Global Ag News For Oct 2.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Tyson Foods to pay $85 million in largest pork price-fixing settlement

Tyson Foods N agreed to pay $85 million to settle a lawsuit by consumers who accused the largest U.S. meat company of conspiring with rivals to inflate pork prices by limiting supply in the $20 billion U.S. market.

The preliminary class action settlement disclosed on Wednesday is the largest in more than seven years of antitrust litigation by the consumers against pork producers, surpassing Smithfield Foods’ $75 million settlement in 2022.

It would boost consumers’ overall recovery to $208 million, including settlements with Brazil’s JBS, Hormel Foods and other defendants.

Tyson, based in Springdale, Arkansas, is the last publicly traded company to settle.

Its settlement requires approval by U.S. District Judge John Tunheim in Minneapolis.

Tyson did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Lawyers for the consumers did not immediately respond to similar requests.

Triumph Foods and data provider Agri Stats remain defendants.

Dozens of supermarket chains including Kroger, restaurant chains including McDonald’s, food producers and food distributors have also sued over pork prices.

Plaintiffs said the alleged conspiracy ran from 2009 to 2018, and was intended to increase the defendants’ profits, as well as prices.

Similar litigation alleging price-fixing of beef, chicken and turkey is pending in Minnesota and Chicago federal courts.

The case is In re Pork Antitrust Litigation, U.S. District Court, District of Minnesota, No. 18-01776.

 

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are unchanged in SRW, down 1/4 in HRW, up 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1/2; Soybeans down 3/4; Soymeal down $0.60; Soyoil up 0.13.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 10 in SRW, down 10 1/4 in HRW, down 11 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 4 1/2; Soybeans down 3/4; Soymeal down $1.10; Soyoil up 0.49.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 7.6% in SRW, down 11.4% in HRW, down 6.6% in HRS; Corn is down 8.9%; Soybeans up 1.5%; Soymeal down 13.6%; Soyoil up 25.1%.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 62 ringgit (+1.41%) at 4450.

China markets are closed for Holiday

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 153 Soybeans; 707 Soyoil; 264 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 1 were: SRW Wheat up 13,157 contracts, HRW Wheat up 6,101, Corn up 21,944, Soybeans up 8,252, Soymeal up 13,147, Soyoil down 9,038.

 

WARM SOUTH AMERICA TEMPERATURES WILL CARRY THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE FRONTAL ACTIVITY INCREASES

What to Watch:

• Warm and dry weather will dominate across most of Argentina into mid-October, with positive impacts on wheat development
• Widespread Brazil warmth this week will give way to cooler regional temperatures next week, but dry conditions will persist
• A round of cool/wet weather will impact Paraguay next week, but should not cause much disruption for corn/soybean plantings

 

Northern Plains: A weak front has moved into the region and may produce some showers for the next couple of days. Better chances exist over the weekend, though. Any rainfall is likely to be disruptive to the harvest and not favorable for even immature crops.

Central/Southern Plains: Warm and largely dry conditions continue in most areas for the next few days, favorable for fieldwork of all kinds. A front will move into the region over the weekend and may produce showers into early next week. Any rainfall would not be favorable for harvest, but would keep soil moisture fairly high for winter wheat planting and establishment.

Midwest: Warm and dry conditions continue for the next few days, favoring fieldwork. A front will try to produce showers as it gets into the region over the weekend, with slightly better chances for widespread showers early next week. Rainfall could be disruptive to maturing crops and harvest.

Delta: Warm and dry weather is favorable for harvest, but not for the river systems, which are drying back out again after getting a nice bump from last week’s rainfall. Largely drier conditions would cause transportation issues for much of the fall season.

Brazil: A front will continue to produce rainfall in southern Brazil over the next several days, favorable for planting and early growth. Central Brazil is much drier and only spotty showers are in the forecast through next week, unfavorable for soybean planting after a round of rain got progress going well ahead of schedule in the region. Seeds that have been planted are at risk of germinating and quickly dying until the rains become more consistent, which looks to occur in mid-October.

