Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
US government is shutdown. Grains are lower after US stocks report and potential increase US harvest pressure. USDA’s contingency plan for a government shutdown shows that farmer payments for a key conservation program and the farm program safety net programs and no USDA reports will go out, but the gathering of market news will continue. US stocks are lower. USD is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is higher. Most of Midwest remains dry which should aid harvest. S Brazil and N Argentina rains. Rest of Brazil too dry.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 9.95.There were 425 soyoil deliveries and 207 soymeal. USDA est Sep 1 stocks soybean stocks near 316 mil bu. USDA raised US 2024/25 residual to 52 mil bu and left crush unch at 2,430 and exports also unch at 1,875. One group est US 2025/26 crush at 2,545 and exports at 1,390 which leaves carryout at 530 vs USDA 300. Nearby Brazil soybean premiums were higher trying to offset lower futures and dry Brazil weather.
CORN
CZ is near 4.13 and traded below key support at 4.18 after bearish USDA stocks report. USDA est Sep 1 stocks near 1,532 mil bu vs 1,337 expected and 1,763 ly and above highest trade est. USDA raised US 2024 crop 25 mil bu and lowered US 2024/25 residual 182 mil bu and left exports unch at 2,830. One group est US 2025/26 ethanol use at 5,550 mil bu, residual 5,950 and exports at 2,750 which leaves carryout at 2,669 vs USDA 2,110. USDA China Ag attaché est China corn crop up 3 mmt to 298 and imports down 16 mmt to only 7 mmt. BAGE est Argentina 2026 crop at 58 mmt vs USDA 53. Matif corn futures dropped to 19 month low.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.04. KWZ is near 4.92. MWZ is near 5.62. USDA est Sep 1 wheat stocks near 2,120 mil bu vs USDA 1,992 last year. USDA also est US 2025 wheat crop at 1,985 and above highest trade est. HRW crop was est at 804 mil bu vs 769 previous, SRW 353 vs 339 and other spring 497 vs 484. One group dropped US wheat exports 50 mil bu from USDA 900 est. This and higher crop would increase their US carryout to 951 mil bu vs USDA 844. Matif wheat futures made new lows.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
