Global Ag News For Oct 14.2025

TOP HEADLINES

France to harvest below-average grain maize crop, growers say

France is expected to produce 12.9 million metric tons of grain maize this year, about 3% below the average of the past five years, maize farmers group AGPM said on Tuesday.

The forecast did not include maize (corn) grown for seed.

It was based on a projected yield of 8.85 tons per hectare, about 4% below the five-year average, with yields for non-irrigated fields hit by hot, dry spells during the summer, the AGPM said in a harvest presentation with crop institute Arvalis.

Yields on irrigated farms were expected to have held up relatively well, helped by fewer restrictions on water use compared with recent years, Aude Carrera, maize specialist at Arvalis, told reporters.

France’s farm ministry last month reduced its production outlook for grain maize, not including seeds, to 13.4 million tons. It is due to update its estimate later on Tuesday.

As of October 6, farmers had harvested 37% of this year’s grain maize crop, farm office FranceAgriMer said on Friday.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3 3/4 in SRW, down 3 1/4 in HRW, down 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1/2; Soybeans down 4; Soymeal up $0.70; Soyoil down 0.65.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 4 1/2 in SRW, down 5 in HRW, down 1 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 2 1/4; Soybeans down 2 1/2; Soymeal up $0.30; Soyoil up 0.03.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 15 in SRW, down 19 3/4 in HRW, down 12 in HRS; Corn is down 5 1/4; Soybeans up 2; Soymeal up $1.50; Soyoil up 0.46.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 10.4% in SRW, down 14.5% in HRW, down 7.7% in HRS; Corn is down 10.4%; Soybeans up 0.6%; Soymeal down 13.4%; Soyoil up 25.8%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 25) Soybeans down 11 yuan; Soymeal down 24; Soyoil down 12; Palm oil down 10; Corn down 20 — Malaysian Palm is down 39.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 39 ringgit (-0.87%) at 4460.

 

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 153 Soybeans; 707 Soyoil; 364 Soymeal; 619 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 13 were: SRW Wheat up 9,419 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,228, Corn up 15,821, Soybeans down 5,810, Soymeal up 3,227, Soyoil down 484.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 13 OCTOBER 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: There is still no end in sight to widespread North America warmth, with minimal frost risks to crops through the balance of the month
• SOUTH AMERICA: Argentina will experience dry conditions through the next 10 days before rainfall chances increase, with mostly positive impacts on crops
• EAST ASIA: Upcoming cool/wet weather for China will slow crop progress and will include frost risks for the Northeast and North China Plain
• SOUTH ASIA: Increasingly warm and dry conditions over northern India through the next couple weeks will facilitate wheat plantings
• TELECONNECTIONS: La Niña conditions developed in September and this is likely to hold at weak levels through December-February before fading, potentially featuring Argentina heat/drought risks

 

BRAZIL WILL TREND DRIER INTO LATE OCTOBER BEFORE THE NEXT MAJOR RAINFALL CHANCES RETURN

What to Watch:

• Warm temperatures and moderate rains will impact Argentina through the next 10 days before temperatures moderate in a favorable crop outlook
• Widespread cool conditions will arrive across Brazil by the end of the week, but the outlook will trend drier at the same time until late in the month to the benefit of corn/soybean planting progress
• Moderate weather is in store for Paraguay through the next couple weeks, with minimal impacts on corn/soybean plantings

 

Brazil – Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Scattered showers north Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Friday. 

Brazil – Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias: Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday. 

Argentina – Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Thursday, near normal Friday. 

Argentina – La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Thursday, near normal Friday.  

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above to well above normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Tuesday, near normal Wednesday. 

Midwest West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday, especially north. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, above to well above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Midwest East: Isolated showers through Friday, mostly north. Temperatures above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, above normal Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Wednesday.

 

The player sheet for 10/13 had funds: net sellers of 6,000 corn, sellers of 1,500 soybeans, sellers of 500 soymeal, and buyers of 1,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Saudi Arabia’s main state wheat buying agency, the General Food Security Authority (GFSA), said it purchased around 500,000 metric tons of wheat from Saudi investors abroad.
• DURUM WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to purchase a nominal 50,000 metric tons of durum wheat.
• SUNFLOWER OIL TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO issued an international tender to purchase and import about 18,000 metric tons of crude sunflower oil.

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group has issued an international tender to buy up to 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn which can be sourced from the United States, Argentina, Brazil or South Africa
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 157,000 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China and the United States
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

 

TODAY

Analysts estimate US soy harvest as 58% complete, corn 44%

The U.S. soybean harvest crossed the halfway mark last week and corn harvesting advanced, but progress lagged behind last year’s unusually fast pace, according to a Reuters poll of 10 analysts on Monday.