Argentina: A front continues over far northern areas with showers over the next couple of days. Most areas have good soil moisture for early planting and establishment. Another front moving through this weekend should produce more widespread rainfall. Soybean planting may begin this week, but most areas will wait for significant planting later on in October.

Europe: Isolated showers continue over eastern areas of the continent for the next few days, particularly in the Balkans which need rain. Another system is forecast to move into the west on Friday with strong winds and widespread rainfall, which will spread through most of the continent this weekend into early next week. Spain is forecast to be left out, which could use more rain.

Black Sea: A system moving through southeastern Europe is promoting more widespread rainfall in Ukraine. Some areas remain very dry though for winter wheat planting and establishment, especially in southwestern Russia. Drier weather is likely for next week and beyond, which may mean only limited benefit from this week’s rainfall.

Australia: The country has gone into a drier stretch, which is somewhat troubling for winter wheat and canola going through their reproductive and fill stages. Some showers will go through southeastern areas over the next couple of days, but most of the country is dry this week. Western areas could see some beneficial rainfall this weekend, however.

China: Weather continues to be mostly favorable for corn and soybean harvest in northeast China. Central China continues to see occasional showers this week, favorable for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment.

 

The player sheet for 10/1 had funds: net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 10,000 corn, buyers of 30,000 soybeans, buyers of 3,000 soymeal, and buyers of 6,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• FEED BARLEY SALE: Jordan’s state grain buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of animal feed barley on Wednesday in an international tender seeking up to 120,000 tons
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 80,550 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan made no purchase in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of wheat on Tuesday.
• WHEAT TENDER: Saudi Arabia seeks to purchase 420,000 MT of hard milling wheat from global suppliers for delivery between Dec. and Jan. 2026, the kingdom’s General Food Security Authority says in a statement.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 157,000 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China and the United States.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

USDA Says WASDE Report Release Suspended Until Further Notice

Key US Department of Agriculture supply and demand report will be suspended until further notice “due to lapse in government funding,” according to a Wednesday statement on the agency’s website.

• Report had been scheduled for Oct. 9

 

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of three analysts.

• The USDA’s export sales report was originally scheduled for Oct. 2 but is delayed indefinitely due to the government shutdown
• Corn est. range 1,400k – 2,000k tons, with avg of 1,700k
• Soybean est. range 500k – 1,600k tons, with avg of 1,250k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 3% to 22.764M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 23.431 mln bbl
• Plant production at 0.995m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.024m

 

StoneX Cuts US Corn Yield Est., Raises Soybean Yield Outlook

US corn yields are estimated at 185.9 bu/acre, down from 186.9 bu/acre last month, advisory StoneX said Wednesday in a survey.

• Corn production seen at 16.737 billion bushels, up from 16.577 billion forecast previously
  • NOTE: The US Department of Agriculture raised its forecast for harvested corn acres in a Sept. 12 report
  • NOTE: USDA next estimate is delayed by the government shutdown
• StoneX sees soybean yield at 53.9 bu/acre, up from 53.2 bu/acre last month
• Soy production climbs to 4.326 billion bushels, compared to 4.257 billion bushels last month

 

Trump says China’s Xi using soy as negotiation tactic ahead of talks

• Trump says he will discuss soybeans in meeting with Xi
• Lack of Chinese buying hurts US soybean farmers
• China avoids US soy as part of negotiations, Trump says

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that soybeans would be a major topic of discussion when he meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping in four weeks.

“The Soybean Farmers of our Country are being hurt because China is, for ‘negotiating’ reasons only, not buying,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Chinese importers have not yet bought soybeans from the autumn U.S. harvest during the trade war between Washington and Beijing, costing U.S. farmers billions of dollars in lost sales.

Autumn is the prime marketing season for U.S. soybeans as farmers bring in fresh crops from their fields. However, China, the world’s top soybean importer, has turned to South America for supplies instead, pressuring U.S. soybean prices.

U.S. Senator John Hoeven of North Dakota, a Republican, said he did not think there was a specific timeline for China to resume purchases of U.S. soy following a briefing on Tuesday with U.S. Ambassador to China David Perdue.

“He didn’t indicate to me sales are imminent,” Hoeven said in an interview. “The discussion was more, we need to keep the pressure on until we get sales and in the meantime be supportive of our farmers.”

