Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
US government in 3rd day of shutdown. USDA and jobs data delayed. Grains are mixed after Thursdays rally. US stocks are higher. Goldman Sachs looks for US economy to accelerate into 2026 from continued stimulus and tech spending outweigh a softer labor market and geopolitical turmoil. USD is lower. Crude is higher after fire in California refinery but still down for the week. Gold is higher. FAO Sep Food Index down from August but above last year due to record high meal prices. US Midwest dry. C/N Brazil dry.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.23. Soybean futures found support from either a trade deal with China or financial aid to farmers that could give them cash to wait for a deal. Farmer selling slowed waiting for any news about either a trade deal or aid. Aid rumored to be $10-14 billion. There were 276 soyoil deliveries and 244 soymeal. S&P Global est US soybean crop at 4,261 mil bu and USDA Sep est of 4,301. USDA announced USDA October 9 report is on hold due to government shutdown. China is closed for holiday. Trade guesses US soybean export commit is near 12 mmt and down 37 pct vs ly and USDA down 10 pct. There is little OND China soybean demand after Argentina sold to China. US August soybean crush is est at 196.9 mil bu vs 167.5 ly. Soyoil stocks are est at 1,726 mil lbs vs 1,629 ly.
CORN
CZ is near 4.22 following the rally in soybean futures. Trade was worried that a new China soybean trade deal could include corn. S&P Global est US corn crop at 16,707 mil bu and USDA Sep est of 16,814. USDA announced USDA October 9 report is on hold due to government shutdown. China is closed for holiday. Trade est US corn export commit is near 27.4 mmt up 67 pct vs ly and USDA up 9. Wet forecast could slow Black Sea harvest. Weekly US ethanol production, stocks and gas demand was down from ly.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.16. WZ followed soybean rally. KWZ is near 5.00. MWZ is near 5.60. Matif wheat futures near recent lows. S&P Global est EU wheat crop up 1.1 mmt to 140.1, Russia up 2.0 mmt to 86.5 and Canada up 1,4 mmt to 37.2. Argentina expected to harvest a record 22 mmt crop. Australia could also harvest a near record crop at 35.2 mmt. Trade est US wheat export commit near 14.15 mmt or up 22 pct vs ly and USDA up 9. Saudi Arabia is in for at 420 mt tender for Dec-Jan.
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