Written Commentary
Precious Metals
Gold: Gold prices fell as a stronger dollar and hawkish signals from the Fed weighed on prices. Fed Chair Powell warned a December cut is not a foregone conclusion, knocking market odds for another 25 bps move and lifting the 10-year Treasury above 4%. Powell said there were strongly differing views regarding how to proceed in December, and that a rate cut in December was “not a foregone conclusion – far from it. Policy is not on a preset course.” That caution helped offset the Fed’s rate cut and its decision to end quantitative tightening in December, both of which trim real short rates and add liquidity that normally support precious metals. Powell also reiterated a no-risk-free path for policy tone, underscoring uncertainty and data dependence, which, as a result of the shutdown, will make it more difficult for the Fed to cut rates in December. Powell noted that economic activity continues to expand at a moderate pace and that business investment is expanding despite tighter financial conditions – positives, which could encourage the Fed to keep rates on hold in December.
Markets also analyzed the outcome of US-China trade talks, which will see the US lowering overall tariffs on Chinese imports from 57% to 47%, while China will work to end the flow of fentanyl ingredients into the US and increase purchases of US soybeans. Rare earth exports will also continue out of China, as the country agreed to delay the implementation of its latest round of export controls for another year.
Fresh data from the World Gold Council showed that global gold demand rose by 3% year-on-year to 1,313 metric tons, the highest quarterly number on record, in the third quarter as investment demand soared. Demand for gold bars and coins rose 17% in the third quarter, led by India and China, while inflows into physically backed gold exchange-traded funds jumped by 134%. Central banks, another major source of gold demand, increased purchases by 10% to 219.9 tons in the third quarter. Kazakhstan was the largest buyer, while Brazil purchased gold for the first time in over four years.
Gold remains up nearly 50% year-to-date, supported by economic and geopolitical uncertainty, robust central bank purchases, strong ETF inflows, and the “debasement” trade. Continued purchasing of gold by central banks will continue to provide long-term support for the yellow metal.
Silver: Silver prices edged higher, breaking from moves in gold.
Platinum: Platinum fell 1.15% to $1,582.
Base Metals
Copper: Copper prices pulled back as caution out of the Fed and concerns over Chinese physical demand weighed on prices. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange fell 1.8% to $10,978 after hitting a record high of $11,200 on Wednesday on supply concerns. Physical demand in top metals consumer China showed signs of weakness as prices surged. The premium paid over SHFE prices to buy copper in the spot market flipped to a discount of 55 yuan per ton on Thursday, from a premium of 90 yuan just over two weeks ago.
Supply worries still remain supportive of prices, though. Copper output in Chile, the world’s largest producer of the metal, fell 4.5% year-on-year in September to 456,663 metric tons, statistics agency INE said on Thursday. Major miners have reported lower copper output in the first nine months of the year, following a series of global disruptions. Glencore lowered its annual copper production guidance to between 850,000 and 875,000 metric tons, versus 850,000 to 890,000 tons previously. The miner’s copper production in the January to September period fell 17% to 583,500 metric tons from last year. Anglo American on Tuesday also reported a 9% drop in copper production in the first nine months of 2025. Elsewhere on the supply front, Freeport-McMoRan lowered its sales outlook following the pause in operations at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia. Codelco’s El Teniente mine in Chile continues to see production issues, while problems in the Dominican Republic and the Democratic Republic of Congo added further pressure to global supply.
Zinc: Zinc slid 1.9% to $3,025.
Aluminum: Aluminum fell 1.4% to $2,845.
Tin: Tin shed 0.6% to $35,960.
Lead: Lead dipped 0.1% to $2,024.
Nickel: Nickel eased 1% to $15,215.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