In his post, Trump repeated a promise to use proceeds from tariff revenues to help farmers.

Last month, Trump said he and Xi agreed during a call to meet face-to-face in South Korea to discuss a trade conflict that has kept the countries bitterly at odds. The two leaders are set to meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum during the last week of October in Gyeongju, South Korea.

Trump also said he would visit China early next year and that Xi would come to the U.S. at a later date.

Efforts by the countries to lower trade tensions have led to expectations that China could direct more agriculture purchases to the U.S. as part of a deal with Trump.

“Right now, they’re buying from South America and using that to try to put pressure on us in these trade negotiations,” Hoeven said.

In 2020, during Trump’s first term in office, he signed a trade deal with China that included promises to buy tens of billions of dollars in U.S. agricultural products while expanding U.S. access to Chinese agriculture markets.

China never met its agreed purchase targets under the deal, and it has sought to diversify its food sources.

“The essence of China-US economic and trade cooperation is mutual benefit and win-win,” said Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington. “As a matter of principle, we hope the U.S. side will work with China to implement the important common understandings reached by our heads of state in their phone call.”

 

China ramps up Indian rapeseed meal buys after slapping 100% tariff on Canadian imports

China has purchased approximately 52,000 tonnes of Indian rapeseed meal over the past three weeks – a volume Reuters reports is four times its entire 2024 imports from India – in reaction to a newly imposed 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and oil imports.

The move signals Beijing’s intent to reorient sourcing strategies while cushioning domestic markets from the fallout of its retaliation against Canada, and comes amid apprehension over looming supply strains.

In 2024, Canada supplied 2.02mn tonnes of rapeseed meal to China, in the process dwarfing the 13,100 tonnes that China imported from India, Reuters added.

Sources familiar with the transactions indicated that China has been procuring Indian rapeseed meal for prompt delivery at a freight-inclusive cost of $220 to $235 per ton.

India is the world’s third-largest rapeseed producer, but has long grappled with sluggish domestic demand and surplus stockpiles Reuters says. As a result, weak domestic consumption has driven prices down prices to about $200 per ton (FOB), from $248 in February. Should China’s current buying momentum persist, it would become one of the main buyers of rapeseed from the subcontinent, potentially even replacing India’s primary buyers – South Korea, Bangladesh, Thailand and Vietnam, the report says.

 

Mexico sees 32% jump in flesh-eating screwworm cases since August as cases move north

Mexico saw a nearly 32% increase in confirmed cases of the flesh-eating screwworm parasite, according to the latest monthly government data, as a concentration of cases moves north.

Mexico recorded 6,703 cases of animals infested with New World screwworm as of September 13 since the start of the outbreak in November of last year. That was compared to 5,086 confirmed cases during the previous period, which ended August 17.

The latest report by sanitation agency Senasica, which was published on September 26 and seen by Reuters on Wednesday, shows the outbreak is becoming more concentrated as it moves northward through Mexico.

Of the total cases, 5,258 were confirmed in cattle.

The spread of screwworm as it moves closer to the U.S. border has sparked a diplomatic spat between the two trading partners as the U.S. casts blame on Mexico for not doing enough to contain the parasite, which infests and can kill livestock if untreated. The U.S. government has kept its border mostly closed to Mexican cattle imports since May.

There were five confirmed cases in Puebla state for the first time, which is about 80 miles (129 km) from capital Mexico City. There were also 744 cases in Oaxaca state, compared to 453 in the August report.

Veracruz state saw cases nearly double to 476 from 252 a month earlier. Chiapas state, which borders Guatemala, remains the area most affected by the outbreak, with 3,474 confirmed cases, up from 2,875 in August.

Mexico confirmed a case of screwworm in an animal in Nuevo Leon state on September 21, which borders the U.S., and said it was immediately treated to prevent a further outbreak.

In August, the U.S. confirmed its first human case in the United States of travel-associated screwworm from an outbreak-affected country, after Reuters exclusively reported on the case. The last major outbreak of screwworm in the U.S. was from 1972 to 1976 across six states.

