Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were up $.00 ½ to $.01 ½ today in 2 sided trade. Spreads eased a bit with Sept/Dec reaching a new low at ($.24). Dec-25 corn has still not been able to break out of Monday’s range. Near term resistance at $4.11 with support at the CL of $3.92. The PF crop tour pegged corn yields in IN and NE above their YA forecast, however below the USDA yield est. from last Tues. Crop ratings in Iowa remain at their highest level in years. The USDA announced the sales of 100k mt (4 mil. bu.) of corn to Colombia and 126k mt (5 mil. bu.) to Mexico, both for the 25/26 MY. Ethanol production slumped to a 12 week low at 1,072 tbd, or 315 mil. gallons, down from 321 mil. the previous week, and down 2.4% YOY. There was 107 mil. bu. of corn used in the production process last week, or 15.26 mil. bu. per day, above the 14.92 needed to reach the USDA forecast of 5.470 bil. Ethanol stocks rebounded slightly to 22.7 mil. barrels, in line with expectations while below YA inventories at 23.6 mb. Cheaper corn has propped up operating margins. Export sales are expected to range from 32-66 mil. bu. The BAGE is forecasting Argentine corn acre’s will grow 9.6% in the 25/26 growing season to 7.8 mil. HA.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mostly higher with beans up $.02, meal was up $1-$4 while oil was down 40-50 points. Bean spreads were little changed, nearby meal spreads soared while oil spreads eased. Inside trade for Nov-25 beans as it continues to consolidate between LW’s high at $10.49 ¼ and its 100 day MA support at $10.26. Next support for Sep-25 oil is the 100 day MA just above $.51 lbs., a level it hasn’t closed below since Mch-25. Sept-25 meal surged to a 2 month high while closing above its 100 day MA also for the first time since Mch-25. Spot board crush margins recovered another $.02 ½ to $1.90 ½ bu. with bean oil PV reaching a fresh 2 month low at 46.7%. New crop margins slipped $.03 to $1.84 bu. The trade continues to worry over pending decisions from the EPA on small refinery exemptions and the possibility it could cut into soybean oil demand for the production of biofuels. US weather will see a much cooler/dryer pattern across much of the nation’s midsection into the end of Aug. Favorable after bouts of heavy rains in recent weeks across the NC regions. Some scattered rains are expected for dry areas in the northern Delta region with better prospects for significant moisture early in week 2 of the outlook. Pod counts in IN were slightly below YA, however well above the 3 year Ave. Pod counts in NE were up 15% from YA. Tour participants will cover IL and W. IA today before concluding this year’s event in Rochester MN on Thur. Yesterday the American Soybean Association wrote a letter to Pres. Trump urging him to prioritize soybean purchases by China as part of any trade agreement with the world’s 2nd largest economy. To date China has not purchased any new crop beans from the US. Of the 11.67 mmt of soybeans China imported in July, 10.4 mmt (89%) came from Brazil while only 3.6% were sourced from the US. Export sales tomorrow are expected to range from 5-45 mil. bu. for beans, 0-400k tons of meal and -5-15k tons of oil.
WHEAT
Prices were higher across the 3 classes today ranging from $.01-$.02 better in KC and MIAX to $.07 higher in CGO. All 3 classes have exhibited 2 sided trade. Early weakness saw Sept-25 CGO and KC trade down to new contract lows. Sept-25 CGO established a key reversal day, perhaps an indication the market may have exhausted the near-term selling as prices dipped below $5.00 bu. Spot KC traded to its lowest level in nearly 5 years. SovEcon raised their 2025 Russian production forecast by .2 mmt up to 85.4 mmt, vs. the USDA forecast of 83.5 mmt. Growing productions est. in Russia while slow shipments from the Black Sea region have weighed on prices as of late. Syria is reportedly seeking up to 200k mt of wheat to make up for domestic shortfalls however no tender date has been set. Australia’s Bureau of Statistics shows they exported 2.54 mmt of wheat in June, down slightly from the 2.592 in May-25. In the MY to date they have shipped 17.6 mmt with their largest buyers being Indonesia – 2.78 mmt, Philippines – 2.12 mmt and China with 1.36 mmt. Tomorrow’s export sales are expected to range from 18-30 mil. bu.
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