Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are unchanged to slightly lower. US stocks are slightly higher. USD is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is higher. US Midwest forecast is mostly dry but cool. Rain today in IA, WI and N IL. US increased sanctions against Iran and could increase sanctions on Russia. Trump threatening sending troops into Chicago.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.41. Dalian soybean and soymeal appear range bound, vegoil higher. USDA dropped US soybean crop rating 4 points to 65 pct G/E. Rating suggest US yield near 186.7. Crop ratings drop in IL, MI, OH and TN. IA is rated 77 pct GE, NE 74, AR 65. 11 pct of crop is dropping leaves. Weekly US soybean exports were 17.3 mil bu. Season to date export are 1,828 mil bu vs 1,643 or up 11pct vs ly. USDA goal is 1,875 vs 1,700 last year. USDA est global trade near 181.7 mmt vs 177.8 ly. US 51.0 vs 46.2 and Brazil 102.1 vs 104.1 last year. SMZ-SMH spread widened to -10 on talk of higher supply.
CORN
CZ is near 4.21 and 6 week high. Dalian corn futures near 2 week high. Matif corn are making new lows. Corn has rallied on concern over lower east corn yields and good US exports. Some feel US farmers should increase 25 cash sales near 4.25 CZ and 26 crop sales near 4.65 CZ26. USDA dropped US corn crop rating 2 points to 69 pct G/E. Rating suggest US yield near 52.9. Crop ratings drop in IL and OH. IA is rated 84 pct GE, NE 76, MN 73. 15 pct of crop is mature. Weekly US soybean exports were 55.3 mil bu. Season to date export are 2,636 mil bu vs 2,049. USDA goal is 2,820 vs 2,255 last year. USDA est global trade near 193.6 mmt vs 192.5 ly. US 71.6 vs 57.2 and Brazil 43.0 vs 38.2 last year.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.27. WZ range 5.00-5.50. WZ-WH -16 and lowest carry since March. KWZ is near 5.11. MWZ is near 5.72 and new lows. HRS futures dropped on increase harvest pressure. USDA est US spring wheat harvest near 72 pct. US wheat exports are up 15 pct vs ly and USDA up 6. US exports will see increase competition over next 6 months. Matif, Argentina and Australia wheat futures are lower. Australia increased crop est to 33.8 mmt. USDA IS 31.0.
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