The U.S. government shut down much of its operations on Wednesday after Congress and the White House were unable to reach a funding deal, leading to the furlough of about 42,000 USDA staff, roughly half the agriculture agency’s employees.

The agency is expected to use emergency funds to continue animal health programs related to diseases like bird flu and screwworm, according to the agency’s 2025 shutdown contingency plan.

 

Ukraine raises projection for winter wheat area, boosting export prospects

• Ukraine forecast for winter wheat area has been increased by 9%, says deputy economy minister
• Revision follows drought that hit corn and sunflower crops
• Winter wheat is more resilient in extreme weather conditions

Ukraine’s economy ministry has increased its projection for the country’s winter wheat sowing area by 9%, the deputy economy minister says, improving prospects for a boost to exports needed to help fund its defence against Russian forces.

The sowing area for the 2026 winter wheat harvest is now expected to be at least 5.2 million hectares, up from a previous estimate in line with 2025 at 4.78 million hectares, Taras Vysotskiy told Reuters on Wednesday.

The increase comes at the expense of corn and sunflower crops that were hit by drought this year and does not include the area for spring wheat, which is usually estimated at 200,000 hectares.

SUNFLOWER CROP DEVASTATED BY DROUGHT

“I think producers will draw conclusions after this year’s situation,” Vysotskiy said, referring to the drought conditions that almost completely destroyed this year’s sunflower crop and severely reduced yields for corn.

“There will be at least 5.2 million hectares (of winter wheat), mainly because in the southern regions farmers may decide not to sow sunflowers and corn after this year’s weather.”

Vysotskiy did not provide a forecast for the 2026 wheat harvest, but Ukraine produced 22.5 million metric tons in 2025. Ukraine exported 15.7 million tons of wheat in the previous 2024/25 July-June season.

Analyst APK-Inform last month cut its sunflower seed harvest forecast for the second time to 12.9 million metric tons, down from a previous projection of 13.6 million tons. It said that 2025 output could be among the lowest in the past 10 years.

Winter wheat is more resilient and can use moisture reserves that enter the soil throughout autumn, winter and spring. It is less reliant on spring rains than many other crops.

Farmers have already begun sowing wheat and had planted 672,000 hectares by September 25.

Vysotskiy also said that the ministry had reduced its winter barley sowing forecast to about 550,000 hectares from 576,000 hectares. He did not specify reasons for the revision.

 

Favorable profitability and planting conditions to support 2025/26 Argentina’s corn planting and production

2025/26 ARGENTINA CORN PRODUCTION: 54.2 [46.8–61.7] MILLION TONS, UP 8.4% FROM LAST Season

2025/26 Argentina corn production is projected at 54.2 million tons, driven by a 7.4% increase in planted area to 9.42 million hectares as farmers shift from soybeans amid higher profitability and improved management of the spiroplasma disease carried by leafhoppers. Despite possible La Niña impacts and unfavorable long-term weather prospects over the crop’s major growing period from December to February, harvested area is expected at 7.76 million hectares, supporting production increase compared to last season. USDA estimated Argentina corn harvested area and production at 7.5 million hectares and 53 million tons, respectively.

Argentina’s commercial corn area is expected to expand substantially following last season’s drought-induced decrease. This year, June-July corn prices have remained stable or exceeded those of the prior year, while soybean prices have declined from a year ago, due to ample supply in its neighboring Brazil. The relatively high profitability compared to soybeans is incentivizing farmers to shift from soybeans to corn in the 2025/26 season.

Additionally, on July 27, the Argentine government announced permanent reductions in export levies for agricultural products, including corn (12% to 9.5%), soybeans (33% to 26%), and soy by-products (31% to 24.5%). These export tax cuts are expected to enhance farmers’ income and support the expansion of cultivated areas.

Furthermore, Argentine producers are now better prepared to mitigate impacts of the spiroplasma disease, which severely affected the central and northern Pampas region early last year due to an unexpected leafhopper outbreak. The launch of the National Network of Monitoring of Corn Leafhoppers by key government and agricultural associations in 2024 is expected to provide effective support against future outbreaks of the disease. Corn farmers have less concerns on the disease compared to last season.

