Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
US government partial shutdown continues. Grains are mixed. US stocks are higher. USD is higher. Crude is higher. Gold is above 4,000. Goldman Sachs revised Gold price outlook to 4,900 from 4,300.Reports suggest Central Banks buying gold reducing dependence on USD and vulnerability to US sanctions. Silver and Copper also higher. CSI commodity index higher and leaving grains behind. US Midwest is warm and dry. C/N Brazil dry but rains are forecasted.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.22. Dalian is closed. Trade est US soybean crop at 4,271 mil bu and USDA Sep est of 4,301. One analyst est the crop closer to 4,241. USDA announced USDA October 9 report is on hold due to government shutdown. Trade est US carryout at 299 vs USDA Sep est of 300. Trade also est World soybean end stocks at 124.1 mmt vs USDA Sep est of 123.9. SX stuck between 10.00-10.40. Soybean dealing with export headwind, soymeal is in supply bear market. Soyoil finding tech support but trading latest biofuel headline. Brazil and Argentina farmer increasing cash selling.
CORN
CZ is near 4.19. Dalian is closed. Trade est US corn crop at 16,645 mil bu and USDA Sep est of 16,814. One analyst est the crop closer to 16.732. USDA announced USDA October 9 report is on hold due to government shutdown. Trade est US corn carryout at 2,231 mil bu vs USDA 2,110. Trade also est World corn end stocks near 283.6 mmt vs USDA Sep est of 281.4. Low price sorghum could displace corn feeding and corn used for ethanol. Last 30 pct of US harvest could come to market due to stress on storage capacity.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.05. KWZ is near 4.90. MWZ is near 552 with higher Canada supply offering resistance. USDA announced USDA October 9 report is on hold due to government shutdown. Trade est US wheat carryout at 875 mil bu vs USDA Sep 844. Trade also est World wheat end stocks near 265.7 mmt vs USDA Sep est of 264.0. US wheat export values still at higher end of global fob prices. Russia lowering prices and increasing export supplies.
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