Global Ag News For Oct 24.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Carney Hopes to Meet Xi Soon in Bid to Cool Trade War 

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney hopes to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping next week as he tries to offset US tariffs by easing trade tensions with the world’s second-largest economy.

Carney is pursuing a meeting with the Chinese leader on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Gyeongju, South Korea, from Oct. 31 to Nov. 1, but nothing has been confirmed, a Canadian government official told reporters in a background briefing on Thursday.

In the briefing, the official said Carney is pursuing a “strategic relationship” with China. Another official said Carney believes firmly in talking to everyone — he’s been clear about areas in which the two countries can and can’t cooperate, and the goal is to further Canada’s interests and build out good opportunities for Canadian industries.

Carney met Chinese Premier Li Qiang in New York last month and the two committed to continued engagement, including at the “highest levels” of government. The G-20 Summit in South Africa in late November will be another opportunity for Carney and Xi to meet, an official said in the briefing.

China has imposed painful tariffs on Canadian canola, seafood and pork in retaliation for Canada’s levies on Chinese electric vehicles, steel and aluminum. Canada first brought in the tariffs last year in an effort to align with US policy against key Chinese sectors.

Carney has pushed to improve relations with Beijing, with his foreign minister visiting the Chinese capital to meet with her counterpart earlier this month. But he faces a challenge in trying to warm up ties with China amid delicate trade talks with the US — which is by far Canada’s largest trading partner.

President Donald Trump is set to meet with Xi on the margins of the APEC summit in their first face-to-face meeting of the US leader’s second term.

Carney’s government is reviewing its tariffs on Chinese EVs, but removing them now may undermine Canada’s negotiating position with the US. That leaves the question of what Canada can realistically offer China as it seeks relief from the agricultural import taxes.

Still, Carney has said he sees major opportunities to expand energy and agricultural trade with China. He’s bullish on shipping more liquefied natural gas to Asia and appears open to a possible new oil pipeline to Canada’s west coast.

There is no bilateral meeting scheduled between Carney and Trump at the APEC summit, but an official in the briefing said the two will “certainly see each other” and are in frequent contact. Carney has said it’s “possible” Canada and the US may reach a sectoral tariff deal by the summit, but he also warned against overplaying that timeline.

Carney departs Friday for a week-long trip in Asia, first stopping in Malaysia for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit. He aims to advance new export opportunities for Canadian industries, and he’ll also meet with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, the official said.

He’ll then travel to Singapore, where he’ll meet with Prime Minister Lawrence Wong and push to deepen the partnership between the two countries on trade, energy and technology. Carney also plans to meet with leaders from the private sector and government institutions, including state-owned investment firm Temasek Holdings, the official said.

While in South Korea, Carney will meet with President Lee Jae Myung and promote opportunities for collaboration including in critical minerals, energy and defense, the official added. The prime minister will also attend a working dinner with Australia’s Anthony Albanese and New Zealand’s Christopher Luxon.

As well, he will visit Hanwha Ocean Co.’s submarine manufacturing facility, as Canada mulls awarding a multibillion-dollar contract to the Korean company. It’s also considering a Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems bid led by Germany and Norway. Defense ministers from the two nations traveled to Ottawa this week to make their pitch.

 

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 in SRW, up 1/2 in HRW, down 1 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 3/4; Soybeans down 1 1/4; Soymeal up $0.20; Soyoil down 0.13.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 8 1/4 in SRW, up 9 in HRW, up 7 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3 3/4; Soybeans up 24; Soymeal up $11.50; Soyoil down 0.39.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 4 in SRW, up 2 3/4 in HRW, down 6 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 10 3/4; Soybeans up 40 1/2; Soymeal up $19.20; Soyoil up 1.25.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 7.2% in SRW, down 10.5% in HRW, down 6.6% in HRS; Corn is down 7.0%; Soybeans up 4.5%; Soymeal down 4.9%; Soyoil up 27.6%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 26) Soybeans up 29 yuan; Soymeal up 24; Soyoil down 20; Palm oil up 16; Corn up 3 — Malaysian Palm is down 51.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 51 ringgit (-1.14%) at 4420.

