Written Commentary
Precious Metals
Gold: Gold futures are higher, as expectations of further interest rate cuts from the Fed, a weaker dollar, and political uncertainty due to the US government shutdown continue to provide support for the yellow metal. While markets view the government shutdown as having no real impact, the lack of data, especially what would be September’s jobs report today, has added to broader concerns over policy uncertainty. Wednesday’s weak ADP employment data cemented expectations that the Fed will cut rates in October and added to expectations of a December rate cut. The report offered a surprise 32,000 decline in private-sector payrolls. However, a Chicago Fed estimate showed that the US unemployment rate held at 4.3% in September, offering a bit of a substitute for the delayed September jobs report. In Fedspeak, Dallas Fed President Logan (nonvoter, centrist) said that the last rate cut was insurance against a nonlinear decline in the labor market, with labor market conditions looking fairly balanced.
Silver: Silver futures are higher after falling apart on Thursday.
Platinum: Platinum futures are up over 3% at $1,613.
Base Metals
Copper: Copper hit a 16-month high as the metal heads for its strongest week in almost half a year as supply worries and a softer dollar fueled demand. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was up 0.7% at $10,565 per ton and on course for a weekly gain of 4.1%. Focus in the copper market remains on supply-side risks following Freeport-McMoran’s force majeure at its Grasberg mine and disruptions at other large mines, including the Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Codelco’s El Teniente mine in Chile. LME-registered copper stocks have fallen to 140,475 tons, the lowest since the start of August while stocks at COMEX warehouses remain abundant, although have not appeared to weigh on US prices.
Zinc: Zinc fell 0.8% to $2,995, having hit $3,039 earlier in the session. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group noted that although mined zinc production rose 6.3% annually in the first half of 2025, bottlenecks in refiners drove output of refined metal to fall over 2%. Smelters in Kazakhstan and Japan have suffered from output curbs, while treatment charges have risen to $87.50, according to surveys from the Shanghai Metals Market.
Aluminum: Aluminum rose 0.4% to $2,703.
Tin: Tin climbed 1.4% to $37,400 and is on course to finish the week up 8.5%.
Lead: Lead was down 0.3% at $2,018.
Nickel: Nickel gained 0.4% to $15,375.
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