Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. Bears feel market overreacted to Fridays USDA report. Funds were active buyers of corn and soybeans on Friday on positive tech actions but on the week net sellers. US weekend Midwest was mostly dry with above normal temps. There is talk that the Midwest blocking pattern may break down with better rains for west Midwest and east the coming weekend. No new trade news from US and China meeting in Spain. US Central Bank is expected to drop rates 25 basis points this week.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.40. Key resistance is 10.50. USDA est US 24/25 soybean carryout at 330 mil bu vs USDA 330. USDA est US 25/26 soybean carryout at 300 mil bu vs USDA 290. USDA est US crop at 4,301 mil bu vs USDA August 4,292. USDA est US 25/26 crush at 2,555 mil bu vs 2,430 ly and exports 1,685 mil bu vs 1,875 ly. Bears est exports closer to 1,440 and carryout at 495. August NOPA crush is est at 182.8 mil bu vs 158.0 ly. USDA left 24/25 soybean crop to 169.0 vs private est near 171.0. One group est Brazil 25/26 soybean crop at 180.0 mmt vs USDA 175.0. There were 20 new soybean deliveries, 161 soyoil, 3 meal.
CORN
CZ is near 4.25. Key resistance is 4.35. USDA est US 24/25 corn carryout at 1,325 mil bu vs USDA August 1,305. USDA est US 25/26 corn carryout at 2,110 mil bu vs USDA August 2,117. USDA est US crop at 16,814 mil bu vs USDA August 16,742. USDA est 25/26 feed/residual use near 6,100 vs 5,675 ly, ethanol use at 5,600 vs 5,435 ly and exports at 2,975 mil bu vs 2,830 ly. Bears feel exports will be closer to 2,600 and carryout closer to 2,685 mil bu. There were 36 new corn deliveries.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.21. WZ range 4.90-5.40. KWZ is near 5.11. USDA est US 25/26 wheat carryout at 844 mil bu vs USDA August 869. USDA est World 25/26 wheat end stocks at 264.0 mmt vs 260.1 in August. USDA estimate EU wheat crop at 140.1 mmt vs USDA August 138.3. They est Russia 85.0 vs 83.5, Canada 36.0 and 35.0. USDA increased World exports to 214.7 mmt vs 213.5 in August. Bears feel this could be 8-10 mmt too high. There is now new Chicago or HRS deliveries but 22 new KC deliveries .
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