Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.02-$.03 lower in choppy 2 sided trade closing near session lows. Spreads firmed. Dec-25 corn rejected trade above its 100 day MA at $4.23 ½. No USDA production and WASDE reports this week. Wire services also polled analysts for their production and ending stock forecasts. According to the Reuters poll the Ave. estimate for corn production was 16.645 bil. bu. down 169 mil. bu. from the USDA est. in Sept. The Ave. yield was down 1.7 bpa to 185, still a record high however. Ending stocks however, are expected to rise 120 mil. bu. to 2.23 bil. and up 700 mil. bu. from YA. EU 2025/26 corn imports as of Oct. 5th at 3.93 mmt are down 30% YOY. SovEcon raised their Ukrainian corn production est. .9 mmt to 31.8 mmt, in line with the USDA forecast in Sept-25 at 32 mmt.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mostly higher with beans up $.02-$.04, meal was mixed and near unchanged while oil was up 65-75 points making session highs near the close. Spreads firmed across the complex. Deliveries against Oct-25 meal slipped to 186 contracts while oil plunged to only 4. Resistance for Nov-25 beans is at its 100 day MA at $10.28 ½. Dec-25 oil closed into fresh 2 week highs despite Brazil’s Govt. acknowledging they may delay increasing their countries diesel blended with biodiesel from 15-16%. This was scheduled to happen by Mch-26. The same thing happened earlier this year when they went from a 14% to 15% blend as it was pushed back from Mch-25 to Aug-25. Spot board crush margins improved $.02 ½ to $1.48 ½ with bean oil PV increasing to 48%, a 2 month high. The Trump administration is expected to announce details of their financial aid package for American farmers hurt by the current trade dispute with China. No information as of this writing. Reuters is reporting the cost of this program will fall between $10-15 bil. The Trump Admin. has repeatedly stated funds for this aid will come from tariff revenue, which would require Congressional action, obviously made more difficult with the current shutdown. Also complicating the matter is that the Supreme Court will hear arguments next month on whether the Trump Admin. use of tariffs are legal in the 1st place, something that a lower appellate court deemed were not. US soybean production is expected to slip 30 mil. bu. to 4.271 bil. with an average yield of 53.2 bpa. The lower production likely to be offset by lower demand keeping stocks close to 300 mil. bu. EU 2025/26 soybean imports as of Oct. 5th have reached 3.28 mmt, down 4% from YA. Meal imports at 4.77 mmt are steady with YA.
WHEAT
Prices were $.03-$.06 lower across the 3 classes, closing near session lows. New contract low for Dec-25 MIAX with next support at $5.45 ¼, the September low on the weekly chart. US winter wheat plantings are believed to have hit the halfway point, up from 34% the previous week. Ending stocks are expected to jump 30 mil. bu. to 875 mil. due to the higher production #’s at end of Sept. Russia has so far harvested 128 mmt of grain this year. Grain harvest is expected to reach 135 mmt. Ukraine’s WW plantings have also reached the halfway point with 2.35 mil. HA seeded. Jordan passed on making a purchase with their recent 120k mt tender. Bangladesh has committed to buy 220k mt of US wheat at $308/mt CF. This in a Govt. to Govt. deal as part of 700k mt trade deal our countries made this summer. EU soft wheat exports as of Oct. 5th at 4.96 mmt are down 25% YOY.
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