Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
US government in 13 1h day of partial shutdown. Hamas released Isreal hostages. Grains are mixed to slightly higher after Trump tweeted all is ok with China. US stocks are sharply higher. USD is higher. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. US Midwest will be warm and dry. C/N Brazil dry but rains are forecasted.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.08. Dalian soybean and soymeal futures were higher, palmoil and soyoil were lower. Trump tweet that all if ok with China offset news that Trump will increase China tariffs 100 pct to 155, lack of USDA October report, US export sales data and CFTC report is bearish. China imposition tariffs on US operated vessels adds to cost Of US soybeans to China. Trade est US soybean harvest near 55-57 pct. Some could see final US soybean yield slightly below USDA 53.0 but trade could see US final soybean exports drop 435 mil bu below USDA 1,685 which could increase US carryout and drop SX closer to 9.50. US announced $20 bil support for Argentina currency.
CORN
CZ is near 4.13. Dalian corn futures were lower. Increase US harvest is offering resistance to futures. Bears feel last 30 pct of harvest will stress storage capacity and weigh on futures and cash basis. Lack of USDA October report, US export sales data and CFTC report is bearish. Brazil corn basis firm on increase N Africa and Middle East demand. China left corn import quota at 7.2 mmt vs USDA 10.0 and Ag Minister est of 6.0. Trade est US corn harvest near 40 pct with US yield slightly below USDA 186.7 but yield and residual could drop 200 mil bu and increase carryout closer to 2,464 mil bu and could drop CZ closer to 380.
WHEAT
WZ is near 4.98. KWZ is near 4.83. MWZ is near 552. Lack of USDA October report, US export sales data and CFTC report is bearish. Some feel if there was a report, they would have raised Argentina , Russia and Canada crops. They may have kept Australia crop unch but lowered exports. China left wheat import quota at 9.6 mmt and USDA est of 6.0 mmt. Russia announced 2026 acres will be down 6 pct. Russia export pace is slower than USDA 45.0 mmt est which suggest active Oct-Jan to reach USDA goal.
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