There were changes in registrations (-26 Soymeal). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 153 Soybeans; 765 Soyoil; 338 Soymeal; 619 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 23 were: SRW Wheat down 2,372 contracts, HRW Wheat down 2,286, Corn up 14,849, Soybeans down 4,071, Soymeal down 6,309, Soyoil down 2,802.

 

Daily Weather Headlines: 24 October 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: According to the LSEG Monthly forecast, warm conditions with modest rainfall pattern in November will support rapid winter wheat crop sowing
• SOUTH AMERICA: Following upcoming wet spell in South Brazil, late October/early November dry weather will favor continued corn and soybean planting
• BLACK SEA: Frequent wet spells in Ukraine and SW Russia over the next 10 days will improve soil moisture ahead of winter wheat dormancy
• AUSTRALIA : Storms’ activity during the next 5 days in Eastern Australia requires attention, as heavy rains and strong wind gusts may damage mature wheat
• TROPICS: The latest forecasts increase the potential for Tropical Storm Melissa strength, with current projections suggesting intensification to a Category 4 hurricane moving near Jamaica early next week

 

A warm November with modest rainfall will favor U.S. wheat planting progress

What to Watch:

• Warmth accompanied by moderate or dry conditions across the U.S. Plains will support rapid winter wheat sowings
• Increased precipitation in the Northwest U.S. may help to restore soil moisture for the Soft White wheat ahead of dormancy
• There is some potential for an active end of the Hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico

 

Northern Plains: A few quiet days are forecast in the region after recent rainfall may have made it a bit more difficult to continue harvest progress and other fieldwork. A system will move back in with more showers on Sunday or Monday, though the prospect for showers is uncertain and drier weather is favored afterward for a bit.

Central/Southern Plains: The region has been drier for the last few days, allowing for some fieldwork to be done. But a compact system will move into the region for Thursday through the weekend with scattered showers and perhaps some heavy rain. That should be beneficial to winter wheat establishment.

Midwest: A system continues across the Great Lakes with isolated showers on Thursday. Cooler air moving into the region will produce areas of frost for the next couple of mornings. Southern areas will get some showers Friday through the weekend. A front should move through during the middle of next week with more chances for rain and another drop in temperature. The rain should help with the ongoing drought, but probably pushes back some harvest progress in a few areas as well.

Delta: Recent rainfall has helped the drought, but has provided very little benefit to the water levels on the Mississippi River. Another system will move through this weekend with showers and another early next week could as well. Some limited benefit will occur for the drought and rivers, but low water levels continue to plague shipping up and down the river until we see a significant change in the weather pattern.

Brazil: Cooler and drier weather will continue for the next few days. The next front will move into southern areas this weekend and its migration into central Brazil in the middle of next week should restart showers there. The dry stretch in central Brazil is only slightly concerning as producers there will likely take advantage of the dryness to continue a rapid soybean planting pace. As long as the return of showers does not take longer than forecast, conditions are still mostly favorable.

Argentina: Another front will spread showers through the country for the rest of the week. The front will clear north of the country this weekend. Overall, conditions continue to be favorable for planting and early growth of corn. Soybean planting will begin in another week or so and increase in November.

Europe: A system continues to send waves of showers across the continent into next week. Soil moisture is mostly favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment, but showers may hamper the ongoing corn harvest and other fieldwork.

Black Sea: Dryness continues to be a concern, especially in southwestern Russia. However, a front comes that through from one of the European systems on Friday will bring through more widespread and moderate to heavy rainfall that the region needs. It is getting to be a little late in the year to have a significant benefit for wheat that should start to go dormant in the north over the next couple of weeks, but the reduction in drought will be helpful regardless. The region still needs an active winter to have good wheat prospects.

