose above $4,000 as a weaker dollar led to better buying conditions. The government shutdown has entered its 37th day, making it the longest-ever shutdown in history. The shutdown has led markets to rely on private figures to gauge the health of the US economy to judge if the Fed will cut rates in December. Fresh data from the World Gold Council showed global gold ETFs saw inflows reach five months in a row, attracting $8.2 billion during October and pushing their total AUM 6% higher to another month-end peak of $503, while holdings climbed 1% month-over-month to 3,893 tons. Gold market trading volumes continue to rise, reaching an all-time high of $561 billion per day in October, a 45% increase over September.
Yesterday’s ADP private nonfarm payroll data for October came in well above expectations at 42,000 new jobs, while last month’s figure was revised slightly higher from -32,000 to -29,000. However, Challenger, Gray, and Christmas’s job cuts report published early this morning showed that US employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October. Seasonal hiring plans were the lowest since the firm started collecting hiring plans data in 2012. Through October, employers have announced 1,099,500 job cuts, the highest year-to-date total since the pandemic, and up 44% from the 761,358 cuts announced in all of 2024. So far this year, the government announced the most layoffs at 307,638, followed by tech at 141,159.
Yesterday’s ISM services PMI showed the strongest expansion in the services sector since February, as business activity and new orders both rebounded in activity. On the employment side, the index continued to show contraction in employment, although there were no indications of widespread layoffs. The prices index increased to 70 in October from 69.4 in September. The prices index has averaged a reading of 60.06 from 1997 until 2025. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan recently said that she finds it difficult to cut rates in December given the recent trend in services price inflation, which tends to be stickier than other sectors. Fed Funds futures are showing a 67% chance of a rate cut from the Fed in December.
Despite recent consolidation, gold prices remain well-supported as global demand hit a record high last quarter. Strong investment flows, robust bar and coin buying in India and China, and continued central bank purchases, including Brazil’s first in over four years, reinforce a solid floor for the yellow metal.
Silver: Silver edged higher, with December US futures breaking above $48.
Platinum: Platinum rose 0.30% to $1,555.
Base Metals
Copper: Copper prices are mixed; LME copper rose 0.6% to $10,758 earlier in the morning, while US prices held below $5.00. LME prices continue to find resistance at the 21-day moving average of $10,786.
Copper demand in China continues to disappoint, with the Yangshan copper premium falling to $35 a ton, down from $58 in late September and over $100 in May, signaling weak appetite for imported copper. This coincides with softer-than-expected PMI data: the RatingDog General Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.6 in October, missing forecasts and showing declines across most subcomponents except employment. The survey was conducted amid geopolitical tensions, including tariff threats from President Trump, which may have weighed on sentiment. Meanwhile, China’s official PMI fell to 49.0, marking a sixth month low and the seventh consecutive contraction in factory activity.
On the supply side, Chile’s Codelco revised its 2025 output forecast lower, though it remains above 2024 levels. Chile’s national copper output fell 4.5% year-over-year in September, and major producers like Glencore, Anglo American, and Freeport-McMoRan all reported lower production or sales, adding to supply-side uncertainty.
Zinc: Zinc gained 0.8% to $3,068.
Aluminum: Aluminum was up 0.7% at $2,871. Aluminum has been helped by expectations of improved demand and limited output growth in China, the world’s largest producer. Investors have built up record long positions, with a collective net long position above 130,000 contracts, the first time since early 2022. Outright long positions of 198,744 contracts, equivalent to almost five million tons, are the largest collective bet on higher prices since the LME first started publishing its Commitments of Traders Report in February 2018.
Tin: Tin rose 0.8% to $35,950.
Lead: Lead firmed 0.3% to $2,026.
Nickel: Nickel added 0.5% to $15,115. The metal is down 2% in 2025, heading for the third straight year of price decline. Rising production in Indonesia keeps the market oversupplied.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
