Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
US government in 35th day of partial shutdown. Grains are mixed to lower. US stocks are sharply lower. USD is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is lower. Rains South America except NE Brazil. US Midwest is dry.
USDA announced they will release a crop report on November 14, even it shutdown continues.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 11.27. SF resistance is near 11.30. SX deliveries were 204. ADM stopper. US soybean harvest is near 92 pct. Weekly exports were 35 mil bu. Season to date exports were 286 mil bu vs 476 ly. On Nov 14 some feel lower US crop could be matched by lower exports unless USDA is forced to show increase China demand. SMF finally found some selling near 323. BOF is near 50 cents. Brazil and Argentina weather remains favorable for crops. Brazil soybean basis sharply lower offset higher futures. China quiet in Brazil. Brazil soybean plantings near 47 pct vs 54 ly. Dalian soybean soymeal steady with negative crush margins, Dalian vegoil mixed and near recent lows.
CORN
CH is near 4.45. Basis should widen when commercials role to March but could bounce to buy corn. US corn exports 65 mil bu. Season to date exports 482 mil bu or up 64 pct vs ly and USDA up 5. US remains competitive to most destinations. Most look for US corn yield near 183 vs StoneX 186. Brazil and Argentina weather remains favorable for crops. Brazil C/S 1st crop plantings near 60 pct. Increase logistic challenges is slowing Ukraine grain movement to ports. Some could see US farmer planting 5-7 million less corn acres in 2026.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.58. KWH is near 5.46. MWH is near 5.78. Wheat rallied on rumors of China interest in US white and HRS wheat. Australia and Canada are cheaper. Weekly US wheat exports were 13 mil bu, Season to date exports are 435 mil bu up 21 pct vs ly and USDA up 9. Recent rally in futures has made US wheat less competitive. France seeing increase vessels to N Africa, Asia and Egypt. Talk of higher Russia crop. US winter wheat plantings near 91 pct with crop rated 51 pct G/E.
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