Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
US government in 24th day of partial shutdown and no end in sight. Grains are lower. US stocks are higher on strong earnings. Some Banks could see S&P test 7,000. USD is higher. Crude is unch and near $61. US Russia sanctions will make crude expensive to China and India. Gold is lower. Trump will meet with Xi at Asia Pacific CEO summit. EU and Black Sea wet. Argentina wet. Rains forecast for Brazil. Rains are in SE KS, E OK,E TX and moving into MO.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 10.60. Dalian soybean, soymeal and palmoil were higher and soyoil were lower. China crush margins negative with China lowering hog herd. SMZ remains above 100 DMA. Soymeal demand remains strong. BOZ above 200 and 20 day moving averages but below 50 and 100. China still not buying US soybeans and may soon tap reserves for crush. There were unfounded rumors China bought 1.2 mmt US PNW soybeans. Talk of Trump/XI meeting has slowed US farmer selling. Brazil soybean planting pace is ahead of average with rains in forecast. Argentina peso is lower ahead of key elections. Argentina could see record soybean crop. ICG est World soybean crop at 428 mmt vs 429 ly, use 430 vs 419 and stocks slightly lower.
CORN
CZ is near 4.26. Some feel recent corn rally linked to talk of lower IA corn yields. US farmer slowed new selling. Dalian corn futures were higher. Argentina peso lower ahead of October 26. Argentina could see record corn crop. Trump and XI meeting next week has helped corn futures following soybean higher. Rare earth exports may be only topic. Trade could see more farmer selling over weekend. IGC left World corn crop at 1,297 mmt which is up 4.7 pct vs ly.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.11. KWZ is near 5.00. MWZ is near 5.55. Wheat futures this week followed higher corn and soybeans. US S and C plains could see weekend rains. Argentina and Australia will soon harvest record crops. Record Argentina yield could question protein level. This could help US HRW export demand. IGC increased World wheat crop 8 mmt to 827. Russia +1.5, US +1.6 and Argentina +2.0.
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