Australia: The trend has been for building dryness over the last few weeks. A system went through with limited showers already this week and another will move through this weekend with more showers. But the rain may miss some important areas and continue to leave them too dry. Conditions are still mixed across the country.

 

The player sheet for 10/23 had funds: net buyers of 4,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 12,000 corn, buyers of 8,000 soybeans, buyers of 4,500 soymeal, and buyers of 5,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• BARLEY TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO issued an international tender to purchase and import about 250,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• WHEAT PURCHASE UPDATE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC was believed to have purchased around 600,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender that closed on Wednesday

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in a tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice was estimated at $355.99 a metric ton CIF liner out
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase an estimated 78,744 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China, Thailand and also from unrestricted optional origins.
• RICE TENDERS: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

Argentine Corn, Wheat Crop Estimates Oct. 23: Exchange 

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2025-26 corn area estimate maintained at 7.8m ha
  • Planting advanced to 33.8% complete from 29.9% in the previous week%

 

IGC Raises Global Grain Stockpile Outlook on Wheat and Corn

Global grain stockpiles in the 2025-26 season are now seen at 618m tons, up from a September estimate of 606m tons, the International Grains Council said in a report.

• That’s the highest in three years
• The wheat stockpile estimate was raised to 275m tons from 270m tons amid an outlook for bigger production
• Corn inventories are now pegged at 299m tons, up from a previous estimate of 294m tons
• The soybean stockpile estimate was reduced to 79m tons from 83m tons

 

Russia meets 2025 grain harvest target of 135 million metric tons, TASS reports

Russia has already harvested 135 million metric tons of grain, meeting its full-year forecast, the state-run TASS news agency reported on Thursday, citing the Agriculture Ministry.

“The harvest campaign in Russia is nearing completion. As of now, 135 million metric tons of grain have been collected in bunker weight—almost 9 million more than on the same date last year,” the ministry said.

This includes 93.5 million metric tons of wheat, up nearly 8% compared to the same period in 2024.

The ministry reaffirmed its forecast for the 2025 grain harvest at 135 million metric tons.

 

Turkey Crop Production Seen Decreasing Y/y in 2025: TurkStat

TurkStat publishes its second estimate on annual crop production on its website.

Production quantities of cereals and other field crops (except fodder crops) seen decreasing by 10.4% while vegetables will decrease by 0.8% and fruits, beverage and spices crops will decrease by 30.4% compared to 2024

• Wheat production seen decreasing by 13.9% to 17.9m tons
• Cereals production seen decreasing 12.4% to about 34.2m tons
• Barley production seen decreasing by 25.9% to 6m tons

 

French Corn Harvest Accelerates, Wheat Sowing Advances: AgriMer

France’s corn harvest was 75% complete as of Monday, up from 56% in the previous week, and faster than the five-year average of 63%, FranceAgriMer said on its website.

• Some 59% of the corn crop was rated in good or very good condition, down slightly from 60% the previous week and well below the 75% level at a similar time last season
• Some 57% of the soft-wheat crop was planted as of Monday, up from 27% the previous week
  • That’s faster than the 20% at the same time last year and the five-year average of 43%
• The winter barley crop was 73% planted, compared with 45% the previous week and a five-year average of 60%

 

Czech 2025 grain harvest seen up at 7.66 mln tonnes, statistics office says

The Czech Republic’s 2025 grain harvest was seen at 7.66 million tonnes in September, 9.8% above July estimates, data from the Czech Statistics Bureau (CSU) showed on Friday.

 

Trump, Xi to Meet Next Thursday on Sidelines of APEC Summit

US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet next Thursday on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, the White House announced, as the leaders of the world’s two largest economies look to deescalate a simmering trade war.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced the timing of the meeting during a press briefing Thursday.

“I think we’re going to come out very well and everyone’s going to be very happy,” Trump said later Thursday regarding his sit-down with Xi.

