Written Commentary
Precious Metals
Gold: Gold prices rebound as a global sell-off in equities and a recent fall in prices led to buying. Waning expectations of a Fed rate cut in December and a stronger dollar have provided headwinds for gold recently; markets are now implying a 70% chance of a Fed cut in December. This is down from being nearly fully priced in before Fed Chair Powell said a December rate cut was not a foregone conclusion. ADP private nonfarm payroll data for October came in well above expectations at 42,000 new jobs, while last month’s figure was revised slightly higher from -32,000 to -29,000.
Markets will also look to ISM services PMI data for further clues on the health of the US economy after manufacturing PMI data showed a further contraction in manufacturing activity in the US alongside weak labor conditions and subsiding price pressures. Given that the US is a services-dominated economy, greater emphasis will be placed on the services reading. Gold will benefit from weaker US economic data and support the case for further Fed rate cuts.
Despite recent consolidation, gold prices remain well-supported as global demand hit a record high last quarter. Strong investment flows, robust bar and coin buying in India and China, and continued central bank purchases, including Brazil’s first in over four years, reinforce a solid floor for the yellow metal.
Silver: Silver moved higher, following moves in gold, with December US futures trading around $47.77 as markets await ISM services PMI data for clues on how the Fed will move in December.
Platinum: Platinum rose 0.30% to $1,555.
Base Metals
Copper: Copper prices extended losses, with benchmark three-month copper on the LME slipping 0.2% to $10,639.5 earlier in the morning as a stronger dollar and demand concerns in China have weighed on prices. The recent correction in copper has led LME prices to move below the 21-day moving average, which became the level of resistance at around $10,780.
Copper demand in China remains soft; the Yangshan copper premium, which gauges China’s demand for imported copper, was at $35 a ton on Tuesday, down from $58 in late September and from above $100 in May. This comes as PMI data from China missed expectations. The RatingDog China General Manufacturing purchasing manager’s index fell to 50.6 in October from 51.2 in September, below expectations of 50.7. Only employment showed a positive month-on-month change, while all other indicators declined. It should be noted that the survey was taken when President Trump had threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. Monday’s reading was better than an official survey released last Friday, which showed that factory activity declined for the seventh month in a row. The official purchasing managers’ index fell to 49.0 in October from 49.8 in September, a six-month low, per the National Bureau of Statistics.
US ISM manufacturing PMI data also came in below forecasts, with the index falling to 48.7 in October from 49.1 in September. The reading marks the eighth consecutive month of contraction in the manufacturing sector. Production shrank, and further contractions were also seen in new orders, inventories, and backlogs of orders.
Chile’s Codelco, the world’s largest copper producer, lowered its 2025 output forecast on Tuesday, though the revised target remains above 2024 levels. Production in the first nine months of 2025 also rose year-over-year. The revised forecast helped ease some near-term deficit concerns that have been supporting prices as of recent. As a whole, copper output in Chile fell 4.5% year-on-year in September. Glencore lowered its annual copper production guidance, Anglo American also reported a 9% drop in copper production in the first nine months of 2025, and Freeport-McMoRan lowered its sales outlook following the pause in operations at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia.
Zinc: Zinc lost 0.8% to $3,063.
Aluminum: Aluminum fell 0.5% to $2,846.
Tin: Tin slid 0.7% to $35,550.
Lead: Lead rose 0.3% to $2,028.5.
Nickel: Nickel eased 0.4% to $15,020 after hitting $15,015, its lowest since August 22. The metal is down 2% in 2025, heading for the third straight year of price decline. Rising production in Indonesia keeps the market oversupplied.
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