Farmers were harvesting the biggest U.S. corn crop in history and a bumper soy crop.

On average, the analysts estimated the soybean crop was 58% harvested by Sunday and the corn harvest was 44% complete. Estimates ranged widely from 52% to 70% for soybeans and 35% to 55% for corn.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture normally publishes a weekly crop progress report each Monday afternoon, or on Tuesday after a federal holiday such as Monday’s Columbus/Indigenous Peoples’ Day. But due to the ongoing government shutdown, no reports from the agency’s statistical arm were scheduled for release this week. The agency also did not issue a crop progress report last week.

A year ago at this time, the USDA reported that the soybean harvest was 67% complete, the fastest pace in more than a decade, and the corn harvest was 47% complete as dry conditions helped speed crops to maturity and minimize weather delays.

“This year the dry-down (of crops) has been a little bit slower,” said Don Roose, president of Iowa-based U.S. Commodities.

Analysts on average rated 64% of the U.S. corn crop in good-to-excellent condition, down 1 percentage point from the average in last week’s analyst poll. Analysts rated soybeans as 61% good to excellent, unchanged from last week’s trade average.

Farmers continue to plant the U.S. winter wheat crop that will be harvested in 2026. Analysts on average estimated winter wheat planting as 66% complete, up from last week’s average trade estimate of 50%.

 

Soybeans steady as Trump, Bessent comments calm market

• Soybeans gain support from Trump, Bessent’s comments
• Corn eases on hedge pressure
• Wheat choppy amid global harvest pressure

Chicago soybean futures firmed on Monday, as comments from U.S. President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent calmed markets after U.S.-China trade tensions had triggered a sharp decline in the previous session, analysts said.

Wheat was burdened by large global supplies, while corn futures fell on harvest pressure from an ongoing harvest in the U.S. Midwest.

Chicago Board of Trade most-active soybeans Sv1settled 1 cent higher at $10.07-3/4 per bushel.

China, usually a huge buyer of U.S. soybeans, has stopped U.S. purchases.

The latest rupture followed China’s announcement on Thursday that it would dramatically expand its rare earths export controls, driven by concern over the military applications of these elements at a time of “frequent military conflicts.”

A sharp countermeasure from Trump on Friday sent markets and relations between the world’s two largest economies into a spiral.

However, Trump posted on social media over the weekend that the U.S. did not want to “hurt” China. In an interview with Fox Business Network, Bessent said there were substantial communications between the two sides over the weekend and more meetings were expected.

“The trade is looking at this as another headwind, but not a roadblock,” Jim Gerlach, president of A/C Trading, said.

Corn Cv1settled 2-1/4 cents lower at $4.10-3/4 per bushel, and wheat Wv1 fell 1-3/4 cents to $4.96-3/4 per bushel.

U.S. corn and soybean harvests are advancing but traders will not receive their usual detailed Monday USDA crop progress report. Corn futures have come under strain from farmer selling and harvest pressure.

Wheat export competition is intensifying with Russian exports increasing. Global harvest pressure and a lack of weather problems in wheat-producing countries has added additional pressure to wheat futures.

 

Brazil Soybean Planting 14% Done as of Oct. 9: AgRural

Planting of Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop is 14% completed, which compares with 9% a week earlier and 8% same time last year, according to an emailed report from consulting firm AgRural.

• Pace is the third fastest on record for this time of the year, AgRural said
• Planting of the summer corn crop in Brazil’s Center-South region is 45% completed, vs 40% a week earlier and 41% a year earlier

 

Indonesia considers regulating crude palm oil exports to meet B50 demand

Indonesia’s government may regulate exports of crude palm oil to ensure there is enough domestic supply to produce biodiesel, its energy minister said on Tuesday.

The world’s biggest producer of palm oil has implemented a biofuel programme blending palm oil-based fuel with diesel for more than a decade to reduce reliance on fuel imports. The current mandate is to mix 40% palm oil with diesel, known as B40.

Jakarta’s plan to raise this to B50 in the second half of 2026 has raised concerns that it could reduce global edible oil supplies as Indonesia would have less to ship overseas.

Acknowledging B50 would increase domestic demand for crude palm oil, Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia said the government is considering measures to increase palm oil production to meet rising demand, or to reduce exports.

“Cutting exports is an option, one of our options,” Bahlil told reporters.

“I repeat, it is an option to regulate between domestic and foreign demand and one of our instruments is DMO,” he said.

Indonesia has a rule called the Domestic Market Obligation (DMO) linking a palm oil company’s export permit with mandatory sales of cooking oil to the local market.

Another option under consideration to raise output is opening up new palm oil plantations, Bahlil said, adding no decision has been finalised.

The government completed laboratory tests on the B50 mix in August and is set to carry out road tests next.

