Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
USDA report day? Nope! US government in 9th day of partial shutdown. 12,000 US flight delayed from Monday to Wednesday due to air traffic control staff shortages. Gaza deal? Grains are mixed. US stocks are quietly mixed. Fed members expressed some caution to lower rates. USD is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is slightly lower on Gaza deal. EU model suggest US Midwest will be warm and dry. GFS is wet. C/N Brazil dry but rains are forecasted.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.25. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were higher. Indonesia looks at B50 and palmoil near peak seasonal production. USDA announced USDA October 9 report is on hold due to government shutdown. Trade est US soybean crop at 4,271 mil bu and USDA Sep est of 4,301. Trade est US carryout at 299 vs USDA Sep est of 300. Trade also est World soybean end stocks at 124.1 mmt vs USDA Sep est of 123.9. Soybeans to deal with export headwind, soymeal domestic US basis firming. Soyoil finding support from tighter pamoil and sunoil S/D. US soybean exports commit is est down 34 pct vs ly.
CORN
CZ is near 4.21. Dalian corn is lower. USDA announced USDA October 9 report is on hold due to government shut down. Trade est US corn crop at 16,645 mil bu and USDA Sep 16,814 mil bu. Trade est US corn carryout at 2,231 mil bu vs USDA 2,110. Trade also est World corn end stocks near 283.6 mmt vs USDA Sep est of 281.4. Weekly US ethanol production was up 3 pct vs ly with stocks up 2 pct vs ly. Brazil corn basis firm on increase N Africa demand. US corn export commit is est near 30 mmt and well above last year to date.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.09. KWZ is near 4.95. MWZ is near 560. USDA announced USDA October 9 report is on hold due to government shutdown. Trade est US wheat carryout at 875 mil bu vs USDA Sep 844. Trade also est World wheat end stocks near 265.7 mmt vs USDA Sep est of 264.0. Russia lowering prices and increasing export supplies. Argentina est record wheat crop. EU logistics challenged.
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