The meeting in South Korea, which is hosting the APEC summit, will be the first face-to-face for the leaders since Trump returned to power in January. The two have spoken at least three times this year — most recently in September. Trump and Xi last met in person in 2019, during Trump’s first White House term.

Trump has long said direct talks with Xi are the best way to resolve the lingering issues between the countries, including tariffs, export curbs, agricultural purchases, fentanyl trafficking and geopolitical flashpoints such as Taiwan.

The US president has touted his relationship with Xi, but that rapport will be put to the test following weeks of escalating tensions between the economic superpowers. Trump earlier this month floated the possibility of scrapping their meeting altogether amid anger over Chinese export curbs on rare-earth minerals.

Asian stocks were set to open higher Friday as risk sentiment improves on the signs of de-escalating tensions. Equity index futures for Japan, Australia, Hong Kong and mainland China all climbed, tracking gains on Wall Street on Thursday.

The meeting comes as a trade truce between Washington and China is set to expire on Nov. 10, unless it’s extended. The pause on higher tariffs, which has already been renewed multiple times this year, helped ease tensions after the countries ratcheted duties up to sky-high levels. That détente has been threatened by a fresh wave of trade measures in recent weeks.

The US has broadened tech restrictions on China, floated levies on Chinese ships at US ports and is also considering additional export limits on a wide swath of critical software. Beijing, in turn, has outlined tighter export controls on rare earths and other critical minerals used in a broad range of industries, including technology, energy and transportation.

Trump has threatened to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese products on Nov. 1 if Beijing does not relent on the rare-earth curbs, even as he has said that the high levies are “not sustainable.” Those Chinese curbs have sparked international backlash, sending other economies to look for alternative supply chains for those minerals and consider retaliation.

Buffered by US restrictions over recent years, China is aiming to reduce its dependency on imported technology. The country will aim to “greatly increase” the capacity for self-reliance and strength in science and technology, according to a communique released Thursday after a four-day conclave of the Communist Party’s Central Committee.

 

Treasury Urged to Finish Clean Fuel Credit Rules by Lawmakers

The Treasury Department should take swift action to finalize clean fuel production rules to address unresolved pieces of July’s GOP tax law for the biofuels industry, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers said in a letter.

The letter, led by Rep. Tracey Mann (R-Kan.) and signed by a bipartisan mix of over two dozen lawmakers, called on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to finalize the implementation rules for the Section 45Z credit that prioritizes North American feedstocks.

“This lack of clarity has left capital stranded, stalling investments that are essential for fueling American jobs and strengthening our domestic energy sector,” the letter sent to Bessent earlier this week said.

Lawmakers emphasized the need for clear guidance on how the credit can be claimed, validated, and monetized, arguing that the lack of clarity has stalled investments in the biofuels industry.

The credit that rewards production of lower emission fuels was created in Democrats’ 2022 tax-and-climate law, replacing previous sustainable aviation fuel and biodiesel credits.

Republicans put their stamp on the credit as part of this summer’s mammoth GOP tax law, extending it through 2029 and addressing concerns that it advantaged foreign feedstocks by limiting eligibility to only ones from North America.

Treasury did not respond to a request for comment on the letter.

Because July’s GOP tax law gutted credits incentivizing energy production from wind and solar, some expect the biofuels credit and its energy market to grow in the coming years.

Changes to the credit has energized lobbying by groups ranging from corn and soybean growers to airlines, fuel producers and truck stop operators, federal disclosures show. The groups spent millions in the run-up to the July law and have continued since its passage.

Each sector of the industry has sought to influence different parts of the rulemaking process. One area of groups’ focus is how agencies, including Treasury, will handle carbon intensity score eligibility requirements, which could impact credit value.

“At a time when farmers are struggling to find foreign market access for commodities, recurring domestic demand from the biofuels industry is more important than ever,” the letter said. “The effective, timely, and scientific implementation of 45Z is essential to realize the credit’s full potential.”

 

 

 

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