Adopting B50 would require 20.1 million kilolitres of palm oil-based biofuel a year for mixing with regular petroleum diesel, compared to 15.6 million KL with B40, energy ministry data showed.

 

China urges swift action as rain disrupts key grain harvest

China’s vice premier on Monday said that recent continuous rainfall in the key grain-producing Huang-Huai-Hai region has disrupted the autumn harvest, urging swift action to ensure the country meets its annual grain output target of around 700 million tons.

Liu Guozhong was quoted by state news agency Xinhua as saying that China must “do everything possible” to secure the harvest and procurement of autumn grain, alongside all autumn and winter planting tasks.

Autumn grain accounts for about 75% of China’s annual grain production. The Huang-Huai-Hai region – China’s largest summer corn and winter wheat belt, spanning provinces such as Shandong, Henan, Hebei, and Jiangsu – is now racing against time to salvage crops during the critical harvest window.

State broadcaster CCTV reported on Friday that farmers and companies were mobilizing grain drying equipment to speed up harvests before wet grains spoil, while the agriculture ministry had dispatched four work teams to oversee the urgent harvest efforts.

To support affected areas, China has allocated roughly $68 million to seven provinces, including those in the Huang-Huai-Hai region, where prolonged wet weather has hindered both the harvesting and drying of grain crops.

As the region enters the optimal planting period for winter wheat, continued wet conditions threaten to delay sowing and could impact next year’s wheat supply.

Liu also called for stronger supplies of agricultural inputs such as seeds and fertilizers, and urged local officials to guide farmers to implement technical measures like moisture-resistant winter wheat sowing to ensure timely and sufficient planting.

No official damage estimates have been released yet.

 

Russia’s seaborne grain exports fell 10% year-on-year in September, data shows

Russia’s seaborne grain exports fell to 5.1 million metric tons in September, 10.1% down on the same month of 2024, according to shipping data provided to Reuters by industry sources.

Seaborne exports accounted for about 90% of Russia’s total grain exports in the last season, which ran from July 1, 2024 to June 30, 2025.

Total seaborne exports have reached 13.1 million tons so far this season, 20.9% down year-on-year, according to the data.

The fall partly reflects the slower pace of this year’s harvest.

Exports via Black Sea terminals, which normally account for around 90% of all seaborne grain shipments, dropped by 9.8% to 4.7 million tons in September 2025.

Deliveries via the Caspian Sea, mainly to Iran, increased by 47.2% but the amount remained small, at 0.3 million tons.

Exports via Baltic Sea terminals, which supply Russian grain to “new markets” including in Africa and Latin America, fell by 73.3% to 0.05 million tons in September 2025. Exports via Far East terminals were down by 27.9% to 0.04 million tons.

 

Malaysia Keeps Crude Palm Oil Export Tax at 10% for November

The gazetted price for crude palm oil was set at 4,262.23 ringgit a ton, which incurs the maximum export tax of 10%, according to a circular from the customs department posted on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s website.

• The tax rate was 10% in October as well
• NOTE: The export-duty structure starts at 3%, when FOB prices for CPO are in a range of 2,250-2,400 ringgit/ton, to a maximum rate of 10%, which occurs when prices are above 4,050 ringgit/ton

 

France Trims Soft-Wheat Crop Estimate, Raises Corn: Ministry

France’s soft-wheat output is now seen at 33.2m tons this year, slightly lower than September’s estimate of 33.3m tons, according to an agriculture ministry report on Tuesday.

• Still, that’s 29% above 2024’s historically low production and 4.3% above the five-year average
  • NOTE: France’s soft-wheat harvest ended in August
• The winter-barley harvest is now seen at 8.4m tons, down slightly from last month’s estimate of 8.5m tons
• Corn production, excluding seeds, is seen at 13.5m tons, up from September’s estimate of 13.3m tons
  • That’s still 7.5% below last year due to heat waves and drought in the summer that affected yields
  • NOTE: France’s corn harvest started in early September
• Durum-wheat production seen at 1.28m tons, slightly higher than last month’s estimate of 1.26m tons
• Rapeseed harvest outlook at 4.6m tons, little changed from last month

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Prices of the imported wheat are the smallest since Nov/20

The average price of the wheat imported by Brazil in September was the lowest since November 2020, according to data from Secex. Since the international market has been more competitive, trades of the national product are moving at a slow pace and quotations are decreasing.

In September, the price average of the imported product was at USD 230.09 per ton. Considering the exchange rate at BRL 5.368, the value is equivalent to BRL 1,235.12 per ton. In the same period, average quotations in Rio Grande do Sul were at BRL 1,259.39/ton, according to data from Cepea, indicating high competitiveness of the imported wheat against the product from Brazil.