Current favorable soil moisture conditions across the main Pampas, benefiting from August-September rainfall, also improve prospects of successful planting. Collectively, these factors are likely to result in a significant increase in corn area in the country.

Early-corn planting usually commences in early October, while first-crop soybean planting typically begins in late October. In the previous year, extended dryness and soil moisture deficits forced some corn farmers to delay sowing and shift to soybeans as the season progresses. For the current season, corn farmers are anticipated to initiate planting more proactively and are less likely to shift to soybeans. Nevertheless, the long-term weather forecasts remain unfavorable for corn production, warranting attention. LSEG’s weather research predicts that La Niña conditions will persist through the end of the year and may extend into early next year. Historically, La Niña conditions have been associated with hot and dry weather in the main Pampas region, and the country’s poorest harvests have coincided with La Niña events. Therefore, close monitoring of the development of La Niña and growing-season weather is critical, despite current favorable weather conditions.

 

Argentina soybean production may fall in 2025/26 amid low area and weather challenges

2025/26 ARGENTINA SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 47.4 [42.3–52.5] MILLION TONS

2025/26 Argentina soybean production is initially set at 47.4 [42.3–52.5] million tons, down 6.9% from last season, amid significant acreage shifts expected toward its major competing crop, corn, and unfavorable long-term weather prospects over the crop’s prime growing period from December-February with the loom of La Niña, despite rather healthy current soil moisture conditions thanks to abundant rains during August/September and favorable recent export tax reductions. Much of the decrease in production is attributed to lower planted area, which is provisionally projected at 16.72 million hectares, down 4.5% compared to last season. Our current planted area outlook is above 16.4 million hectares reported by Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario, but well below the Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires’ 17.6 million hectares. Both our harvested area and production estimates are pegged below the USDA’s latest projection of 16.5 million hectares and 48.5 million tons, respectively.

Argentina’s soybean area is looking to fall greatly from last season, when corn farmers’ aggressive switch to soy led to a near 8-year high harvested area despite lack of moisture and persistent dryness. This season the direction of acreage shift will likely be reversed and a great corn area expansion at the expense of soy is expected, as corn’s comparative advantage over soy overwhelms its minor shortcomings. Much of the acreage shift is deemed to stem from the recent export tax policy changes that took place back in July. On 27 July, the Argentine government implemented permanent reductions in export levies for several agricultural products, including corn (12% to 9.5%), soybeans (33% to 26%), and soy by-products (31% to 24.5%). While tax reductions across all categories should help both corn and soy farmers, corn farmers are expected to benefit the most, with the first sub-10% tax rates since 2017. Corn farmers are now better prepared against the fear of spiroplasma crop disease as well, which plagued the whole central/northern Pampas area early last year due to the unexpected spread of leafhoppers. The National Network of Monitoring of Corn Leafhoppers, which launched in 2024 by major governmental/agricultural associations, is expected to give corn farmers huge confidence, who were timid about planting corn hence reduced area last season. As corn and soybeans directly compete against each other domestically, the corn area expansion will immediately materialize soybean area shrinkage this season in Argentina. One encouraging factor for soybean farmers is the current healthy soil moisture conditions throughout the main Pampas, which unlike the same time last year benefited greatly from August/September rains. Provided that moderate/dry weather is to follow after early October, overall planting conditions should be favorable.

One important variable for acreage estimation is planting progress. First crop soybean planting typically starts during late October (vs. corn’s early October kick-offs), and soy in general has a narrower planting window compared to corn in Argentina. Unlike last year, when the lack of moisture and abnormal dryness inspired some corn farmers to put plantings on hold and switch to soybeans later in the sowing season, this season corn farmers should start planting champaign more proactively and aggressively, less likely to switch to soybeans later on. Meanwhile, the overall long-term weather outlooks are not in the soybean farmers favor, warranting attention. The La Niña event is forecast to prevail through the end of the year and may not completely dissipate by early next year (according to the LSEG Weather Research team’s latest December-February ENSO analysis). La Niña conditions are most frequently associated with hot and dry weather in the main Pampas region. Argentina’s very worst harvests occurred during La Niña events historically, which warrants close attention despite initially favorable conditions at the moment.

 

 

 

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