According to Secex, Brazil imported 568.98 thousand tons of wheat in September, 15.4% more than in August/25, but 3.8% less than in September/2024. In 2025, imports have totaled 5.249 million tons, for an increase of 2% against the year before and the highest volume for the period since 2007.

According to data from Cepea, between October 3 and 10, in the wholesale market (deals between processors), values dropped 3.1% in Rio Grande do Sul and 3.95% in São Paulo, but upped 0.31% in Paraná and remained stable in Santa Catarina. The US increased 3.17% against Real in the same period, at BRL 5.499 on October 10.

 

First Rise in US Tractor Sales in Year Lifts Farm Sector Hopes

A small bump in US tractor sales is raising hopes the farm-machinery sector may be starting to turn around after years of tough conditions.

Sales of tractors rose 4.1% in September, the first increase in 13 months, according to data from the Association of Equipment Manufacturers, a trade group representing companies in agriculture, forestry, construction, utility and mining.

Tractor sales improved despite low crop prices leaving growers with less to spend on new equipment. US President Donald Trump’s tariffs have helped to shut off demand for commodities such as soybeans, cotton and sorghum from the world’s top commodities importer China while tariffs on steel and aluminum raise costs to build machines in the US.

“After challenging months of continued sales declines in the US market, this modest increase is certainly encouraging,” Curt Blades, senior vice president at AEM, said in a Monday release. “Although there is some uncertainty and volatility in the marketplace, we are optimistic this positive trend will continue, particularly as the harvest season progresses.”

Manufacturers including industry leader Deere & Co. have said 2025 would be the trough, or low point, in the cycle before a recovery begins to take shape next year. Still, even with the increase in tractors, sales of the combines used to harvest fields fell about 22% in September, according to AEM.

 

Analysts Cut Estimates for Russian Sunflower Output in 2025

SovEcon on Monday cut its forecast for Russia’s 2025 sunflower seed production to 17.2 million tons from 17.4 million tons, citing record-low yields in southern regions.

• Losses in the South are partly offset by strong results in the Central, Volga, and Siberian regions
  • Its estimate represents the country’s lowest output in at least 13 years, the grain consultancy said
  • “Southern yields have collapsed amid challenging weather, but strong performance elsewhere is keeping Russia’s oilseed balance comfortable for now. Farmers postponing sales in hopes of significantly higher prices may be disappointed,” Andrey Sizov Jr., managing director of SovEcon, said by email
• IKAR also lowered its sunflower seed production to 17.5 million tons from 17.8 million tons
• NOTE: USDA pegs Russia’s sunflower seed production at 19 million tons for the 2025-26 season
  • Russia is one of the world’s biggest exporters of sunflower oil, an alternative to soybean and rapeseed oil
• Both consultants raised their estimates for Russia’s soybean production: SovEcon — 8.5 million tons; IKAR — 9 million tons.

 

Brazil’s use of agrochemicals soared due to soy farmers’ isolated use of no-till farming, report says

Brazilian soy farmers’ use of no-till farming without other regenerative practices pushed consumption of agrochemicals to soar by over 2000% in the three decades to 2023, think tank Instituto Escolhas said in a study published on Monday.

Based on data from official sources, the report estimated that Brazilian soy farmers’ use of agrochemicals, mostly herbicides, grew from 16,458 metric tons per year in 1993 to 348,809 tons per year in 2023.

“Without considering integrated systems … the practice of no-till farming alone can generate negative consequences for the soil, such as compaction and increased use of herbicides to control weeds,” one of the report’s coordinators, Jaqueline Ferreira, said in a press release.

No-till farming prevents erosion and boosts soil health, according to Instituto Escolhas. Yet as the practice grew in isolation, without other practices like crop rotation and providing living ground cover, weeds became a growing problem, requiring ever-greater quantities of herbicides.

“The practice was widely disseminated across Brazilian farms in isolation from other soil conservation and regeneration practices, making it highly dependent on the use of herbicides to control weeds,” the report said.

Farmers’ group Aprosoja Brasil did not immediately respond to an email seeking comment.

The growing use of chemicals far outstripped the expansion of Brazil’s soy crop. The planted area of soy rose 317%, from 10.7 million hectares in 1993 (26.4 million acres) to 44.5 million hectares in 2023, the report said.

According to the report, while one kilogram of agrochemicals could produce 23 bags of soybeans in 1993, just seven bags of soybeans could be produced with the same amount in 2023.

“The intensive use of synthetic inputs is highly harmful to the soil and its microorganisms,” the report said.

The report interviewed a total of 34 conventional, regenerative and organic soy farmers in Brazil’s states of Mato Grosso, Goias and Parana, all of whom reported being concerned for the resilience of their crops in the medium and long term, citing rising prices of agricultural products and the impact of climate variations.

 

 

 

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